2020 IDP Rookie Review: Safeties
After 17 weeks of watching and writing up this year’s crop of rookie defensive players, I can tell you that I’m ready to pop open NFL Game Pass and find some savvy veterans to watch! It has been fun to get a great handle on what these rookies do well and what they need to work on, but I’m also sick of watching them.
All joking aside, I hope you’ve enjoyed the weekly recaps as well as this year-end series. Part one examined edge rushers. In part two I broke down the interior defensive linemen, and part three hit on the off-ball linebackers.
As far as the safeties go, I felt it turned out to be a pretty good class even though we didn’t see much of Xavier McKinney and totally missed Grant Delpit. And one of the better deep safeties, Julian Blackmon, doesn’t have much fantasy value on his own, but he did help secure a more productive role for teammate Khari Willis.
Here are my usual disclaimers on these rookies: You’ve probably heard about their poor play, and it’s understandable as the vast majority of them struggle with the transition from college to the pros in normal years. It helps to keep in mind that for the 2020 rookie class, there were no rookie minicamps and no organized team activities (OTAs). Working with COVID-19 restrictions, training camps had a different look and feel.
Credit goes to Pro Football Reference for missed tackle and passing completion data, and pressures (defined as a combination of hurries, quarterback knockdowns, and sacks).
Tier One: Elite Assets
1. Jeremy Chinn, CAR
- Drafted: Second round, No. 64 overall pick (Southern Illinois)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 23
Stats to Know:
- 967 of 1,059 defensive snaps (91.3 percent)
- 68 solo tackles, 49 assists; two tackles for loss; 15 missed tackles (11.4 percent missed tackle rate)
- 47 completions on 64 targets (73.4 percent completion percentage); five passes defensed; one interception
- 65 blitzes; seven pressures; one sack; five quarterback hits
- two forced fumbles; two fumble recoveries
As spectacular as Chinn was as a rookie, we may have seen his best statistical season. Tall, fast, long-armed, athletic and strong, Chinn looked capable of playing in the box, over the slot or as a deep safety. And that’s just what he did, providing a versatile defensive playmaker for Carolina. His snaps playing as a second or third linebacker helped him pile up tackle numbers, and he was a playmaker on top of it. (His 13-tackle, two-touchdown effort on Thanksgiving weekend was the stuff of fantasy legend.)
Panthers defensive coordinator Phil Snow has said, however, that they may not utilize Chinn in the same role going forward. Nothing seems set in stone, and we’ll have to see how the draft and free agency shake out, but they’ve hinted at playing him more in the deep safety role. Speaking of Chinn’s work as a linebacker after the season, Snow said, “we started him in the front seven, and then we have packages where he plays in the back row, in the secondary. Well, with his body structure and his longevity and things like that, is that the best thing for him? … Should he be a secondary guy that we use down in the box when we need to?”
I’m not saying go out and sell Chinn, but at this time next year there’s a decent shot we’re no longer considering him an “elite asset.” He’s a good “sell high” candidate, in my opinion. Just don’t take 75 cents on the dollar.
Tier Two: Low-End and Matchup-Based Starts
2. Antoine Winfield Jr, TB
- Drafted: Second round, No. 45 overall pick (Minnesota)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 23
Stats to Know:
- 1,034 of 1,063 defensive snaps (97.3 percent)
- 64 solo tackles, 30 assists; one tackle for loss; seven missed tackles (6.9 percent missed tackle rate)
- 30 completions on 39 targets (76.9 percent completion percentage); six passes defensed; one interception
- 45 blitzes; six pressures; three sacks; four quarterback hits
- two forced fumbles; one fumble recovery
There’s no shortage of all-rookie teams floating around the Web, and if you see a heated argument in the reader comments section, it’s probably over the top rookie safety. No one played a higher number of percentage of defensive snaps than Winfield, who provided a playmaking presence on the last line of Tampa Bay’s stellar defense.
He put up a handful of fantasy duds, no doubt, but no one’s going to argue he’s an elite fantasy asset given he’s playing as the single high safety on the majority of his snaps. What he is though is an elite playmaker, and he’s quick to read and react to the ball. He was also great in run support and didn’t miss a lot of tackles. And let’s hope the Buccaneers continue to send him after the quarterback rather than put him on a deep island, like Pittsburgh does to Minkah Fitzpatrick. Winfield had some monster weeks when rushing the passer.
