2021 Dynasty Rookie Draft First Look: Running Backs
The beauty of the dynasty format is the fact it’s a 365-day affair. While the regular season may be over, we now turn our full attention to the 2021 draft class.
Truth be told, we here at DLF never truly take our eyes off the horizon when it comes to assessing tomorrow’s fantasy talent and this is evidenced simply by looking at our weekly content coverage. We fully understand whether you just hoisted your league trophy or were on the outside looking in, dynasty coaches are always interested in assessing next year’s class. After all, there’s never a guarantee the stars of tomorrow are going to be selected highly in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts. In recent years, there’s an expanding number of productive players coming out of fantasy rounds two, three, and even four or beyond. Ask Justin Herbert or James Robinson managers about the potential of late-round rookie selections.
Rookie mock drafts are all the rage once the off-season begins and they’re what keeps dynasty fun. There’s always a reason for excitement (regardless of your record) once the season comes to a close. Savvy dynasty coaches know how to assess their squads prior to the league trade deadline in order to make moves to set up their team(s) for the future. But it’s a moving target. No two drafts are the same and each year brings varying levels of depth for the incoming rookie class. It’s always a balance between assessing your team needs and the projected depth at those positions within the draft.
Hopefully, you saw the first part of this series covering the wide receivers, if not, you can find it here.
I’m now turning my attention to the running backs of the 2021 NFL Draft. What follows is my initial top-ten at the position based on my own film review. And with that last statement comes my obligatory statement about rookie analysis, film review and player assessment.
Anyone can call themselves an analyst. Be very careful in who you choose to follow, especially given the rise of Twitter and other social networks. Always ensure they do their own work, assessment and, most of all, make sure they are completely objective when it comes to evaluating talent for the next level. Ask questions in order to determine their level of expertise and understanding of the player and his strengths and weaknesses. No analyst will be correct 100% of the time, not even close. But those who do their own work, have studied their subject and review their past work will rise to the top and are worthy of your time.
As for myself, my objectivity is my calling card. I’ve performed rookie scouting for 20 years, use my own set of scoring sheets tweaked over that time with help from some of those I trust in the industry and am continually honing them for greater accuracy. This year I’m transitioning to a new format and am excited about the potential results which will yield prospect scores. But it all comes down to watching film to identify those subtle traits to highlight which players have an edge at the next level. It takes a lot of time, but I’m a firm believer that time spent is the best investment.
Let’s have some fun!
2021 Running Backs
In short, the 2021 class of running backs possesses a tremendous amount of risk. This isn’t a rare occurrence as running backs can be notoriously difficult to project to the next level.
Arguably more than other positions, the running back is at the mercy of many factors out of their control. Scheme, fit, offensive line and coaching all loom large in the equation of any back once drafted. Yes, this also applies to other positions as well but when combined with the relatively narrow set of attributes which determines feast or famine at the NFL level for running backs, I’ve found the position is particularly susceptible to poor drafted situation and team variability. Combine this with a short career and physical abuse, thus greater potential for catastrophic injury and assessment of rookies becomes a minefield for any analyst and NFL coaching staff.
These thoughts also play out in the NFL as well. There’s a reason why the highly-drafted NFL running back is becoming a thing of the past. Even top backs at the collegiate level are often falling into the second rounds of the NFL Draft. It’s the rare specimen who is selected in the top half of the first round. I see nothing immediately challenging that trend in the future though I have noted a minor shift relating to size which may provide an opportunity for dynasty coaches. Again, the narrow set of attributes, wear and tear and even role specialization are at work to diminish the draft value of the NFL running back.
On the heels of a phenomenal 2020 running back class, of which only one (Edwards-Helaire) was a first-round selection, 2021 pales in comparison. In my estimation, there are only three worthy candidates for top consideration and all three are very different in style. Beyond these top names, there exists extreme variability and risk. So much so that my initial analysis suggests only three backs should be dynasty first-round selections. That said, drafted situation could elevate at least two of these backs into the back-end of the first round in dynasty.
This thin tier of talent isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, if you have need at the position, second round draft selections will be your friend. Similar to Antonio Gibson and Zack Moss in 2020, there will be value to be found.
Let’s get to the players, listed in my current ranked order.
Najee Harris, Alabama
6’1/230 lbs.
Age: 22 – Senior
Harris is this year’s 1A to Travis Etienne, my 1B and this is subject to change.
There’s a lot to like about Harris and I’ll admit I had him as my clear RB2 behind Etienne before getting in film review. First box checked for me is increasing production and workload without a concern about too much work, especially for a back of his size. As seen in his stat box, he’s shown increasing production in all aspects of play, though I particularly like his use out of the backfield as a receiver. His yards per carry average could be better but it’s still at the low end of the range I seek for a top back.
