2021 Dynasty Capsule: Dallas Cowboys
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
After winning three of their last four games and just missing the playoffs, the Dallas Cowboys finished the 2020 season with a 6-10 record. It was a rough season that saw them decimated with injuries. The team earned the tenth pick in the NFL Draft, which will help them fill some holes on both sides of the ball.
With how bad things turned out this year, Dallas’s roster is still loaded with valuable dynasty assets. The team is expected to rebound in 2021 and many of these players will revert to being top producers in fantasy.
QUARTERBACK
Dak Prescott (ADP: 76, QB7)
Age: 27
His season ended abruptly when he suffered a compound fracture and a dislocated right ankle against the New York Giants in week five. Prescott scored in the top five at his position for three straight weeks and was the QB1, averaging 31.30 fantasy points per game before the injury.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
The injury tanked his dynasty value, dropping his startup ADP by around 38 spots, creating a buying opportunity at the end of the season. With him being projected to be back at full health by the start of the season, we should see his value climb during the summer months. Since his ADP jumped 14 spots from December to January, the buying window is quickly closing.
Cowboys VP Stephen Jones on @1053thefan said they’d love to have Andy Dalton back, “But at the end of the day, and Andy knows this, this is Dak’s football team. We’re obviously very committed to getting Dak signed.”
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) January 4, 2021
There’s some ambiguity as to where he’s going to be playing next year. With the downward spiral, the team experienced after Prescott’s injury combined with the “sweet-nothings” that are mentioned from the front office in the media, there’s a good chance he will be in a Cowboys’ uniform in 2021.
Dallas invested heavily at the wide receiver position in recent years and they currently have one of the best receiving corps in the league. He should have the supporting cast to be able to produce high-level fantasy results with the Cowboys next season.
Andy Dalton (ADP N/A)
Age: 33
Courtesy of Spotrac.com.
Dalton signed a one-year deal last May. He will be a free agent this off-season. The Cowboys are not expected to bring him back. From now on we should see him holding a clipboard with him spot-starting intermittently for the rest of his career. The days of him being a usable fantasy asset are over.
RUNNING BACK
Ezekiel Elliott, (ADP 22.17, RB13)
Age: 25
This wasn’t the most productive season of Elliott’s career. He posted just six RB1 weeks on the season compared to his nine from the year prior. Injuries to the offensive line and Prescott hindered his ability to get rolling. He posted just two 100-yards games and just three games with 20 or more rushing attempts. There were signs of him slowing down throughout the year as he posted only five runs of 15 yards or more and he provided just 2.82 yards after contact per attempt.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
Multiple factors played into the sharp dip of his ADP. We saw a very talented rookie running back class infiltrate the NFL. He will turn 26 years old in July and many dynasty gamers don’t want to be left holding the bag if his production falls even further. Then there’s recency bias from a 2020 season that was the worst-case scenario when you factor injuries and bad quarterback play.
January ADP has him valued as a career-low RB13. The drop in value could be marked as a buying opportunity for win-now dynasty managers. There’s a good chance he’s back to posting routine RB1 weeks once Prescott and the gang are back healthy in 2021.
Tony Pollard, (ADP 115.67, RB36)
Age: 23
Pollard provided some electricity down the stretch for the Cowboys. He finished the season as the RB41 in fantasy. His performance in week 15 against the 49ers showed a glimpse of what life could be like in Dallas without Elliott. In that game, he caught six passes for 63 yards and scored two rushing touchdowns. Pollard was the lightning to Elliott’s thunder and appeared to be the more explosive back.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
We are currently seeing a spike in his value which is very encouraging. Typically, younger players who flash their potential see a boost in their overall and positional ADP in the following off-season. There should be no exceptions made for Pollard. Whether he materializes into a stud back or hovers around the league as a backup running back, he’s going to hold his value for at least through the off-season.
Pollard is a pass-catching back who exemplifies a lot of burst when running in the open field. If an injury occurs to Elliott or if he somehow gets traded, then we could see his ADP drive to RB1 status. Even if Elliott gets back on track, Pollard has proven himself enough to receive a larger workload that could drive results down the road.
