Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks: Championship Sunday
With just a few weeks remaining of NFL football, we’re all trying to savor the final three – and most exciting – games of the season. As fantasy players, we’re attempting to squeeze a little more fun out of the hobby we love so much and our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are helping us do it.
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Since I’ve had so much fun playing on Monkey Knife Fight throughout the season, I thought I’d share a few of my favorite props for Sunday’s games. Although I’m usually an under (less) taker, that won’t be the case this week.
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay
The Packers offense has been white-hot recently and Tampa Bay’s defense is susceptible to the pass. Meanwhile, the Green Bay defense gives up chunk plays in the running game and is stronger against the pass. While I expect the game to be competitive, it will be high scoring and the pressure will be on both quarterbacks to make plays throughout the contest.
Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
Prop: More than 280.5 passing yards
Doubters will point to Rodgers’ 160 passing yards and two interceptions against the Bucs in week six as well as the fact that he didn’t reach 281 passing yards in the final three regular-season games as reasons to fade the MVP but I’m not buying it. The Buccaneers have the premiere rush defense in the league, allowing just 80.6 yards per game on the season, so while Green Bay will likely run enough to keep Tampa Bay honest most of the heavy lifting will be done through the air. The Buccaneers also depend a lot on the blitz to generate pressure and Rodgers has feasted on blitzing defenses, throwing 15 touchdowns to just one interception against pressure in the second half of 2020.
Known for playing with a chip on his shoulder, Rodgers wants to avenge his worst performance of the year and get to a second Super Bowl. Leading an offense that has looked unstoppable at times – scoring on each of their first five drives last week – he should cruise past 280.5 passing yards against a Bucs defense that has allowed 365-plus yards through the air in four of their last five games.
Davante Adams, WR GB
Prop: More than 87.5 receiving yards and More than 7.5 receptions
While Tampa Bay held a hobbled Michael Thomas catch-less last week, he’s no Davante Adams – at least in 2020. Averaging 10.6 targets, 8.3 receptions and 96 yards per game, he was the most dominant wide receiver in football this season. Featuring the best release in the game, he made Jalen Ramsey look silly multiple times last week which gives Carlton Davis (13.2 YPC allowed) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (13.1) little change to slow him down.
Everything from the argument supporting Rodgers above applies here as well. Considering Adams led the NFL in target share (29.7%), it’s easy to see the All-Pro receiver going over 87.5 receiving yards. 7.5 receptions and even the 22.5 fantasy points prop if you believe his quarterback reaches his mark.
Chris Godwin, WR TB
Prop: More than 65.5 receiving yards & More than 5.5 receptions
Although he really burned me last week with a couple of balls that slipped through his fingers, I’m going back to the well with Godwin against the Packers. Green Bay forces opposing offenses to run the ball and take underneath passes by playing two deep safeties which plays perfectly into Godwin’s game. If the Packers’ offense remains efficient and continues to score points, Tampa Bay will be forced to keep up. While Tom Brady spreads the ball out, Antonio Brown is out and Godwin has the best matchup as he’s most likely to roam the middle of Green Bay’s zone defense.
Aaron Jones, RB GB
Prop: Less than 16.5 Fantasy Points
Although Jones has been great for most of the season, the worst game of his career was in week six against the Bucs where he ran 10 times for just 15 yards. Tampa Bay allowed the fewest rushing yards (960) and second-fewest rushing touchdowns (eight) to running backs in 2020. Although they gave up more receptions (103) to the position than any other defense, sharing the backfield with Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon makes it unlikely that Jones gets to 16.5 fantasy points.
Buffalo @ Kansas City
In another game that should be high scoring, I expect a lot of passing yards and limited rushing attempts. I’d love to take the LESS on the running backs (particularly if Devin Singletary was in the 42.5-yard range like on other sites) but despite checking regularly I haven’t seen an MKF game offered with any tailbacks. If that changes, I’ll be investing.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
Prop: More than 95.5 receiving yards & More than 7.5 receptions
The Bills have struggled against tight ends throughout 2020, allowing the most receptions (92) and second-most yards (993) to the position in the regular season and even more throughout their postseason run. In the wildcard round against the Colts, they allowed Jack Doyle, Trey Burton and Mo Alie-Cox to combine for 14 catches for 136 yards, a touchdown and a two-point conversion. Although Mark Andrews was held to four catches for 28 yards last week, he was open multiple times (11 targets) but was missed badly by Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley.
Kelce has gone over 95.5 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games and over 7.5 receptions in eight of nine. The most consistent player in the Chiefs’ offense having scored in five straight games, he’s even a good bet to go over the 20.5 fantasy points prop that’s available on MKF.
John Brown, WR BUF
Prop: More than 55.5 receiving yards
Although Brown has had a rocky season, he was productive last week against the Ravens, catching eight of 11 targets for 62 yards. With Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis each banged up, he appears to be in line for an increased role in a high scoring game. Having gone over 55.5 receiving yards in two of his last three games since returning from his own injury, he’s a good bet to hit again on Sunday afternoon with the Chiefs secondary spending most of their resources attempting to stop Stefon Diggs.
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