Film review shows a versatile runner who won’t be pigeon-holed at the next level. He combines his thick body with a leg drive to consistently churn out positive yardage, even when neutrally contacted at the line of scrimmage. Agility and fluidity are evident, at least enough to complement his size. He has superior balance at-and-through first-contact and his ability to lower his shoulder into contact when combined with his center of gravity will cause issues at the second level in the NFL similar to that of Derrick Henry.
He runs higher than I’d like to see but it’s difficult to avoid at his size. He lacks a breakaway second gear and will get caught from behind in the NFL but this is only a very small deduction and his size will mitigate many trailing defenders. Pass protection is fair at best and should improve in the NFL as well. He doesn’t utilize his strong base or foundation as well as he could and I saw moments of costly indecision in his reads. Both should improve.
Harris profiles very differently than that of Etienne but I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t become a better per-carry average runner. This may not result in being the best back from 2021, but he’s a good bet for solid production with a top pick in dynasty drafts should you need an upside runner.
Travis Etienne, Clemson
5’10/205 lbs.
Age: 22 – Senior
There’s no reason to get cute when assessing Clemson’s Travis Etienne. Whether you have Harris or Etienne at the top of your board, you’re justified in the ranking. For as different as they are as runners, they both project very well to the next level.
Etienne possesses better speed than Harris, likely in the 4.45 range from my tape review. He’s rarely caught from behind at the second level and maintains clean separation from defenders with inferior angles. What I love about Etienne is his elite level of fluid, forward-biased patience. What I mean by this is his organic approach to the line of scrimmage is one of measured patience while waiting for blocks to form or a seam to be presented. When combined with his elite level of acceleration, he waits patiently for the opportunity with forward momentum, accelerating quickly to gain leverage. When watching many runners, you’ll note an almost forced patience or lack of fluidity. This is not present with Etienne.
Once to first contact, Etienne’s superior balance and swivel at his hips provide for an almost ridiculous level of foundation upon contact. This plays out in the form of lateral push, side-step or 360-spin where his foundation remains intact and little momentum is lost. This is seen routinely on Etienne’s film and it allows him to churn out long gains which should remain, at least to some degree, in the NFL.
He offers plus-level receiving ability and can remain on the field in all down and distance situations. In an NFL looking more for committee backs, Etienne has the ability to be considered for all roles – important for your dynasty needs.
I would like to see Travis Etienne add weight/strength at the next level to improve leg drive but without impacting fluidity or agility. He’s willing in pass protection but doesn’t grade highly. Ball security is a slight concern and I’d like to see him keep his carrying elbow close to his side. This could be exploited at the NFL level, which may threaten his workload.
Should Etienne fall to the end of the NFL Draft’s first round to a team with a solid offensive line in his rookie year, he’ll likely ascend to my top overall rookie back for 2021.
Javonte Williams, North Carolina
5’10/220 lbs.
Age: 20 – Junior
No player has risen more quickly than Javonte Williams (regardless of position), on my draft board. LSU receiver Terrace Marshall is a close-second but the more tape I watch of Williams, the more I’m intrigued by his combination of skill set, size and age.
Checking the box for production, North Carolina leaned on both Williams and fellow rookie Michael Carter equally over the past two seasons, keeping both further off the radar than they otherwise would have been. Should Williams have seen a 50% increase in workload in 2020, he could be in discussion as one of the top-two backs in this year’s class. While on the outside looking in, I believe he remains in the discussion as is.
Williams plays to his strengths well. His thick lower base and tremendous leg drive punishes defenders approaching from inferior angles. He exhibits plus-level and natural patience approaching the line of scrimmage with adequate burst to gain leverage and attack. He also runs well behind his pads to increase the effectiveness of his size. His platform on first contact nearly always produces positive yardage and potential for broken tackles. He even excels at running off his blocks.
While Williams does not possess elite-level receiver production, he appears capable with good hand usage while maintaining forward momentum. Skills as a receiver appear confident, natural and not forced or mechanical. He won’t “wow” with speed but possesses enough to be effective.
Not 21 years of age yet, Javonte Williams is firmly fixed as my rookie RB3 and likely won’t be moving from that ranking. If you’re holding a mid-first selection, your hope is the hype of Williams due to lack of NFL Combine allows you to secure him in the second half of the first round in rookie drafts.
Trey Sermon, RB Ohio State
6’/213 lbs.
Age: 22 – Senior
Don’t let the lack of elite production fool you, Trey Sermon is a solid NFL prospect.
