2021 Dynasty Capsule: Kansas City Chiefs

Stephen Gill Posted On February 4, 2021

Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

The team’s franchise quarterback is wrapping up just his third season of play, but already, weekly Sunday scoring explosions are starting to feel like business as usual for the Kansas City Chiefs. In each of those three seasons, all-world quarterback Patrick Mahomes has taken the Chiefs at least as far as the AFC Championship; the hopes on Sunday are for the Chiefs to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Win or lose, offensive success has been the defining theme for the last few years of Chiefs football. It has been thoroughly enjoyable for fans, spectators, and fantasy owners alike for several seasons, and that trend shouldn’t change heading into next year.

Let’s look into the major fantasy pieces who make it so.

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes (ADP: 29.17, QB1)

In prior years, I’ve gone into extensive detail on just how incredible his first season was, as well as reasons for 2019’s on-paper regression (before a Super Bowl victory). Statistically, Mahomes’s 2020 regular season fits in closer to the 2018 breakout; a week 17 absence pushed his volume numbers a bit below 2018’s, but without him or Tyreek Hill being sidelined to injury, he easily surpassed 2019’s.

While the offense’s star headliners — Mahomes, Hill, and Travis Kelce — were available for virtually the entire season, Mahomes’s 2020 production was impressive due to how it withstood the losses of key contributors. Mitchell Schwartz, the best right tackle in the NFL in 2019, played in just a third of the team’s regular season snaps. Sammy Watkins missed six games in the middle of the season. Damien Williams opted out of the season entirely. We’ll also see how he navigates the loss of franchise staple Eric Fisher at left tackle.

But back on track, Mahomes owners will not have to worry about his production until some aspect of the Mahomes-Hill-Kelce triumvirate changes, or perhaps, until Andy Reid’s retirement. Even then, the floor can only be so low for a player with such an incredibly established track record of production.

RUNNING BACK

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP: 19.50, RB11)

Edwards-Helaire rookie hype shot through the roof after the 2020 NFL Draft, and he entered the season edging out Jonathan Taylor for 1.01 status in 1QB format rookie drafts across the dynasty community. After a 138-yard debut performance against Houston, it seemed like full steam ahead.

Well, in his final 12 games of the regular season (he missed single games in a few regular-season stretches), he managed a pedestrian 665 rushing yards, 297 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. It was not a failure by any measure, but compared to Taylor’s 1,169-yard season or Justin Jefferson’s historic campaign, it could be seen as a disappointment. Dynasty owners deserve credit for their patience: Edwards-Helaire still slots in 19th in DLF’s January ADP, showing their opinions of the rookie haven’t soured much.

Personally, CEH’s current mid-second round startup status is a little rich for my taste. At no point this season did he seem to be utilized as a special weapon like Hill, Kelce, and even Mecole Hardman have been in different spots. His 2020 role was clearly defined, as Darrel Williams profiled as a much, much different running back to utilize in different situations. But there is a high supply of small, quick backs to use in zone running and the passing game; most notably, Damien Williams is one such back. Whether it be that Williams, Darwin Thompson, a late-round rookie, or a free agent veteran, there are many ways for Edwards-Helaire’s role to get eaten into. He’ll have to differentiate himself in order to do so, which he hasn’t yet accomplished

Le’Veon Bell (ADP: 161.17, RB55)

Bell’s stint with the Chiefs has been similarly disappointing. Without much standing in his way, Bell earned just 63 carries in nine games. He’ll be an old (by running back standards) free agent this summer, meaning his fantasy value depends entirely on how well he spins the free agency wheel.

WIDE RECEIVER

Tyreek Hill (ADP: 11.67, WR5)

On the field, Hill has proven himself to be one of the league’s most, if not the most, valuable receivers. In as great of a passing setting as Kansas City’s, that has translated to the NFL’s second most fantasy points recorded by any receiver this season, by my estimates. Hill’s blazing speed plays an invaluable part in Kansas City’s offensive success, stretching the field better than any other receiver in the league and perfectly meshing with Mahomes’s arm strength. For the Chiefs, that speed is reasonably replaceable in the form of Hardman, but hey, why not just play them both at the same time?

Hill’s role is safe as long as he’s on the roster and on the field. If he manages to stay out of trouble until then, his contract won’t be up until the off-season of 2023, in which he’ll be turning 29 and will be a priority for Kansas City to retain. I would expect at least three more years of elite production from him, and plenty more serviceability thereafter. A quiet 2020 off-season is promising, on the staying-out-of-trouble front, too.

Mecole Hardman (ADP: 111.5, WR54)

At one point, Hardman looked like the heir apparent to Hill’s tasty receiving role, but that fantasy dissipated as the Hill situation stabilized. Currently, I’m a bigger fan of Hardman’s talent than his production. Two 500-yard seasons is nothing to write home about, but he very clearly fundamentally changes how defenses play the Chiefs when he’s on the field.

Because of some mix of Reid’s offensive genius, Kelce’s presence, and Mahomes’s unique abilities, Hardman can fit in just fine playing alongside Hill — he just has to get enough snaps to produce consistently. For that reason, the hope for Hardman owners has to be Watkins and/or Demarcus Robinson — two other over-qualified third or fourth receiving options — departing in free agency this off-season. On paper, that’s a realistic goal due to the Chiefs cap situation. However, Watkins took a paycut last off-season to remain a member of the Chiefs, and nothing about Robinson’s 2020 free agency suggests he’ll be hard to retain.

With that said, Hardman is currently priced as if Watkins and Robinson are certain to return, providing a low-risk buying window for prospective Hardman owners.

Sammy Watkins (ADP: 166.67, WR73)

Watkins has been forgotten or laughed aside since failing to rekindle his Buffalo magic for four seasons. I can’t speak to his season with the Rams, but I will say he is a legitimately talented receiver when he’s on the field. Still, in Kansas City, he’s missed 14 games and definitively hasn’t stayed on the field. Further, there are simply a lot of other “legitimately talented receivers” on that roster. Maybe Watkins goes elsewhere this off-season, stays healthy, syncs well with a new offense, and he experiences a mid-career revival? I wouldn’t bet on it though.

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce (ADP: ADP 30.33, TE2)

Sometimes it feels like Kelce’s amazing blend of physical talent, technical skill, immediate success, durability, longevity, and production is taken for granted. In 2020, he put up 1,416 yards and 11 touchdowns as a tight end, as just the co-main option in the receiving game! In 15 games! It’s understandable, but still remarkable, how this new-career-best season passed by as a more minor storyline.

Particularly due to his durability, he’s proven to be the surest thing at tight end in the league’s last 10 years. Now, the only real question for him is how long he can keep it up as a 31-year-old. With that said, he put up 1,400 yards this season — I think he’ll be fine for the foreseeable future.

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Stephen Gill

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

An aspiring sports executive, Steve hails from Kansas City and currently studies in Montreal. In addition to fantasy and the NFL, he enjoys college football and the NBA. Other interests of his range from video games to hip-hop to online argumentation.