2021 Dynasty Capsule: Carolina Panthers

Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

The 2020 Carolina Panthers were this close (<holds thumb and pointer finger within an inch of one another>) to fielding a playoff contender. To that point, while they finished well off the playoff pace at 5-11, eight of their losses were within one score, including three within three points. All told new coach Matt Rhule kept his team competitive, and the Panthers weren’t a team to look past on any given week.

A (largely) Christian McCaffrey-less offense that finished the season ranked 21st in terms of total yards and 24th in scoring belied the number of playmakers, both expected and unexpected. However, new offensive coordinator Joe Brady was able to translate many of his collegiate concepts from LSU, ultimately yielding a top-12 running back and three top-25 wide receivers. Let’s dive into the year that was!

Quarterbacks

*53 rushes for 279 yards (5.3 YPC) and five touchdowns

Teddy Bridgewater (ADP = 240.67, QB36)

If the dynasty masses are to be believed, it appears Teddy is decidedly putting the “bridge” in Bridgewater. Though his contract is such that the Panthers wouldn’t feasibly be able to move on until 2022, they possess the eighth pick in a draft that appears to be heavy on quarterback talent. Perhaps sensing an impending changing of the guard, mock drafters for the January, 2021 ADP only selected him in a single draft, as the penultimate player picked.

Looking at his numbers, you might not think this would be the case. While he didn’t have the attempts that many quarterbacks did, he completed almost 70% of his passes at 7.6 YPA. Unfortunately, much of this work was done between the 20s, as Bridgewater could only manage (on average) one passing score per game, helping explain Carolina’s scoring woes. A below-average offensive line (18th best per PFF) didn’t do him many favors, but as always the buck stops with the quarterback. If nothing else, he at least managed to reliably get the ball into the hands of his playmakers (more on that below).

Somewhat surprisingly, Bridgewater managed to add 57.9 points on the ground, setting a career best in rushing yards and more than doubling his prior combined total of four rushing scores. This helped him finish as a mid-range QB2 despite missing one game and parts of others, ultimately building off of the solid backup work he put forth in New Orleans in 2019.

Despite it seeming like Bridgewater has been in the league forever, he just turned 28 in November. He likely won’t ever become an elite fantasy staple, but he’s certainly one of the 32 best signal-callers in the league, and I would anticipate him kicking around several more years if he can maintain his health. At current he’s probably only rosterable in deeper 1QB leagues and superflex leagues, but I’d argue he has enough upside to carve out a modicum of fantasy value moving forward.

PJ Walker (ADP = NR)

As a former XFL season ticket holder (Defend the District!), I have an enormous amount of respect for Walker’s progression from Houston Roughneck stud to NFL backup. Unfortunately, he couldn’t replicate his XFL successes in 2020 spot duty, with a mere one touchdown to five interceptions. In short, Walker is a great story, but not someone worth rostering no matter the league format.

Running Backs

Mike Davis (ADP = 189.17, RB60)

If you were going to take wagers before the season on who would be the most surprising PPR RB1, Davis would undoubtedly have been number one on the list. Not only had he never had a season with more than 750 total yards, but he’s also been the definition of a journeyman, already on his fourth team in just six years. Did I mention the brief bit about being stuck behind the one running back who *literally* never comes off the field, and is viewed by a plurality as the top overall dynasty asset? However, when starter and all-world talent McCaffrey went down (and then down again), Davis was there to pick up the pieces.

Though Davis’s usage and effectiveness waned down the stretch, it’s impossible to view his season as anything other than an unmitigated success. He was able to surpass 1,000 total yards, pairing that with eight scores and robust usage in the passing game. In total, he wound up with 12 games of double-digit touches, and eight games of at least four receptions. And while he never surpassed 100 yards on the ground, his floor was largely safe with at least 10 PPR points in seven games.

A free agent in 2021, Davis has likely played himself into something more than McCaffrey’s backup. While he probably won’t land a starting job, he’s proven enough to show he deserves a slice of a backfield pie, and can handle a starter’s load in a pinch. I’d be happy to buy at the current value.

