Last-Minute Gifts: Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki

Eric Hardter Posted On January 7, 2021

With another season behind us, what’s a dynasty aficionado to do (besides looking forward to the symbolic hope of the year 2021, just like the rest of the world!)? Hopefully you’re able to bask in the warmth of a hard-won championship (or two…or three), but our work as owners is never done. At DLF our motto is “there is no off-season,” and as such I’m hopeful to lay out some potential next steps as we navigate into the long, cold fantasy football-less months.

In that spirit, and taking the holidays into account, this yearly continuation of my 2019 mini-series seeks to explore some players who were able to show signs of fantasy viability (whether newly proven or resurgent), but still appear to be discounted per the DLF ADP (as of December, 2020). In other words, these players have outperformed what would currently constitute their startup draft slot. So even though the fantasy championships are in the rearview, I want to provide my opinions on which players you can do a little last-minute shopping for!

Let’s conclude with the tight ends!

Darren Waller, TE LV

ADP = TE4

2020 Player Rank = PPR TE2

No one in their right mind is going to argue that the dynasty tight end hierarchy begins with Travis Kelce and George Kittle (pick your order). And while Waller is only a couple of spots below, my argument for his inclusion here is twofold:

He should be the dynasty TE3 over TJ Hockenson; and
His overall value (ADP = 64.0) should be significantly higher.

Now I’ll grant you that the first argument is somewhat flimsy, as the two players are back to back in not only the TE ADP, but the overall ADP as well. But this is where the second argument effectively ties in, which is that I don’t believe it should be that close.

My biggest argument is that Waller is a tight end who efficiently functions as the team’s WR1. In other words, he easily leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards, and is tied for the team lead in touchdowns with Nelson Agholor. With this WR-esque workload he stands as the 2020 PPR TE2, but would actually also slot in as the PPR WR8. Last year? The PPR TE2, and would’ve slotted in as the PPR WR19.

So all told Waller is putting up high-end WR numbers, but at a barren position where having a weekly advantage is critical. He’s only 28, which is three years younger than Kelce and only one year older than Kittle. Perhaps there will be some course correction in the off-season, but I think his merits warrant an ADP bump of a couple of rounds.

Mike Gesicki, TE MIA

ADP = TE11

2020 Player Rank = PPR TE7

Along with quarterback Josh Allen, Gesicki is the only repeat inclusion from last year’s list. The rationale is much of the same as it was last year – he’s an athletic freak with second-round draft capital who improved (again) since the previous season. For whatever reason, the ADP hasn’t quite caught up.

I recognize there is something of an oversaturation in the “middle to back end TE1” tier, and as of yet Gesicki hasn’t transcended that group of players. But once again he’s managed to improve his numbers from the previous year, and despite playing in two fewer games he already has 12 more PPR points in 2020 than he did all of 2019. There is certainly some suspense as to whether or not Tua Tagovailoa will be “the guy,” but if he is he’s shown a preference for targeting Gesicki.

So all told we have a player who is arguably peerless from an athletic perspective, continues to improve, and is paired with an early first-round draft pick who likes to look his way. While Gesicki hasn’t yet emerged from the “mushy middle” of the TE1 hierarchy, all signs point to him being well on his way.

Logan Thomas, TE WAS

ADP = TE19

2020 Player Rank = PPR TE6

A true 2020 breakout (yes, there were in fact a few positive happenings this year!), the former quarterback eclipsed the totality of his prior stats in just this season alone. With a nice 69-633-5 line, it’s apparent that Thomas hasn’t been a dynamic presence for the WFT, but he has been highly reliable in the short-yardage game while speedsters like Terry McLaurin and Steven Sims are tasked with taking the lid off the defense.

Though Thomas was spotty early on, he’s hit his stride over the season’s last month, where he’s seen at least seven targets in each contest. He’s a reasonable red zone threat as well, and actually leads the team’s moribund passing offense in touchdowns. Positional switches take time, but all told it seems like Thomas is on the right track.

The WFT has a number of holes on offense right now, but that could actually work in Thomas’ favor as he’s signed through the next season. Quarterback and receiver would likely take precedent, and Thomas might not face any new competition come 2021. While it remains unlikely he joins the elite tight end tier, mid-range PPR TE1 value at a mid-range TE2 dynasty price remains appetizing.

Eric Ebron, TE PIT

ADP = TE22

2020 Player Rank = PPR TE10

When I consider Ebron, I think back to what I said about Nelson Agholor when I discussed the last-minute wide receiver gifts. Here we have a former first-round pick who perhaps didn’t live all the way up to expectations, but was far from a bust. To wit, he finished as the PPR TE13, TE14, and TE13 from 2015-2017, and then exploded in a touchdown-fueled rampage to emerge as the PPR TE4 in 2018. He again fell off that pace last season, and injury wound up costing him the final five games of the season.

So once again we have an athletic marvel who has shown a decent amount of talent, tailed off, and was essentially forgotten. Now paired with Ben Roethlisberger he has returned to status as a reasonable back-end TE1 and even has an outside shot at accumulating 100 targets on the season.

Perhaps most interestingly, Ebron entered the league at a young age and is still only 27 despite nearly concluding his seventh season. Much like Thomas above, it’s possible he’ll top out as a back-end TE1 moving forward, but with Ebron we at least have the evidence that more is possible. He’ll be back with the Steelers in 2021, and Roethlisberger has also already professed a desire to return. Buying now for the price of a low-end dynasty TE2 could pay dividends for owners looking to beef up the position.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27 (even though I don’t post anymore)

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.