2021 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Najee Harris, RB Alabama

The 2020 fantasy season is in the rearview mirror, and as we move on to the off-season we must begin preparations for the NFL draft. Despite how things looked during the summer, we saw a fairly fleshed out college football season. Some players used this opportunity to boost themselves into solid first round NFL draft picks, such as 2020 Heisman winner DeVonta Smith. Others, like Najee Harris, continued to prove why they should be considered as one of the top players in their position group.

AS A RECRUIT

Harris was one of the crown jewels of the 2017 college recruiting class. He was a five-star recruit from Antioch High School in California. After only rushing for 165 yards on 33 carries as a Freshman, he went on to rush for 7,783 yards and 93 touchdowns while also compiling another 438 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Ranking courtesy of 24/7 Sports

247sports.com had Harris graded with a composite score of 0.9984, which ranked as the top running back and the second overall among all players in the 2017 recruiting class. He was also the seventh-highest ranked running back in the last 20 years, just barely edging out 2020 standout running back Cam Akers.

Harris received offers from dozens of college football programs. He had given a verbal commitment to Alabama on an unofficial visit during his sophomore year, but he did not officially commit until the winter of his senior year.

COLLEGIATE CAREER

Stats courtesy of Sports Reference

Despite all the benefits there are to playing for a dominant program like Alabama, there are some negatives as well, such as an elite recruit being placed in a timeshare. During Harris’ freshman year, he was fourth on the team in rush attempts behind two five-star running backs in Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough as well as quarterback Jalen Hurts, who led the team in rush attempts in 2017. While Scarbrough moved on to the NFL in 2018, Josh Jacobs stepped up and barely edged out Najee Harris to be second in rush attempts while Damien Harris remained the lead back.

Najee’s teammates moved on to the NFL in 2019 which opened the door for him to receive the lion’s share of the carries in the offense, and he made good use of them. He rushed for 1,224 yards and 13 touchdowns as well as bringing in another 27 receptions for 304 yards and another 7 touchdowns. He tallied over 100 yards from scrimmage in eight out of 13 games and he had seven multiple touchdown games in 2019. Harris was predicted to declare for the 2020 NFL Draft, but he decided to return for his senior season.

Harris’s dominance in Alabama’s offense only grew as he moved into the 2020 season. He rushed for 1,466 yards and 26 touchdowns while also adding another 43 receptions and four receiving touchdowns. He led the nation in rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns from scrimmage on his way to his second national championship. Harris also improved on his consistency by having over 100 yards from scrimmage in ten of his 13 games as well as nine games with multiple touchdowns.

ATHLETIC PROFILE

Measurements courtesy of ESPN.

Harris isn’t likely to put up gaudy numbers at the combine (now replaced with Pro Days) especially compared to some of the smaller and lighter running backs who will be tested. However, when his testing numbers are put into context, he begins to look much more impressive, aside from his 40 time. Harris is probably not going to run the 40 much faster than he did as a recruit. It’s quite possible for him to improve to mid-4.5s, but it’s likely his best-case scenario. This also matches up perfectly with what we have seen on tape from him over the last four years. He lacks elite top speed, but despite that, he’s managed to be one of the most productive college running backs over the last two years.

What he lacks in top speed, he more than makes up for it in burst and short-area quickness. His 20-yard shuttle time would have already been top ten at the combine for running backs 6’1” and taller and 215 lbs and heavier, and he did this as a high school student. Limiting the criteria to those measurements may seem arbitrary, but running backs of his size and stature have different centers of gravity and the increased weight would normally hinder short-area quickness.

Harris is almost the complete package at running back. He runs with an incredible amount of power; his legs never stop and this frequently leads to extra yards. He rarely goes down on first contact, which is a result of the strength he runs with, but also of the elite contact balance he possesses. This play against South Carolina is a perfect example of him using his size and power to turn a 10 or 11-yard gain into a 40+ yard touchdown.

Najee Harris shows a fantastic receiving ability.
He runs the crossing route out of the backfield perfectly creating separation
By the time the saftey catches up Harris throws him to the ground like a rag doll.
Then shows off the rest of what makes him special as a back. pic.twitter.com/eu9cZ0WfEf

— Ryan Cearfoss (@Foss534) January 3, 2020

He is also a patient runner who displays outstanding vision behind the line of scrimmage. The holes he was asked to run through were not always small due to the consistent strength of Alabama’s offensive line, but it doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of getting skinny to fit through a small hole.

Harris also has plenty to offer as a receiver. He is a strong route runner, especially for a running back. He sometimes allows the ball to get into his body, but when he does use his hands to catch, he shows soft hands and frames the ball well. This skill set guarantees he will provide extra value in PPR leagues, as well as ensuring he will see the field early and often with the team who drafts him.

https://twitter.com/DP_NFL/status/1340489488544522241

The only aspect of his game that may hinder him from receiving early playing time is his weakness in pass protection. He appears to show a basic understanding of the form and positioning he should employ as a blocker, but improper technique and a failure to exploit his size and strength cause him to become a liability more often than not.

STRENGTHS

• Powerful runner
• Excellent short-area burst
• Patience behind the line of scrimmage
• Strong vision
• Elite contact balance
• Superior route runner for a running back
• Consistent hands as a receiver

WEAKNESSES

• Play strength doesn’t translate in pass protection
• Lacks high-end top gear
• He will be 23 years old at the start of his rookie season

DRAFT PROJECTION

At this point in the draft process, Harris is viewed as one of the consensus top two running backs, along with Travis Etienne. Neither player is a generational talent so it’s possible neither of them is drafted in the first round, but a second-round selection should not deter any fantasy managers away from either prospect. Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, and Cam Akers were all second-round picks in 2020 and after one season, they are all being drafted as top 14 running backs, according to DLF’s most recent startup ADP. This is despite the fact that all four players had questions about their usage throughout the season due to timeshares.

Landing spot will be fairly inconsequential for Harris as his skill set should easily translate to any blocking scheme. Even if there appears to be a crowded backfield when he arrives, he will likely earn a full-time role for himself, much like many of the 2020 running backs did.

Dynasty Outlook

If Harris lands in a prime landing spot, such as Atlanta, Miami, or Seattle (if Chris Carson is not re-signed) then Harris’ value will go through the roof before he ever touches an NFL field. We will likely see something similar to Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s boost in startup value last summer, though not to the same extreme. This would make him the unquestioned 1.01 rookie pick in non-superflex leagues.

If his landing spot is not as glaringly attractive, then his initial value will be slightly subdued. Fantasy managers should use that as their opportunity to add him to their roster for anything resembling a discount because Harris has the complete skill set necessary to cement himself as a dynasty RB1 for multiple years.