Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Round Three
February has arrived! That means groundhogs, candy hearts, and of course the Super Bowl! In a normal year, it would also mean the NFL Combine. However, we can add that to the list of things that COVID has altered in the past year and a few months. Never fear though, because all of us here at DLF are devoted to helping you fill that football void!
I was joined by 11 of DLF’s finest to put this mock draft together for you. The rules of the mock draft were simple: no trades, take the best fantasy player available, and assume it is a one-quarterback league. Now, before some of you go storming down to the comments section to ask about superflex, hear me out. The superflex modification is pretty simple. You’re going to see four quarterbacks off the board in the top half of the first round. The reason I actually prefer single-quarterback mock drafts is that it lets you see how large the gap is between the various quarterbacks. Yes, the top three picks in a superflex are going to be quarterbacks, but how big is the gap between 1.01 and 1.02? A single-quarterback mock draft will help you see that.
If you missed the first round or the second round, you can go back and read them here! Let’s move on to the third and final round.
3.01 – Michael Carter, RB North Carolina
Addison’s thoughts: There are some people who believe Carter is the better running back at UNC. He’s a short dude but has the weight to make up for it like a bowling ball. He meets my third round flyer criteria, and even offers totaled 82 receptions in college.
My thoughts: I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Once you get past the first 16-20 picks in most rookie drafts, your chances of finding a starter are pretty slim. That means it is time to either go for maximum upside or pivot away from the running backs and wide receivers. I think Carter fits the upside piece of things. While he is undersized, he was highly effective in college and has a very nice mix of agility, speed, explosiveness, and vision. His lack of size is the main source of two of his weaknesses – blocking in the passing game and yards after contact. Nonetheless, he’s a very good pick at this point the draft.
3.02 – Dyami Brown, WR North Carolina
Frank’s thoughts: He is a value pick here at 3.02 as much as anything. He’s gaining steam after a good Senior Bowl week.
My thoughts: Brown is a talented receiver with a lot of good but not great qualities. This includes his size, speed, and explosiveness. His best qualities might be his hands and his competitiveness at the point of the catch. My biggest concerns about him are that he is going to need some time to develop at the next level, and his lack of anything truly exceptional might limit his overall ceiling.
3.03 – Zach Wilson, QB BYU
My thoughts: I’m a little biased as this was my pick in the draft, but once you get to the third round of mocks I’m a huge proponent in drafting quarterbacks and tight ends. At the very least, the value of those two positions, especially quarterbacks, tends to grow from year one to year two. If you aren’t in love with their progress, you can flip them for a second-round pick or better a year later.
As for Wilson, getting him so much later than Justin Fields, who some have Wilson ranked ahead of, is quite the value! He is slightly undersized at 6’3” and 210 pounds, but it is still well within the norm for NFL quarterbacks. His passing game took a huge leap forward in his final year, which has made a few people pause on him. However, he brings dual-threat ability with the arm talent to make the NFL throws. Like a lot of dual-threat quarterbacks, he tends to scramble or roll-out a bit prematurely, but he can make a lot of plays outside of the pocket as well. He has a chance to be an every-week fantasy starter at the NFL level. Not bad for a third round pick!
3.04 – Tamorrion Terry, WR Florida State
Joseph’s thoughts: Terry is the definition of a boom-bust receiver prospect. He’s had a tumultuous year, but at 6’4″ and 210 pounds, he’s a size-speed freak who was highly thought of in devy circles less than a year ago. There are a couple of players I have ranked above Terry who have not been drafted yet, but I tend to shoot for upside in my third-round rookie draft selections. Poor draft capital and shaky hands are my primary concerns with him.
My thoughts: I agree with Joseph that this pick was all about upside. When a player has two things that you can’t teach, size and speed, there is always a chance you’ll be able to coach up the rest of his game! Terry was primarily a vertical threat in college who used his size, speed, and body to physically dominate in college. He is going to need some time to develop a full route tree, and he also needs to work on his hands, which is a big concern for someone who makes a living catching footballs.
3.05 – Sage Surratt, WR Wake Forest
Adam’s thoughts: Surratt comes in as one of the “big” receivers in this class. He excels at the catch point and can be a large slot target for NFL teams. His overall lack of athleticism will be a knock in today’s NFL that is built on speed, but he can be a reliable X receiver if he can stay healthy.
My thoughts: Checking in at 6’2” or 6’3”, depending on where you look, Surratt is a master at winning at the point of the catch. Between his ball skills, hands, and ability to position his body he rarely missed an opportunity to come down with a catch that is thrown near him. The one major concern that I have is that he’s so good at this because he lacks the athletic ability to separate from defenders. In other words, he’s had a lot of practice making contested catches. I worry that the lack of athleticism might limit his ceiling.