Christian McCaffrey (ADP = 1.00, RB1)

2020 will go down as the year of Alvin Kamara, who finished as the PPR RB1, a whopping 40 points ahead of RB2 Dalvin Cook. With the massive caveat that he only played in three games, McCaffrey actually averaged 4.9 more PPG than Kamara. Oh, what could have been…

While a departure from McCaffrey’s iron man streak was both unfortunate and unexpected, the three games he played yielded more of what owners were used to – opportunity and scoring chances. For the former, McCaffrey averaged 26 opportunities (rushes plus targets) per game, a pace in line with his 2019 output. To the latter, he managed six scores (five rushing and one receiving). While this pace was likely to slow, McCaffrey was clearly the top option in the red zone.

Dynasty owners were unmistakably undeterred by the injury, selecting him as the number one pick across all six January mock drafts. Only turning 25 in June and recently signed to a monster contract, it’s understandable. McCaffrey is the ultimate PPR cheat code and has the job on lock so long as he remains healthy. Come 2021, owners may view the lessened wear and tear this past season as a blessing in disguise.

Rodney Smith (ADP = 236.50, RB88)

Effectively functioning in the Davis to McCaffrey role (before Davis became McCaffrey), Smith edged in with a weekly seven touches, spelling Davis to the tune of 50 overall rushes and receptions. While he was never truly a threat to Davis’ workload, he undoubtedly worked in more than impatient Davis owners would have liked (and more than Davis did to a healthy McCaffrey). With Davis more than likely moving on, there’s some intrigue here for 2021.

In his (incredibly long) collegiate career, Smith showed an ability to both handle the load and occasionally catch passes. Though he didn’t receive a Combine invite and had no pro day due to COVID-19, Smith was apparently virtually timed in the 4.4-second range for the 40-yard dash. Ostensibly the backup entering 2021 (depending on what happens in the off-season), it’s both understandable and reasonable that Smith is being selected as a late-round dart throw.

Wide Receivers

*41 carries for 200 yards (4.9 YPC) and two touchdowns

Of note, the Panthers made it reallllly easy to chronicle their receivers. Either you had over 1,000 total yards, or you had under 100. So with apologies to Pharoh Cooper, Brandon Zylstra, Seth Roberts and Keith Kirkwood, there’s really nothing to see there.

Robby Anderson (ADP = 95.33, WR49)

Following the first 1,000-yard campaign of his career, and easily his most productive in terms of accruing targets and securing receptions, I have to say I’m surprised that Anderson doesn’t even crack the WR4 tier… before the rookies hit the ADP! While I don’t want to pick and choose individual players to attempt to state my case, the Texans’ Will Fuller is being selected three rounds earlier despite never putting together a full season, never eclipsing 900 yards, and only being one year younger. I can’t say that I understand that. My best guess is it comes down to draft capital (it shouldn’t matter following five years in the league, but Anderson was a UFA), and an adherence to “counting stats” during his first four years without placing into context that he was stuck on the worst team in the NFL.

In any event, Anderson not only broke out in his first year experiencing league-average quarterback play, but also redefined his reputation from “deep target only” to well-rounded receiver. To that point, while his YPR (11.5) was the lowest of his career, he very nearly achieved 100 catches and successfully converted a nice 69.9% of his targets, while also easily leading the team in yards after catch with 514 (46.9% of his yards). It’s true he started faster than he finished (six of his first eight games had at least 74 yards and all had at least four receptions; only two of his last eight games hit this yardage total, and he had two games under four receptions) and he didn’t score touchdowns, but he more than held his own while on the field with two other Top-25 PPR receivers.

Anderson will be back in Carolina for another year, where the Big Three may be reduced to two pending the outcome of Samuel’s free agency. At worst he’ll be paired with Bridgewater once again, with the possibility for a first-round signal-caller via the draft. All told, things are finally looking up after wasting away with the Jets for four years – that his overall ADP doesn’t reflect this and hasn’t even gone up a full single spot over the past year makes him one of the strongest buys in dynasty football.

