2021 Dynasty Capsule: Baltimore Ravens
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
The 2020 Baltimore Ravens finished an 11-5 season with a Divisional Round loss to the Buffalo Bills. Though run-heavy, their offense is dynamic, entertaining and young. Their top eight dynasty assets are all age 25 or younger. In this piece, we examine this young Ravens roster from a dynasty perspective.
QUARTERBACK
Lamar Jackson (ADP 65, QB 5) (Superflex ADP 6, QB5)
Age: 24
Jackson was fantasy’s QB1 in 2019. He scored an amazing 24% more points than the QB2. One cannot expect a historically outlying performance to repeat itself, but his QB10 year in 2020 was disappointing to some.
For those interested in shopping Jackson, he is fetching two mid-firsts in superflex/2QB leagues per the Dynasty Trade Analyzer. But perennial QB1s in their mid-20s do not grow on trees. Selling for anything short of the equivalent of three firsts seems light.
Robert Griffin III (ADP NA, QB NA)
Age: 31
Griffin appeared in four games. He was sacked on 18% of his dropbacks and his 14 pass attempts resulted in a negative 3.4 adjusted yards per attempt. His QB1 finish in 2012 as a rookie is a distant memory; he can be dropped in all formats.
RUNNING BACK
JK Dobbins (ADP 13, RB 8)
Age: 22
Three Ravens backs split time equally through the first six weeks of the season. But then Mark Ingram hurt his ankle and was phased out. Dobbins took the lead and was the most productive back. Interestingly, Gus Edwards’ snap percentage remained the same before and after Ingram’s injury.
Dobbins’ ADP rose about a round in October to 16th overall, and Ingram started his decline.
DLF’s Dynasty ADP Comparison Tool.
As we start the off-season, Dobbins is a borderline first-round startup pick.
He has an elite profile going back to his days as a top-50 national recruit before rushing for nearly 4,500 yards and 38 touchdowns in three years at Ohio State.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Gus Edwards (ADP 134, RB 44)
Age: 25
The sneaky value in this backfield might be Edwards. After Baltimore’s week seven bye, Dobbins was fantasy’s RB19 with 95 total points. Edwards was right with him as RB20 with 92 points.
His ADP is on the rise but he is still just dynasty’s RB44. His upside is limited absent an injury to Dobbins, but his real-world value seems lower than his ADP.
DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder App.
Bonus points if you knew he is only 25 years old.
He is a restricted free agent but the team is expected to bring him back. The Ravens seem unlikely to use an early draft pick or big free-agent dollars on a running back with Dobbins in house and Edwards a reliable number two option.
Mark Ingram (ADP 226, RB 70)
Age: 32
Ingram is among the oldest and most expensive free agent running backs this off-season. He may find the market tough.
Data courtesy of Spotrac.
At this point, he is a throw-in piece for dynasty trades. Contending teams may be better off holding him this off-season – as dynasty managers value youth – and hoping for a favorable landing spot. The cash-out option will likely yield a fourth-round rookie pick, per our Trade Analyzer.
Justice Hill (ADP 232, RB 75)
Age: 23
Hill has produced 375 scrimmage yards in two NFL seasons. This off-season should determine his fate. Baltimore could let Edwards walk and give Hill the RB2 role. They could cut him and incur a $600k cap hit, or they could keep him in RB3 purgatory. Dynasty managers should look elsewhere for a high-upside stash.
WIDE RECEIVER
Marquise Brown (ADP 73, WR 39)
Age: 24
Brown improved in his second season, but what is his upside at 170 pounds in a run-heavy offense featuring a top-five tight end?
His 6.3 targets per game ranked 49th among NFL wide receivers while his average depth of target (aDOT) was ninth (min 6.0 targets per game). He relies on the big play. And though he led the Ravens with 100 targets, his team target share was 54th in the league. The Ravens spread their targets around. Unless the team decides to feed him as a true WR1, he will rely on big plays.
The former 2.02 dynasty rookie pick (per DLF Rookie ADP) is retaining value despite WR45 and WR32 fantasy finishes.
Perhaps we should be trading Brown for higher upside alternatives. Brown can fetch the rookie 1.12 per the Dynasty Trade Analyzer, and players in this range include Denzel Mims, Noah Fant, and Jalen Reagor.
Miles Boykin (ADP 179, WR 81)
Age: 25
Boykin is already 25 years old entering his third season. He saw a slight uptick in targets (33) and receptions (19) in 2020 but still totaled just 69 fantasy points. At 6’4” and 220 pounds, he has red-zone potential but that is not enough to retain a spot on dynasty rosters.
Devin Duvernay (ADP 196, WR 87)
Age: 23
Duvernay may already be the team’s WR2, and his third-round draft capital suggests more playing time is incoming.
While Brown gets deep, Duvernay is deployed near the line of scrimmage. His aDOT of 6.2 was 149th among NFL wide receivers but his 5.9 yards after catch per reception was best among Ravens WRs. His 4.39-second speed is shown here.
Devin Duvernay turns on the JETS for six 🚀🚀🚀pic.twitter.com/gdhEq0pfVg
— PFF (@PFF) September 29, 2020
His ADP is on an uptrend and is just inside the top 200. He was the rookie 3.10 per DLF Rookie ADP and now has a trade value equal to the rookie 3.11. He is worth a flier this off-season.
DLF’s Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
TIGHT END
Mark Andrews (ADP 54, TE 4)
Age: 24
The most valuable Ravens pass-catcher is Andrews, both in terms of fantasy production and ADP. His TE4 season was not a fluke as he ranked among the top four tight ends in terms of air yards and target share. His 10.6-yard aDOT was a full 24% greater than second-place Travis Kelce’s 8.4 (minimum six targets per game). Just 24 years old, Andrews has twice finished as a top-five tight end. This, despite being on a team that ranked dead last in pass yards in 2020 and 27th in 2019. He is signed through 2021.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