WIDE RECEIVER
Amari Cooper (ADP 38.17, WR16)
Age: 26
Cooper recorded his fifth-straight 1,000-yard season. This was the first year he exceeded the 90-catch mark. Per PFF, he recorded 1.81 yards per route run and only dropped 3.2 percent of the targets thrown his way. Even with the offense in shambles he still managed to finish at the WR15 in fantasy with nine weeks producing WR2 numbers or better.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
Considering how this season ended for the Cowboys and how Cooper was able to maximize most of his opportunities, it’s easy to say that he’s appropriately valued at this point in his career. He has been one of the most efficient wide receivers in football over the last couple of years. Many dynasty gamers will find themselves at a crossroads when it comes to drafting him at his current price tag. He’s at the age where we could start seeing a decrease in his production but he’s also young enough to be productive for multiple seasons.
Courtesy of Spotrac.com.
The Cowboys have him locked under contract through the 2024 season. However, they have a potential out after 2021 where it could make sense for them to cut him to save some cap space. The potential out leads into his age-28 season where we could start seeing a drop in his overall performance.
With the Cowboys wanting to keep Prescott on the roster as a long-term option, cutting ties from Cooper might be an option to control costs. Cooper’s contract should be baked into his long-term player value. This isn’t a cause to completely avoid him, but dynasty buyers should be aware.
CeeDee Lamb (ADP 16.83, WR7)
Age: 21
Lamb started his career off strong, catching 74 passes for 935 yards and five touchdowns. He finished the season as WR24 and provided two WR1 weeks. The Cowboys utilized him in the slot on 93.6 percent of his snaps. He owned a 22 percent share of the team’s air yards.
With him breaking out as a rookie, he’s going to be highly coveted in dynasty. Lamb will be a cornerstone for many dynasty teams. He’s only 21 years old and still has a lot of time to develop into one of the top wide receivers in the league. 
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
We are going to see his positional value maintain its strength throughout the off-season. From there, his value will be tethered to his production. Unless he drops off the face of the earth, we should not see the bottom fall out of his stock anytime soon. Lamb will be a safe consistent fantasy asset for most of his career.
Michael Gallup (ADP 81.83, WR43)
Age: WR43
It was an interesting year for Gallup as it appears, he was the wide receiver who was impacted the most by Prescott’s injury. He still managed to catch 53 passes for 843 yards and five touchdowns. The most encouraging thing to note from his 2020 season was his usage. Gallup led the team with 1,243 air yards while owning a 27 percent share of the team’s air yards. His 11.7 air yards per target indicates he’s the team’s deep threat. However, when you are fostered in a carousel of bad quarterback, those deep targets get harder to convert. Even though he’s the team’s deep-ball specialist, Per PFF he was second on the team with 20 targets of 20 yards or more.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
The market might have overcorrected with Gallup’s ADP. His dip in production was due to unpredictable circumstances. If Prescott is back under center for the Cowboys, we could see him benefit from the added passing volume. He is currently being valued as the WR43 in dynasty but has the potential of producing low-end WR2 production if the offense can revert to its old form. The deep targets project him as a volatile option in fantasy.
His contract is set to expire at the end of the 2021 season. We could see his value flip on its head if he leaves the team for a less than favorable situation. Gallup is a sound wide receiver and can be productive with a lot of teams in the league. However, it’s hard to envision him not paired with Prescott.
Cedrick Wilson (ADP N/A)
Age: 25
Wilson had his moments. He became the hot waiver wire add in redraft leagues when he caught five passes for 107 yards and two touchdowns in week three against the Seattle Seahawks. Wilson will be a restricted free agent this off-season.
Noah Brown (ADP N/A)
Age: 25
Brown was used sparingly, seeing just 24 targets on the season. The former seventh-round pick will be a free agent this off-season. Given he hasn’t developed into a staple of the team’s offensive game plan, the team is more than likely going to let me test the free-agent waters.
TIGHT END
Blake Jarwin (ADP 199.50, TE25)
Age: 26
Jarwin’s season ended abruptly when he suffered an ACL injury in week one. He is expected to be the Cowboy’s starting tight end since the team extended his contract last off-season. The injury has discounted his dynasty value. He’s now on average the 25th tight end off the board in startup drafts. Jarwin was a trendy tight end prospect in both redraft and dynasty going into last season due to the vacated targets left by Randall Cobb and Jason Witten. There’s a chance he could develop into a cheap TE1 if he comes back healthy next season.
Dalton Schultz (ADP 229, TE32)
Age: 24
Schultz stepped in after Jarwin went to injured reserve. He caught 63 passes for 615 yards and four touchdowns while owning a 14 percent target share. The three-year veteran produced five TE1 weeks and finished as the TE14 on the season. He earned his way to more playing time next season. It might not be enough to make him fantasy-relevant but his game tape from the 2020 season could allow him to latch on to another team when he hits free agency in 2022.
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