Curtis Samuel (ADP = 83.50, WR44)

Essentially functioning as a less-targeted Anderson who can also run the ball, Samuel finally made good on his second-round draft capital, compiling the first 1,000-yard (total yards) season of his career. In doing so, and again similar to Anderson, he flipped the script on his catching efficiency, securing a robust 79.4% of his 97 targets, a significant increase from his prior career mark of 55.1%. Unlike Anderson, he finished the season significantly more strongly than he began it, with six of his last eight games going for at least 68 receiving yards, and three that broke the century mark (including his final two).

A dynamic runner, he was used both for gimmick plays and sometimes just as a traditional (backup) running back, adding another 200 yards on the ground (with two scores). While owners may not want to count on 41 yearly carries moving forward, it’s his second season in a row of at least 19 rushes, signaling this ability is clearly a non-negligible part of his game.

As mentioned above, Samuel will be hitting free agency in 2021, with no guarantees he’ll be returning to Charlotte. At this point he’s clearly outplayed his 2020 contract value of $1.2 million, and a yearly value similar to or eclipsing that of Anderson (two years, $20 million) would not be unwarranted. Already up against the cap (91.5% allocated per Spotrac) and with a (likely large) extension looming for Moore, it’s possible Samuel may be elsewhere come 2021. While I’d still prefer Anderson for the cost, Samuel makes for a strong buy moving forward as well.

DJ Moore (ADP = 32.17, WR13)

If you had told me prior to the season that Moore would average 18.1 YPR and play the same number of games as in 2019, there’s no way I’d believe he actually scored fewer points in 2020. And yet, while the spike in downfield prowess led to a slight increase in yards (and an incomparable 80.3% of his receptions resulting in first downs), his catch efficiency dipped from a prior career average of 65.4% down to 55.9% in 2020. While still an excellent season, it was a massive paradigm shift for a player previously best known for his ability to turn short receptions into long gains (though he still notably chipped in 390 YAC).

With eight games of at least 90 yards (including an odd three-game stretch where he had exactly 93 yards each time out), Moore flashed the ceiling we became used to in 2019 plenty. Unfortunately for those of us in PPR leagues, his new usage ultimately held him to four or fewer receptions nine times, with only three contests of six or more catches. He also only had five games of double-digit targets, after having eight in 2019.

Perhaps a potential departure of Samuel will allow for Moore to live the best of both worlds – more “high quality” deep targets, and enough intermediate usage to tack on receptions and YAC. Regardless, we now have a player who in just three short years has shown an ability to win at all levels of the field, and function as a high-end yearly asset. Given the proven (albeit older) players below him in the ADP, I wouldn’t be running to seek a trade, but his current dynasty status is certainly warranted.

Tight Ends

Ian Thomas (ADP = NR)

Apologies to Chris Manhertz and Colin Thompson, but when the team’s top option at the position finishes as the PPR TE54 and is nowhere to be found in the dynasty ADP, this section isn’t going to be particularly robust.

Albeit in a somewhat under the radar manner, Thomas might go down as one of the biggest 2020 fantasy disappointments. In just one year’s time, Thomas went from a ranking of the dynasty TE19 (ADP = 148.50) to being completely undrafted. While this wouldn’t be confused with premium dynasty capital, it was only three rounds behind the TE12 at the time (OJ Howard… another big “woof” there).

In the end, Thomas couldn’t even sequester two targets per game, and once again functioned as a catch-and-fall artist at 7.3 YPR, his third straight season of under 10.0 YPR. After showing elite explosion and above-average speed and athleticism at the 2018 NFL Combine, this is as unexpected as it is disappointing. As mentioned above, Bridgewater clearly had his favorites who he targeted relentlessly, and Thomas wasn’t one of them.

We know the majority of tight ends tend to take several years to pan out, helping explain why they’re not often highly sought after in dynasty rookie drafts. With Thomas only managing 28 collegiate receptions, it may take him even longer than most. Particularly in leagues with shorter benches, it’s more likely than not owners won’t be able to spare the space to wait him out.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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