2021 Dynasty Capsule: Cleveland Browns
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
A Wild Card playoff win in Pittsburgh and a Divisional Round loss to the defending champions. This would be considered a mildly successful campaign to most NFL teams… yet, it’s the season Cleveland Browns’ fans have been waiting over a quarter-century to experience.
The franchise finds itself in an unfamiliar position this off-season as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. How will these new lofty expectations affect the dynasty values of Cleveland’s skill players?
QUARTERBACKS
Baker Mayfield (ADP: 123.5, QB13)
Age: 25
Coming off a rough 2019 season, Mayfield looked to bounce back in 2020 under his third new coaching staff in as many years. The constant organizational overhaul appeared to take its toll as, apart from a five-touchdown performance in Cincinnati, the first 11 weeks saw pedestrian fantasy production (1,850 yards; 15 TDs, 7 INTs, QB24) from the former Sooner.
The 2017 Heisman Trophy winner found his stride in the last six weeks of the season as his impressive 11-1 touchdown to interception ratio helped propel the Browns into the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. Mayfield was QB7 over this span, outscoring both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady in the process. This strong stretch run helped propel Mayfield’s DLF ADP from a career-low of 160 in November to 124 in January.
Which version of the Browns quarterback should dynasty GMs expect in 2021? Look for the more confident, composed version of Mayfield we saw November through January given he’s not learning a new offense this off-season for the first time in his career.
Yet, this comes with a caveat; the Cleveland offensive identity is built around a strong offensive line and two of the best starting running backs in football. Mayfield will not often be asked to carry the scoring load through the aerial attack as counterparts like Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
The Browns’ signal-caller is a low-end dynasty QB1 at the end of the day. He makes a strong backup in a single quarterback league and a rock-solid QB2 with top 12 upside in superflex formats. Mayfield isn’t the top five dynasty asset many thought after his rookie season. If one of your leaguemates is a Cleveland or Oklahoma partisan and still views the quarterback in this light, sell high immediately.
Case Keenum (ADP: N/A)
Keenum is likely to return as the veteran backup to Mayfield. He only has value in superflex leagues as an insurance policy for those rostering Mayfield.
RUNNING BACKS
Nick Chubb (ADP 14.83, RB9)
Age: 25
Despite missing four games in the middle of the season and sharing a backfield with Kareem Hunt, Chubb still finished the season as an RB1 (RB11) in PPR formats. The Georgia product was able to crack 1,000 yards for the second straight season while finding paydirt a dozen times
Unfortunately, what limited Chubb’s upside this season was his lack of involvement (18 targets, 16 Receptions, 150 yards, zero touchdowns) in the passing game. Yet, it seems as though that tide will be turning in 2021.
When the chips were down in the playoffs, Kevin Stefanski utilized his prized offensive weapon in the aerial attack (nine targets, six receptions, 73 yards, and a touchdown) in two contests. Expect this trend to continue into next season as coach Stefanski wants to keep opposing defenses guessing in spite of the backfield personnel.
Chubb is a dynasty RB1 with top-five upside who may be slightly undervalued given the presence of Hunt. If a leaguemate isn’t aware of what he/she has in the Cleveland back, it’s your duty as an aggressive dynasty manager to take the former Bulldog off their hands at a value.
Kareem Hunt (ADP: 50.67, RB21)
Age: 25
While he would be a high-volume starting running back on the majority of teams in the NFL, Hunt’s versatility allowed him to finish 2020 as an RB1 (RB10) and one spot ahead of teammate Chubb. The former Chief’s 46 red zone touches (39 rushes, seven receptions) helped lead to this top ten fantasy finish.
Hunt is under contract with the Browns for two more seasons meaning he’ll likely never see the workhorse, top-five role he experienced the first two seasons of his career. However, Hunt remains a dependable RB2 and weekly fantasy starter with top 12 upside thanks to his usage inside the 20 and as a receiver.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Jarvis Landry (ADP: 89.67, WR46)
Age: 28
Much like his starting quarterback, Landry disappointed his fantasy managers over the first 11 weeks of the 2020 campaign. Nursing a broken rib, the former Dolphin was held to 471 scoreless yards and was WR59 over the first two-thirds of the season.
It’s no coincidence the Browns offense caught its stride with a healthy Landry over the final six games of the 2020 season. The veteran was PPR WR14 during the playoff push hauling in 34 receptions for 369 yards and three touchdowns pleasing savvy dynasty players who bought low in November (hand raised).
