2021 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Kadarius Toney, WR Florida
The NFL Draft is three months away, which means dynasty rookie drafts are also approaching. This year’s rookie class features another talented group of wide receivers. It includes top-end talents such as Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith along with some late-round upside plays. Kadarius Toney figures to be part of the second group, though he is gaining momentum.
After a quiet first three years at Florida, in 2020 he led the Gators in receptions and receiving yards. While he is an interesting prospect, and certainly fun to watch, his overall profile has some gaps that may limit his draft capital. In this article, we use multiple tools to form a complete view of Toney as a draft prospect and dynasty asset.
AS A RECRUIT
Toney was a rather low-profile recruit. He played track and football at rural Blount High School (enrollment: 961) outside Mobile, Alabama. He was a three-star prospect in the 2017 recruiting class rated outside the top 400 players in the country across all positions. He played quarterback his final two prep seasons, so was listed as an athlete rather than a wide receiver in the recruiting databases. He did, however, earn scholarships from schools such as South Carolina and Ole Miss, as well as one from in-state Alabama. He enrolled at Florida in advance of the 2017 season.
Courtesy of 247Sports.
COLLEGIATE CAREER
Toney played in eight games as a true freshman and produced a modest 15-152-0 receiving line. In fact, he remained quiet throughout his first three years as a Gator, totaling just 50 receptions for 606 yards and two touchdowns. This is a red flag for his profile as for three seasons he was unable to earn targets over players such as Van Jefferson, Freddie Swain, and Josh Hammond.
He was suspended for the 2018 season opener against Charleston Southern for two separate off-season incidents. In one case, a loaded AR-15 was found in the back seat of his car during a traffic stop. In 2019, he missed six games due to injury.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
It was not until his senior season that Toney managed to cross the 20% team market share threshold that serves as a benchmark predictor of NFL success – and he just managed to do so with a 21.8% mark.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
ATHLETIC PROFILE
Toney is fun to watch. He makes defenders miss with both strength and quickness. He also has the speed to finish with a score. He appears as thick as his listed 6’0” and 193 pounds but he has the elusiveness of someone smaller. It is this blend of quickness and strength that is his best quality.
He starts this play looking like a basketball player breaking to the basket off a screen. He ends the play showing the speed to eat a defender’s angle and absorbing a big hit for another yard or two.
Another @seniorbowl receiver is Florida Gators WR Kadarius Toney. He's so creative at creating separation. Explosive and a blast to watch. Tons of agility and short-area quickness in his game. Starting to get lots of love in the Draft community. pic.twitter.com/zjbJVJh95y
— Zack Patraw (@ZackPatraw) January 10, 2021
This four-minute highlight reel gives a good feel of his game. Give him a little space and he is a YAC creator. He routinely beats defenders with sharp cuts and strength. Once he does so, he has the adequate speed to score. The Gators manufactured touches for him, and he succeeds at multiple levels of the field.
STRENGTHS
- Though far from physically imposing, he is more solid than his style suggests
- Versatile production as a receiver and a rusher
- Yards after the catch producer; may not need high volume to be productive
WEAKNESSES
- One-year wonder with subpar production metrics including breakout age and market share
- Not a prototypical WR1; a complementary tool rather than an alpha
- Poor projected draft capital
For a closer look at Toney’s game, check out his DLF Prospect Page for recent articles and rankings.
DRAFT PROJECTION
Most projections have Toney as a day three selection. However, coming off a productive season, he does have momentum as the draft process begins. Some reputable sites have him in the second round among players such as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tylan Wallace.
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
The receivers in this neighborhood have more complete resumes than Toney’s. St Brown, for example, was a top ten overall prep recruit whose production metrics as a true freshman exceed Toney’s as a senior. Wallace, Seth Williams, and Elijah Moore all have superior athletic profiles and/or more consistent year-to-year production. I will stand pat and project Toney as a late-round NFL draft pick.
DYNASTY VALUE
The DLF devy team ranks Toney as the number 37 prospect across all positions and draft classes. This puts him as the devy WR18 among receivers such as Louisville’s Tutu Atwell and Maryland true freshman Rakim Jarrett. Among 2021 prospects, he is 25th in the DLF Devy Rankings. This valuation would put him in the late second or early third round dynasty of 1QB rookie drafts.
Our Devy ADP data assigns him an even lower value. He is not included in the top 69 players of ADP. However, recent data suggests he is rising in value. An in-house DLF devy mock draft that concluded on December 28 saw him selected 37th overall, just behind fellow wide receivers Elijah Moore from Ole Miss and USC’s Drake London.
The DLF Cornerstone Rankings combine first- and second-year NFL players with 2021 prospects. In this group of players, Toney comes in at 58th overall (WR31) around players such as Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Mecole Hardman, and Parris Campbell. It is the neighborhood of young players who enjoyed a brief window of hype but who are now on a downward trajectory.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