3.06 – Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State
Tan’s thoughts: One of the surest bets you can make in terms of gaining value over acquisition cost is getting a first-round draft capital quarterback in the late second/early third round, which definitely helps drive my selection of Lance here. Lance is projected to go in the NFL top ten (tenth overall by PFF big board, 11th by TDN’s), has an elite downfield arm, and is the best rushing threat of the class at the QB position. He should be capable of contributing Konami-code production early as a rookie, and hopefully will grow into a more complete passer with NFL game experience and coaching.
My thoughts: Tan and I think alike when it comes to using your middle and late-round picks to capitalize on value. Lance is a great choice here given that he’s going to be an early first-round pick in NFL drafts and likely a middle first-round pick in superflex leagues. With dual-threat ability and a great arm, Lance definitely has the potential to be a starter for a long-time in the NFL. There are of course concerns about the program/conference he played for during college and the level of competition he faced, but that risk is why he’s still available here. Regardless, his value is going to climb over the next year or two.
3.07 – Jermar Jefferson, RB Oregon State
Drew’s thoughts: Most of the players being selected in the third round are dart throws at their position (QB being the exception in 1QB drafts). With that being the case, I will almost always take a shot on the guy who offers real upside over the player who may have better odds to “breakout” but may never be more than a flex. Jefferson offers that upside because of what he brings to a team as a pass catcher while also being capable of running the ball up the gut.
My thoughts: With good instincts running up the middle and good all-around passing game skills, I agree that Jefferson has a chance to be something at the next level. I don’t know that he will be highly drafted in the NFL draft, but keep an eye on where he lands. He has the skillset to outshine his draft capital if he lands in the right spot.
3.08 – Anthony Schwartz, WR Auburn
Scott’s thoughts: KJ Hamler 2021? Easy comp, but Schwartz produced without a great QB and did so with another elite receiver alongside him. No way his profile should fall this far, and likely won’t, when people realize the NFL can’t ignore the speed he will bring.
My thoughts: Maybe it is just me, but I wasn’t very excited about Hamler last year, so that might explain a little bit about my feelings for Schwartz. He just might be the fastest receiver in this year’s draft class, which means he is a big-play threat on just about every down. However, outside of that quality, I’m just pretty neutral to him. He still has a ways to go to transition from athlete to receiver.
3.09 – Rhamondre Stevenson, RB Oklahoma
My thoughts: Stevenson is an interesting prospect. With only 165 carries over his 19 games at Oklahoma, his profile is far from certain. While he isn’t the most agile, you need to keep in mind that he is 246 pounds. That’s right, that’s bigger than a lot of tight ends. There is a chance he might be limited to a two-down role in the NFL, but he has the potential to be a punishing runner who will make defenders make ‘business decisions’ late in the game.
3.10 – D’Wayne Eskridge, WR Western Michigan
Matt’s thoughts: Eskridge made the most of his Senior Bowl invitation where he was able to demonstrate his abilities against a higher level of competition than he saw in the past. He shows the ability to separate from defenders early in a route and has a vertical game that’s rare for a player of his size. It’s possible his Senior Bowl performance elevated his draft capital into day two.
My thoughts: Eskridge isn’t a finished product by any means thanks to him switching back and forth between offense and defense to help out his college team, but he’s quickly rising up as people can see the potential for him. He has good hands, runs solid routes, and has a competitive drive that is unmatched – those are the main hooks for people. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him as an every-down player in the NFL within a few years. Just be patient with him as he still has a lot to learn.
3.11 – Mac Jones, QB Alabama
Derek’s thoughts: He’s not mobile whatsoever, but has great accuracy and decision-making and could be a Kirk Cousins-esque quarterback at the next level
My thoughts: Our fifth quarterback of this mock draft and the third one in this round, Jones is a ways behind the previous four quarterbacks in my opinion. I think the other four are going to go in the top half of most superflex drafts, but Jones might be more of a second-round pick even in superflex leagues. It will be very interesting to see where he goes in the NFL draft. Derek mentioned Cousins, and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone like the Vikings took Jones as a long-term succession plan, having him sit for a year or two before eventually starting.
3.12 – Nico Collins, WR Michigan
Jeff’s thoughts: I wish he hadn’t opted out as I would have liked to see him build a greater resume at Michigan. He is a big-play receiver, has good hands, and has more NFL talent than he showed at Michigan due to a poor offensive system. Has a bit of Chase Claypool potential with a good 40-yard dash time.
My thoughts: The opt-out added an additional challenge to evaluating this year’s draft class. Collins could have done wonders for his draft stock with a good year in 2020, but instead, we need to use his unfinished resume to judge him. He has great size and good enough speed to be a threat on the outside in the NFL. His routes need to improve to help create a little more separation since his speed doesn’t do that. He’s a bit of a gamble, but you can’t teach size!
That’s it for this mock draft! What surprised you, who did we miss, and what do you think is going to happen as the process continues on through the next few months?
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