3. Kamren Curl, WAS
- Drafted: Seventh round, No. 216 overall pick (Arkansas)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 22
Stats to Know:
- 764 of 1,045 defensive snaps (73.1 percent)
- 63 solo tackles, 25 assists; four tackles for loss; 16 missed tackles (15.4 percent missed tackle rate)
- 39 completions on 53 targets (73.6 percent completion percentage); four passes defensed; three interceptions
- 40 blitzes; six pressures; two sacks; five quarterback hits
- zero forced fumbles; zero fumble recoveries
Arguably this year’s biggest IDP surprise, Curl is just as much of an unknown headed into 2021. He was a smash hit as the replacement at strong safety for Landon Collins, who tore an Achilles in week seven, and showed a nice ability to diagnose and quickly work downhill. It sounds simple and dummied down, but Curl just has a nose for the ball. He’s constantly near it, and that equals great fantasy production.
Now, if you have shares of Curl, you’re wondering where this goes from here: Will he keep the strong safety job once Collins returns? Or will he move to deep safety – where Washington needs a playmaker – or play a lot of big nickel, a role he filled earlier in the season? My best guess is that Collins isn’t ready to start the season or eases his way back – remember the Achilles injury is a hard one to return from, and it occurred in week seven. That keeps Curl in the strong safety spot to start the year. After that, I think it depends on how quickly Collins can regain his pre-injury form, because I don’t think he’s moving positions, getting cut or backing up Curl once healthy. We could see Curl in a vastly diminished role as the big nickel at that point. This is all just an early guess, of course, and how this plays out is a major IDP storyline headed into the 2021 season.
4. Xavier McKinney, NYG
- Drafted: Second round, No. 36 overall pick (Alabama)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 22
Stats to Know:
- 209 of 1,088 defensive snaps (19.2 percent)
- 14 solo tackles, 11 assists; one tackle for loss; one missed tackle (3.8 percent missed tackle rate)
- 12 completions on 13 targets (92.3 percent completion percentage); one pass defensed; one interception
- seven blitzes; zero pressures; zero sacks; zero quarterback hits
- zero forced fumbles; zero fumble recoveries
McKinney broke a bone in his foot before the season started and we didn’t see him until week 12. He picked up 68 percent of the defensive snaps over the final four weeks of the season though, so we got a decent look at him. He looked to be at his best playing deep safety, and looked capable of quickly diagnosing plays to put himself in position to work downhill in run support or make a play on the ball. He also played a lot of slot corner, where I thought he struggled in pass coverage. The pass completion numbers bear that out.
McKinney’s versatility at Alabama obviously appealed to Big Blue, which under Joe Judge implemented a Patriots-like keep-’em-guessing scheme. With both Jabrill Peppers and Logan Ryan apparently not going anywhere, you are sure to see the Giants playing a lot of big nickel and big dime with all three safeties on the field. McKinney isn’t likely to have the consistent fantasy production that a traditional box safety would have, but he’s going to be a very good NFL player and a good S2 for your fantasy team for many years.
5. Kyle Dugger, NE
- Drafted: Second round, No. 37 overall pick (Lenoir-Rhyne)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 25
Stats to Know:
- 520 of 1,018 defensive snaps (51.1 percent)
- 43 solo tackles, 21 assists; one tackle for loss; seven missed tackles (9.9 percent missed tackle rate)
- 24 completions on 33 targets (72.7 percent completion percentage); zero passes defensed; zero interceptions
- ten blitzes; one pressure; zero sacks; zero quarterback hits
- zero forced fumbles; zero fumble recoveries
Like McKinney, Dugger is a perfect fit for the Patriots’ defensive scheme as a smooth athlete capable of lining up in the box, in two-deep safety looks, or in the slot. Versatile safeties are probably my favorite players to watch on the field, and it’s a blast to find No 35 on the all-22. He moves downhill fast and simply tries to plow through his target as a tackler.
I thought he improved by leaps and bounds in coverage over the course of the season, so that’s a positive. I also think there’s some more big play upside to be had: He was only sent on a blitz ten times despite mostly playing in the box. From a long-term dynasty perspective, keep in mind Dugger’s age – he’ll be 25 in late March, so you’re not likely to get as many years out of this asset.