After three years at Oklahoma, Sermon transferred to Ohio State for his senior season in hopes of finding a more prominent role and, while he only garnered 116 rushing attempts, he produced a career high 7.5 yards per carry average while scoring four rushing touchdowns. In his third year at Oklahoma, he tore his ACL but showed no significant impairment during his senior season.
Clearly not in the top-three at the position in this year’s draft, Sermon’s value will largely depend on drafted situation and his projected early-career role. He’s a solid, though not gifted, runner. He possesses ‘good enough’ speed at all levels and has passable lateral agility to forced missed tackles. He’s fluid but not dynamic. Long speed is passable. As a receiver, he’s a mystery but would seem to present as a back who could develop in this area.
My biggest knocks against Sermon are his ‘rolling’ nature in and out of cuts and his nearly straight-up running style. He’s a back who will get what’s blocked but will likely struggle to create yardage in traffic or messy line of scrimmage. His thin lower body should benefit from weight room focus.
While it may seem that I’m down on Sermon at the next level, that isn’t the case. He possesses many traits of successful backs in the NFL and reminds me of DeMarco Murray from Oklahoma, eliciting the same feelings while watching his film. There’s upside here and he’ll be an intriguing dynasty rookie target if he falls into the second round of rookie drafts as is expected.
Kylin Hill, Mississippi State
5’10/214 lbs.
Age: 22 – Senior
I’ll be higher on Kylin Hill than most of the fantasy community. In film review, Hill has an “it” factor I can’t specifically put my finger on but it’s most certainly a prevailing feeling I see when watching tape. It’s visible somewhere between his presence (confidence), dynamic and versatility with the ball in his hands. He possesses a build I like in my running backs, a squat 5’10 with live legs and impressive lower-body explosion.
Garnering only 15 carries in 2020, Hill opted-out of the remainder of 2020 due to Covid to prepare for the NFL Draft. He only has 452 rushing attempts on his collegiate resume’, good for 2,535 yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average. He’s not a ‘burner’ but possesses adequate long speed. He’s quick to the corner and has a natural feel for lanes, quickly squaring his shoulders off his plant-foot and exploding into the second level. As a receiver, he possesses natural fluidity and capable hands.
While Hill didn’t have a ball security problem at Mississippi State, I have seen periods of sloppy technique, often times allowing his elbow to fly away from his body and the ball with it – this will need to be corrected at the next level or it could cost him snaps when exploited.
When reviewing tape, I find myself reminded of Kareem Hunt.
Chuba Hubbard, RB Oklahoma State
6’1/207 lbs.
Age: 21 – Junior
There may be no greater mystery in 2021 than that of Chuba Hubbard. Producing 2,094 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2019 will put any player on the map. Note that impressive yardage total did come on an astounding 328 carries, producing a 6.4 yards per carry average. Good but not great. In the same year, he also chipped in with 23 receptions, his second season surpassing 20.
When apparent he would not have a follow-on season in 2020, Hubbard opted-out of the remainder to begin preparations for the NFL Draft. While he did score five touchdowns over seven games, his effectiveness dipped to a pedestrian 4.7 yards per carry average.
Hubbard’s tape profiles a player who does most things well, but falls well short of elite. He’s adequate across all skills but not overly dynamic in any. Acceleration is solid yet not special and he lacks a second gear but that does not mean his speed is lacking. He’s an efficient downhill runner with an NFL skill-set.
You’ll likely have an opportunity in your dynasty second round rookie draft as the Twitter group-think train believes Hubbard isn’t worthy of high consideration and that his 2,000-yard 2019 season was an anomaly. While he did run through many sizable holes on his way to 2,000 yards, it doesn’t take away from the production. Though he doesn’t possess the intangibles to carry a high level of intrigue, he comps well to the Steelers’ James Conner, who, if he could remain healthy, may be one of the top backs in the NFL. Beyond the comp to Conner, I’m also reminded of NFL standout Arian Foster.
This is a case where you need to fade the Twitter trend. His NFL Draft selection will be one to watch and a second-round rookie selection in dynasty should be a fine value.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB Memphis
5’11/191 lbs.
Age: 21 – Junior
A one-year-wonder, Gainwell opted out of the 2020 season to prepare for the NFL Draft. My hope is much of this preparation is spent in the weight room where he will need to add weight to raise his draft stock.
In his single significant year at Memphis (well known for producing NFL running backs), Gainwell displayed agility, speed and dynamic, all in abundance, while also displaying extremely capable hands as a receiver. In today’s NFL, where role playing running backs can be significant producers, Gainwell projects well into this role. With added weight could come increased workload on early downs but I won’t project him into the top five here at the position.