The LSU alum finished the season as the WR36 marking the first time since his rookie season he finished outside of the top 20 at his position. This dip in production and staring down the dreaded age of 30, creates a unique buying opportunity for contenders.
Just like Mayfield, expect the 2021 version of Landry to more closely mirror the one that ended the 2020 season than the one that started it. Acquiring a low-end WR2 at almost WR4 prices in the off-season is a must for anyone hoping to hoist their league’s championship trophy next December.
Odell Beckham (ADP: 71.67, WR37)
Age: 28
Perhaps the biggest dynasty question mark for the Browns heading into the 2021 off-season is Beckham. The former Giant, on the back of a 38-point week four fantasy performance in Dallas, was WR19 heading into a week seven matchup in Cincinnati. Unfortunately, Beckham tore his ACL on the first offensive series in the Queen City trying to make a tackle on an interception.
Baker Mayfield's stats WITH OBJ in the lineup:
22 games
59.7%
4,922 yards (223.7 YPG)
32 TDs
27 INTsMayfield's stats WITHOUT OBJ in the lineup:
15 games
65.6%
4,022 yards (268.1 YPG)
32 TDs
15 INTS— Brent Sobleski (@brentsobleski) October 26, 2020
When Mayfield experienced success after the former Tiger’s injury, some wondered aloud if the Cleveland offense, specifically their signal-caller, were better sans OBJ. While I believe Mayfield may try and force some throws to his superstar receiver, the quarterback’s late-season success had more to do with finally feeling comfortable in the new offense than anyone’s absence.
Both general manager Andrew Berry and coach Kevin Stefanski praised the receiver’s talent and expect him back on the team next season. This is great news for Brown fans as you need great players to win championships, but unwelcome for those with shares of the outspoken wideout.
Beckham’s dynasty value has cratered over the past six months and you’re better off holding onto him as opposed to panic selling. His days as a top ten dynasty asset are clearly in the rearview mirror as he’ll never see his previous volume in Cleveland’s run-heavy attack.
Should he have a strong early-season performance or is traded to a more desirable location (New England perhaps), sell immediately to take advantage of his higher perceived value.
Rashard Higgins (ADP: 140.67, WR63)
Age: 26
One play does not a season make as Higgins filled in admirably (37-599-4) for Odell Beckham Jr. in 2020. Yet, despite undeniable chemistry with Baker Mayfield, Hollywood Higgins doesn’t have much dynasty value on the shores of Lake Erie with a healthy Landry and Beckham.
He’s a free agent this off-season and could see an uptick in value with a desirable landing spot.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (ADP: 171.67, WR79)
Age: 21
Baker Mayfield ➡️ Donovan Peoples-Jones … GAME OVER
The Browns are able to pull off the late victory in Cincinnati. Cleveland really needed that one. #BOOM pic.twitter.com/nQCknstDWe
— FOX Bet Sportsbook (@FOXBet) October 25, 2020
Peoples-Jones made some huge plays in his rookie campaign, establishing himself as the team’s deep threat (14-304-2) in the absence of OBJ. The former Wolverine is a strong roster stash candidate who will see both his perceived and actual value skyrocket when Beckham is no longer on the team.
TIGHT ENDS
Austin Hooper (ADP: 143.83, TE17)
Age: 26
When Hooper was made the highest-paid tight end in the league in March, many in the dynasty community rushed to acquire the former Falcon. Unfortunately, those folks were disappointed come late December as the Browns tight end finished as TE21 on the season.
It was assumed by many (this writer included) Hooper would flourish in new coach Stefanski’s tight end friendly system. Unfortunately, the system, along with Mayfield’s penchant for spreading the ball around, benefitted Hooper’s two backups as much as himself. Hooper is the perfect example of a player who’s much more valuable to his NFL team than your dynasty squad.
Harrison Bryant (ADP: 191, TE23)
Age: 22
Bryant had a strong rookie season which might not show up on the stat sheet (24-238-3), but displayed a young tight end with a promising future. The PFWA rookie first-teamer is a great candidate to hoard on your dynasty bench until David Njoku leaves the team either this or next offseason.
David Njoku (ADP: 220.33, TE29)
Age: 24
Njoku began the 2020 off-season demanding a trade and ended the year making crucial plays for the Browns in the playoffs. The team picked up the tight end’s fifth-year option for 2021, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s moved in the next few months.
Njoku is a player you want to acquire sooner rather than later as he will have a chance this year or next to become a starting option elsewhere entering his prime.
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