6. Grant Delpit, CLE
We’re not totally sure what we’re going to get out of the former LSU star in the immediate future following an Achilles injury in training camp. If he’s able to quickly regain his lateral explosiveness and stay on the field, he should be productive. Even if he needs time to work his way back from the injury, you have to like him for 2022 and beyond given his explosiveness, youth (22) and second round draft capital. And hopefully he cleans up his tackling technique, which was the big knock against him as a prospect.
Tier Three: Worthy of a Roster Spot
7. Ashtyn Davis, NYJ
- Drafted: Third round, No. 68 overall pick (California)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 24
Stats to Know:
- 402 of 1,139 defensive snaps (35.3 percent)
- 25 solo tackles, 11 assists; one tackle for loss; two missed tackles (5.3 percent missed tackle rate)
- 19 completions on 26 targets (73.1 percent completion percentage); one pass defensed; zero interceptions
- 45 blitzes; two pressures; zero sacks; zero quarterback hits
- zero forced fumbles; one fumble recovery
Davis has the athleticism to get you excited about his potential, but he struggled in coverage in year one, and proved ineffective when sent after the quarterback. Ultimately, there are more questions about Davis than answers. Is he a box safety, or best deployed deep? Will the Jets bring back free agent Marcus Maye, or will Robert Saleh and new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich want to bring in a strong safety they are already familiar with, such as Keanu Neal or Jaquiski Tartt?
Davis has the high upside you like as a bench option, so hang on even if Gang Green opts to add a safety of Neal’s caliber. He could easily be worth consideration for your IDP lineup. One thing to be aware of: His shelf life is a bit shorter than most on this list, as he turns 25 in mid-October.
8. Jordan Fuller, LAR
- Drafted: Sixth round, No. 199 overall pick (Ohio State)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 23
Stats to Know:
- 707 of 1,024 defensive snaps (69 percent)
- 42 solo tackles, 18 assists; zero tackles for loss; eight missed tackles (11.8 percent missed tackle rate)
- 32 completions on 40 targets (80 percent completion percentage); five passes defensed; three interception
- zero blitzes; zero pressures; zero sacks; zero quarterback hits
- zero forced fumbles; zero fumble recoveries
Fuller surprised the fantasy community by beating out Taylor Rapp for a starting safety job out of camp. The Rams seem to love him for his character and makeup, and I’m sure he’s going to be a solid pro, but he didn’t show a ton of playmaking ability as a rookie. He had three picks, but two were gift-wrapped by an off-target Tom Brady in week 11, and the other one was off a pass tipped at the line by Aaron Donald. And here’s a surprising stat: In 707 snaps, he wasn’t once sent after the quarterback on a blitz.
9. Daniel Thomas, JAC
- Drafted: Fifth round, No. 157 overall pick (Auburn)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 23
Stats to Know:
- 161 of 1,121 defensive snaps (14.4 percent)
- 16 solo tackles, two assists; zero tackles for loss; two missed tackles (10 percent missed tackle rate)
- four completions on eight targets (50 percent completion percentage); two passes defensed; one interception
- seven blitzes; zero pressures; zero sacks; zero quarterback hits
- zero forced fumbles; zero fumble recoveries
Who knows if Urban Meyer or defensive coordinator Joe Cullen want anything to do with Thomas, but he’s this high due to sheer upside. Josh Jones is a free agent, and I’m going to assume if Jacksonville brings in a free agent safety, it’s going to be a clear upgrade over Thomas.
In the three games he saw significant action, Thomas was productive, with seven solos in week five and eight total tackles in week ten. He was showing off his playmaking ability in week 11, disrupting a couple of passes and intercepting Ben Roethlisberger at the end of the half, but hurt his arm and ended up on injured reserve for the remainder of the season.
10. Brandon Jones, MIA
- Drafted: Third round, No. 70 overall pick (Texas)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 23
Stats to Know:
- 430 of 1,033 defensive snaps (41.6 percent)
- 41 solo tackles, 21 assists; three tackles for loss; seven missed tackles (10.1 percent missed tackle rate)
- 20 completions on 25 targets (80 percent completion percentage); one pass defensed; zero interceptions
- 40 blitzes; four pressures; one sack; one quarterback hit
- one forced fumble; zero fumble recoveries
Jones is a heavy hitter who works well downhill. Miami used him as both a box safety as well as a deep safety in split looks, and he had a nice rookie campaign. Jones is intriguing – but can he be more than a big nickel or dime safety?