There’s no questioning Gainwell’s complete collegiate game but much like receivers less than 6’, I can’t project running backs less than 200 lbs. to begin their career on par with larger backs. That said, should he tip the scales at 200 lbs. or greater closer to the draft, there could be upside to 208-210 lbs. in time which would bode well for his NFL career.
Michael Carter, RB North Carolina
5’7/202 lbs.
Age: 21 – Senior
I’ve found myself returning to Michael Carter’s tape multiple times attempting to assess his ceiling in the NFL. He finished his collegiate career in impressive fashion with an 8.0 yards per carry average across 156 attempts and would have had a monster season if he hadn’t shared the field with fellow rookie Javonte Williams.
I don’t see a carry-the-load role at the next level though his style and upside are similar to Los Angeles Charger Austin Ekeler. Carter runs more physically than his 5’7” size with enough lateral agility to leverage small creases and seams. He’s a solid receiver out of the backfield with good hand usage and fluidity. He’s also primarily a one-cut runner but with good awareness and agility in traffic. He excels on his approach to the line of scrimmage with patience and has natural vision once into the second level. He’s not extremely loose in the hips with only average swivel but enough to get the job done to find extra yardage.
I particularly like his ball security intelligence and he has no fumbling concerns. Upside in the NFL will likely be limited unless utilized in an offense similar to Ekeler, Darren Sproles or Devin Singletary, though he’s shy in the dynamic of all three. Keep him on your radar and we’ll analyze his drafted situation to better determine upside.
Jermar Jefferson, RB Oregon State
5’10/211 lbs.
Age: 20 – Junior
Jefferson doesn’t leap off the page in any film review session, but he does profile as a one-cut zone-scheme downhill runner who has the lower leg drive to move the pile. I’ll be curious to see any official measurement of his size as he appears bigger than his listed 211 lbs.
Jefferson didn’t get much work as a receiver outside of his 25 receptions as a freshman but in the little work I did review, I didn’t flag a poor technique or significant concerns. He showed good hand usage into the fluidity of the route without lost momentum from catch-point to transitioning his head up-field.
Jefferson isn’t going to provide much speed to the corner and only possesses limited agility but he’s an efficient runner who could carve out an early-down role if presented an opportunity. Stiff in the hips, his running style reminds me of Baltimore’s Gus Edwards though with a lighter build. Without a surprise in the NFL Draft, looks like a late-third-round dynasty rookie draft prospect at best.
Jaret Patterson, RB Buffalo
5’9/195 lbs.
Age: 21 – Junior
Another smaller back similar to North Carolina’s Michael Carter above, though I prefer Carter’s vision and lateral agility to that of Patterson. He was solid in his three years at Buffalo as a runner but is a project as a receiver, limiting his upside at the NFL level early in his career.
Patterson is missing that true second gear though possesses passable long speed and sufficient balance and pad-level at first contact to churn out extra yardage. He’s also not overly loose in the hips but with enough agility to get skinny when needed. Excellent ball security awareness and technique, improving with each season.
My belief is Patterson will be over-drafted in dynasty rookie drafts and I’m already seeing some hype on Twitter which will only pick up in volume. His 2020 season stats are just too impressive not to create intrigue and hype, including an eight touchdown, 409-yard game. In reviewing tape, it’s far more a construct of a dominant offensive line against poor competition than Patterson’s transcendent ability. To wit, in his only game against a ranked opponent (#15 Penn State in 2019), he produced his lowest regular season per carry average (3.1) over his past two seasons, gaining 71 yards on 23 attempts.
My criticisms are not to say Jaret Patterson is without ability, and even upside, but he’s not an overly intriguing prospect for the next level and multiple tumblers will need to fall for him to realize an impressive level of consistent production.
Summary
The 2021 rookie running back class is extremely top heavy with significant risk outside the top-three in my opinion. As each draft provides multiple surprises with top backs drafted into less-than-ideal situations, dynasty teams needing to address the position should at least consider trade alternatives rather than risking selections with a mid-round pick.
Considering the strength of the quarterback class in combination with sufficient depth at wide receiver and even one rookie first-round tight end, it’s not out of the realm of possibility only three running backs (Harris, Etienne, and Williams) are selected in the first round of rookie drafts. Plan accordingly.
Hope you enjoyed a look at my top-ten rookie running backs of 2021. Stay tuned for my first look at the 2021 rookie quarterbacks.
Follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
- Lineup Advice: Wrap-up, Thank You and Goodbye (TTFN) - January 1, 2024
- Lineup Advice: Week 17 – Championship Edition - December 26, 2023
- Lineup Advice: Week 16 – The “What is” Edition - December 19, 2023
