Twitter Observations: When to Sell Studs Like Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers

Deshaun Watson

Michael Moore Posted On January 9, 2021

The real-life playoffs may be here but we’re just beginning the off-season in dynasty leagues. And despite no roster moves to speak of yet, Twitter is still alight with rumors and developments you should keep an eye on for your dynasty team.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Elementary my dear Watson

There's a growing buzz in league circles that Deshaun Watson could ask to be traded, and his new contract doesn't make that as difficult as you'd think https://t.co/wvY5BxQZRq

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) January 7, 2021

Big trades happen much more frequently in dynasty and fantasy leagues than they do in real-life so this would be rare. But if the reports of Deshaun Watson being unhappy enough to want to be traded are true, we could see it happen. The Texans are apparently backtracking on their word to include Watson in management decisions and it isn’t sitting well – especially since the Texans appear to be going back to the same well (the Patriots) as they did before which isn’t a sign of change at all.

It’s especially disappointing when you consider Watson is literally coming off his best season. He averaged nearly nine yards per attempt, over 300 yards per game and threw for 4,800 yards and 33 touchdowns on the season. He notched his third-straight top-five quarterback fantasy scoring season, something not even Patrick Mahomes has done (Mahomes missed two games in 2019 due to injury).

Dynasty Impact: The uncertainty around Watson’s future couldn’t have come at a worse time for dynasty owners. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, his value is currently less than a mid-first round rookie pick. That’s a bargain even in 1QB leagues as Watson could be your franchise quarterback for a decade.

But I’m not sure you can risk paying that price if you don’t know where Watson ends up. Sure, he played well under two coaches in a largely failed season where his team finished with the third-worst record in the league and no draft capital to speak of. But what if a team that trades for him doesn’t quite let him sling it as before to produce those top-five fantasy numbers? Unfortunately, this isn’t a buy-low window just yet as Watson’s cost is just right no matter what the situation.

Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood

Aaron Rodgers red zone stats in 2020:
🎯 35 TDs (1st)
🎯 73% completion rate (1st) pic.twitter.com/GMqmujQ1gh

— PFF (@PFF) January 7, 2021

After entering the 2020 season with more uncertainty than he’s ever had as the Packers starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers did what he always has done. He threw for 4,000 yards (his ninth such season); averaged more than eight yards per attempt (his sixth such season); and threw at least 40 touchdowns (his third such season). He was a QB1 in fantasy scoring just like he’s always done when he’s played an entire season and is on his way to winning MVP honors. For dynasty owners of Rodgers, it was another year where the quarterback position was the least of their problems.

Dynasty Impact: Now the question turns to what kind of season was this for Rodgers? Was it the peak? After all, the 48 touchdowns he threw were a career-high and included 11 games of at least three touchdowns. Those numbers are downright Mahomesian except for the fact that Mahomes has time on his side. Rodgers will enter 2021 as a 37-year-old quarterback with only a few seasons left, at best. This is the only explanation for why Rodgers dynasty value has gradually seen a decline:

In looking at the DLF Trade Analyzer, Rodgers current cost is somewhere between a late-first round rookie pick and early second-round pick. If you’re a contender in a 1QB league without an elite option at quarterback, Rodgers would be a good pickup at the second-round price. He’s shown no signs of slowing down and is the ultimate win-now option.

Run CMC

Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, and Derrick Henry.

What do these four RBs have in common?

They're the only running backs who finished with more 24.8-plus PPR point performances than Christian McCaffrey this year.

McCaffrey played just three games this season.

— Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL) January 5, 2021

It is good to know Christian McCaffrey, despite his injury-riddled season, still acted like a stud in a limited capacity. In the three games he did play, he continued to be the focal point of the offense under new coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Extrapolating out his three games to a full season, McCaffrey would have easily rushed for 1,000 yards and was on pace for 15 touchdowns – and that was just the running game. On the receiving end, he would have eclipsed 500 more yards and five more touchdowns. It was bittersweet as McCaffrey owners only got a taste of what could have been.

Dynasty Impact: Generally, when an asset reaches peak value, that’s the time to sell it. It pains me to say but we might be there with McCaffrey. Not just because he’s coming off injuries serious enough to knock him out for most of the season, but he’ll enter 2021 one year older at 25 years young. Furthermore, the bigger concern would be the change in play callers before next season. A simple Google search of Brady’s name will pull up stories of him being interviewed by, seemingly, every team with a head coaching vacancy. The number of calls increases the chances Brady moves on and someone else comes in. It’s obviously much too early to predict who will take over but it’s very possible it’s someone with a philosophy that doesn’t rely on its running back.

Currently, McCaffrey is still being taken first overall in dynasty startups. This equates to at least an early first-round rookie pick – first overall early – PLUS a veteran receiver along the lines of a Mike Evans or Allen Robinson. Honestly, I would consider that deal especially if you’re rebuilding or multiple pieces away. Not that McCaffrey isn’t great but how much is one player worth? This off-season might be the one to find out.

Cool Brees

“Everybody expects” that Drew Brees will retire after this season, per @AdamSchefter pic.twitter.com/gHRTa5mr1n

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 3, 2021

This isn’t terribly surprising considering the gradual decline of Brees’ play and the accumulation of injuries. This is the second season in a row Brees has played no more than 75% of the Saints’ games and his 245 yards per game in 2020 were his lowest in 15 years. Brees has been reliable for a lifetime (in dynasty circles) but all good things must come to an end.

But what of the studs around him? Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are both in their prime with turning in elite production over the last two years (Thomas was hobbled by injury most of this year but was still effective when he played. With Brees heading off into the sunset, what do we do with them?

Dynasty Impact: The silver lining to Brees missing time this year was we did get to see what life will be like without him. For Thomas, Taysom Hill under center was like any other day. He saw 37 targets over four games and turned in two 100-yard games, something he failed to do with Brees under center this year. It was a different story with Kamara who failed to top 100 total yards in any game started by Hill. He did score three times, which help off-set the lack of yardage, but it still wasn’t anywhere near the volume he saw with Brees. That makes sense when you consider how much more rushing Hill does than Brees which could be incorporated into the offense next year.

All of this to say that elite receivers are much easier to hold on to than running backs. Right now, both Thomas and Kamara are at the top of their game:

But I might consider moving Kamara this off-season if you can get a King’s ransom for him. Thomas looks like a hold as he should continue to be elite no matter who the quarterback will be in 2021.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.