Eric Rowe and Bobby McCain are both under contract for two more seasons. While cutting either would provide cap savings ($4 million for Rowe, and a little more than $5.6 million for McCain) with not a lot of dead money, Miami is in good cap shape at the moment, and both Rowe and McCain are solid to good defensive backs. I would expect both to be back with the Dolphins.
Keep in mind Coach Brian Flores comes from the Bill Belichick tree, and like New England, Miami likes to put five or six defensive backs on the field quite a bit. Jones projects to have a nice role in 2021, but I question how fantasy-relevant he’ll be in the near-term.
11. Julian Blackmon, IND
- Drafted: Third round, No. 85 overall pick (Utah)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 23
Stats to Know:
- 916 of 1,032 defensive snaps (88.8 percent)
- 35 solo tackles, seven assists; three tackles for loss; seven missed tackles (14.3 percent missed tackle rate)
- 19 completions on 27 targets (70.4 percent completion percentage); six passes defensed; two interceptions
- three blitzes; zero pressures; zero sacks; zero quarterback hits
- one forced fumble; zero fumble recoveries
Blackmon took over as the Colts’ free safety after Malik Hooker (a free agent) suffered a torn Achilles in week two, and he never looked back. He’s by no means an All Pro, but he had a nice rookie season by NFL terms, and has cemented himself as a full-time safety opposite Khari Willis in Indianapolis’ defensive backfield. So why isn’t he higher on this list? Simple: he’s rarely near the action with the Colts showing a ton of single high safety looks. Unless he has a random multiple interception game, you’re never going to like having him in your lineup. Look to sell for anything decent if one of your league mates shows interest.
12. Jaylinn Hawkins, ATL
- Drafted: Fourth round, No. 134 overall pick (California)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 24
Stats to Know:
- 74 of 1,081 defensive snaps (6.8 percent)
- eight solo tackles, five assists; zero tackles for loss; two missed tackles (13.3 percent missed tackle rate)
- five completions on seven targets (71.4 percent completion percentage); zero passes defensed; zero interceptions
- five blitzes; one pressure; half a sack; one quarterback hit
I was impressed with Hawkins’ physical style of play early in the season, but a concussion limited him after week four and he never seemed to get back on track. He has a chance to surprise if Keanu Neal departs in free agency, but like the Jets’ Davis and the Jaguars’ Thomas, Hawkins is now going to be playing for a coaching staff that didn’t draft him. He’s worth holding for now, but if Atlanta re-signs Neal, brings in another safety via free agency, or spends a day one or two draft pick on the position, you might as well cut bait.
Tier Four: Watch List
13. K’Von Wallace, PHI
- Drafted: Fourth round, No. 127 overall pick (Clemson)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 24
Stats to Know:
- 202 of 1,101 defensive snaps (18.3 percent)
- 15 solo tackles, six assists; zero tackles for loss; two missed tackles (8.7 percent missed tackle rate)
- six completions on nine targets (66.7 percent completion percentage); zero passes defensed; zero interceptions
- six blitzes; zero pressures; zero sacks; zero quarterback hits
- zero forced fumbles; one fumble recovery
Wallace saw the bulk of his snaps over the final five weeks of the season, and he didn’t make much of an impact. He played a full complement of snaps in week 17 with both Rodney McLeod and Jalen Mills out. What stood out to me in that game was his footwork — he seemed to be very unsure of his play reads and kind of danced in place a bit before reacting. If he gets another chance, he’ll need to read and react more quickly and cleanly.
14. Vernon Scott, GB
- Drafted: Seventh round, No. 236 overall pick (TCU)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 24
Stats to Know:
- 90 of 1,029 defensive snaps (8.7 percent)
- 11 solo tackles, two assists; two tackles for loss; one missed tackles (7.1 percent missed tackle rate)
- four completions on six targets (66.7 percent completion percentage); zero passes defensed; zero interceptions
- three blitzes; one pressure; one sack; one quarterback hit
The Packers played a lot of big dime with three safeties on the field. With Will Redmond entering unrestricted free agency and Raven Greene entering restricted free agency, Green Bay likely drafted Scott with the idea that he would assume a third or fourth safety role in 2021. From what I saw of him in limited snaps, I thought he looked capable. He’s just worth watching though, as Redmond and/or Greene could still be blocking his path to snaps, and we don’t know if Green Bay will continue playing heavy dime groupings with Mike Pettine out as defensive coordinator. (His replacement had not been named at the time I submitted this article.)
