2021 Dynasty Capsule: Pittsburgh Steelers
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
The Pittsburgh Steelers finished 12-4 and won another AFC North title but their dynasty roster was a mixed bag and, in some ways, is a puzzle. It features three running backs with ADPs in the 100s. Its top three wide receivers are all 24 or younger and within seven ADP spots of one another. Their quarterback is still producing as a low-end QB1 at 38 years old.
Let’s examine the full roster from a dynasty perspective.
QUARTERBACK
Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 265, QB 35) (Superflex ADP 102, QB 28)
Age: 38
Big Ben recovered from a career-threatening elbow injury to post another QB1 season. He is an unrestricted free agent after 2021, so contending fantasy managers may be able to wring another year of value from him. He costs a mid-second round rookie pick in superflex/2QB leagues per the Dynasty Trade Analyzer – a price that seems to work for both contending buyers and rebuilding sellers.
Mason Rudolph (ADP NA, QB NA) (Superflex ADP 238, QB 43)
Age: 25
Rudolph once seemed to be next in line to lead the Steelers. But after three years he has more sacks taken than touchdowns thrown. His career adjusted yards per pass attempt (5.9) would have ranked 31st in the NFL in 2020, and he adds nothing on the ground, with 36 rushing yards and zero touchdowns in 15 career games.
RUNNING BACK
James Conner (ADP 104, RB 33)
Age: 25
The dynasty community was never completely sold on Conner even when he was fantasy’s RB7 in 2018. His value is falling but he can still fetch a mid-second round rookie pick or a player such as Jarvis Landry.
The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
Conner is an unrestricted free agent. It is hard to see a team committing to him as a clear RB1. Trade him for a second-round rookie pick and run.
Anthony McFarland (ADP 144, RB 48)
Age: 22
McFarland is the most valuable of the young, unimpressive backs who could succeed Conner. At 5’8” and 208 pounds he possesses a nice blend of size (81st percentile BMI) and speed. He was a solid producer in college and has fourth-round draft capital.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
But his rookie season was disappointing with just 39 touches for 167 total yards.
The Steelers are strapped for cap space but they have a full complement of draft picks absent a fifth-rounder. They will look to win in Roethlisberger’s final year. It is hard to see them doing so with their existing backfield, so dynasty managers should not count on McFarland (or the other incumbents) to assume RB1 duties.
Benny Snell (ADP 153, RB 52)
Age: 22
Still just 22 years old after two NFL seasons, Snell has done little to secure a role in Pittsburgh. His recent bump in value is already reversing.
The DLF Dynasty Trade Finder suggests he is a trade throw-in ingredient.
Jaylen Samuels (ADP 278, RB 92)
Age: 24
Remember when Samuels was primed for a more prominent role because the Steelers running backs coach was his coach at NC State? In fairness, he was able to leverage his receiving ability for 47 receptions in 2019 but that production dried up in 2020, when he earned just 14 targets and produced only 74 yards from scrimmage. He can be dropped in all but the deepest leagues.
WIDE RECEIVER
JuJu Smith-Schuster (ADP 42, WR 18)
Age: 24
JJSS produced two top-15 years before the age of 23. His WR22 finish this season was his best since then, but his ADP is suffering.
DLF’s Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
He was once a borderline first-round startup pick who is now worth a mid-first round rookie pick.
His usage is part of the puzzle. Even when he split time with Antonio Brown, who was producing as a top-two fantasy WR, Smith-Schuster was getting better quality targets than he did in 2020. Now, his average depth of target of 5.5 yards is 60% of what it used to be, and the team is spreading its targets around.
DLF’s Air Yards App.
As a result, Pittsburgh’s top three receivers have all converged within seven spots of dynasty ADP.
DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
Smith-Schuster is a 24-year-old unrestricted free agent. Even this season, in which rookie drafts will feature a quality wide receiver class, I am willing to bet on his resume and pay a first-rounder for him.
Diontae Johnson (ADP 45, WR 21)
Age: 24
Johnson saw the most targets of PIT’s top three receivers but produced the fewest fantasy points. Perhaps counterintuitively, this may be a positive. His production was the least dependent upon touchdowns. TDs are lumpy. Targets, receptions, and yards are more reliable. Whereas 8.3% of Claypool’s receptions resulted in a TD, Johnson scored on 4.9% of targets.
The Percentage Fantasy Points App.
As the leader among returning WRs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, Johnson’s current ADP could represent nice value relative to Claypool.
Chase Claypool (ADP 49, WR 24)
Age: 22
Claypool’s dynasty value changed completely after his four-touchdown performance in week five. But over the course of the season, he was not just a red-zone threat. His average depth of target was 2.5 times that of JuJu’s and 69% more than Johnson’s. It ranked 13th among all NFL WRs (min 6.0 targets per game). His actual TD production exceeded his expected TB production by 56%.
Statistics from 4for4.com.
He also had the fewest targets and lowest share of targets among the three. Who knows, with JJSS gone, increased volume may make up for an incoming decline in efficiency, but it is not certain.
James Washington (ADP 172, WR 77)
Age: 24
Washington has been passed by Johnson and Claypool. However, there is value in Pittsburgh’s WR3 role. He had a stellar collegiate profile and has second-round draft capital. He has also shown flashes – he surpassed 700 yards receiving in his second season. At this point he is an end of bench stash who can be acquired for a mid-third-round rookie pick.
TIGHT END
Eric Ebron (ADP 182, TE 21)
Age: 27
Ebron quietly compiled a TE14 season on the strength of 91 targets, the second-most of his career. He is signed with Pittsburgh through 2021, his positional ADP (TE21) is lagging his production and he is still just 27-years old. He is a sneaky off-season acquisition target, as shown by real-world trades pulled by the Dynasty Trade Finder.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