15. Terrell Burgess, LAR
- Drafted: Third round, No. 104 overall pick (Utah)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 22
Stats to Know:
- 49 of 1,024 defensive snaps (4.8 percent)
- seven solo tackles, one assist; zero tackles for loss; zero missed tackles
- four completions on seven targets (57.1 percent completion percentage); one pass defensed; zero interceptions
Burgess’ rookie season ended prior to week eight with an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve. The Rams drafted Burgess to play a big nickel/dime role, and that should be his floor in 2021. With the Rams taking on $22.2 million in dead money for trading Jared Goff, it seems unlikely they’ll be able to bring back John Johnson III, making Burgess the de facto third safety. That upside, along with his day two draft capital, places him squarely on the watch list.
16. Antoine Brooks Jr., PIT
- Drafted: Sixth round, No. 198 overall pick (Maryland)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 22
Stats to Know:
- 29 of 1,030 defensive snaps (2.8 percent)
- one solo tackle, one assist; zero tackles for loss; one missed tackle (33.3 percent missed tackle rate)
- zero completions on one target; zero passes defensed; zero interceptions
- one blitz; zero pressures; zero sacks; zero quarterback hits
Brooks didn’t get much of a look this year, but I’m keeping an eye on him in case Pittsburgh doesn’t pick up the fifth-year option on 2018 first-rounder Terrell Edmunds. That would put Edmunds on track to enter free agency after 2021 and open a door to the strong safety job. The Steelers could also look to move the physical Brooks to linebacker, as they did with Marcus Allen this season.
Tier Five: Let It Go
17. Sam Franklin, CAR
- Undrafted (Temple)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 25
Stats to Know:
- 248 of 1,059 defensive snaps (23.4 percent)
- 15 solo tackles, eight assists; one tackle for loss; three missed tackles (11.5 percent missed tackle rate)
- five completions on 11 targets (45.5 percent completion percentage); one pass defensed; zero interceptions
- three blitzes; one pressure; one sack; one quarterback hit
Franklin was productive for a few weeks mid-season while subbing for the injured Juston Burris, but otherwise stuck to special teams work when healthy. His best game came in week nine with both Burris and Chinn out with injuries. Franklin is a physical player, but by no means NFL starter material.
18. Alohi Gilman, LAC
- Drafted: Sixth round, No. 186 overall pick (Notre Dame)
- Age prior to kickoff of 2021 season: 23
Stats to Know:
- 71 of 1,036 defensive snaps (6.9 percent)
- five solo tackles, two assists; zero tackles for loss; one missed tackle (12.5 percent missed tackle rate)
- three completions on four targets (75 percent completion percentage); zero passes defensed; zero interceptions
- three blitzes; one pressure; zero sacks; one quarterback hit
Gilman didn’t do much in his first season. He didn’t see his first snap until week 13, and didn’t play meaningful snaps until week 16, when Rayshawn Jenkins suffered an ankle injury. He suffered a concussion in week 17 after putting up meager production on 46 snaps.
Jenkins is entering unrestricted free agency. Even if he doesn’t return, Gilman’s biggest problem is still a path to playing time: Derwin James, bad injury luck and all, is on the depth chart in front of him. Known as a tough player at Notre Dame, Gilman is unfortunately limited in length and likely nothing more than a subpackage safety and core special teamer.
Others: I was a fan of (19) Geno Stone (seventh-round pick out of Iowa) pre-draft due to his controlled aggression and ability to read the quarterback, but he spent most of the season on Baltimore’s practice squad and only saw two defensive snaps. Late in the season he spent time on the reserve/COVID-19 list, then was waived and claimed by the Texans before week 17. We’ll see if he gets a shot in Houston, but he’s limited in size and athleticism (see his pitiful spider graph) so if he sticks it’s likely as a special teamer.
- 2023 IDP Rookie Review: Safeties - March 13, 2024
- 2023 IDP Rookie Review: Linebackers - March 2, 2024
- 2023 IDP Rookie Review: Edge Rushers, Part Two - February 21, 2024
