Take a Chance on Me: Running Backs

Back 15 or so years ago, I was living up near Minneapolis, Minnesota. Every weekend during football season, Paul Charchian, one of the grandfathers of fantasy football, would host a radio show about fantasy football. This was back before the time of podcasts, and he would often talk about how it was the first of its kind. Regardless of if it was or not, he had a segment on each weekend that featured various covers of the Abba song “Take a Chance on Me” before he would talk about a player at each of the major positions who was on the waiver wire in most leagues that he was willing to ‘take a chance on’ in his starting lineup for that weekend and that weekend only.

Why am I taking this trip down memory lane with you? Well, the fantasy playoffs are coming to a close which means some dynasty owners are preparing for or already in their winter hibernation. However, the savvy owner knows this is the time to step up their game and do what they can to strengthen their roster for next year. Someone who might cost a fourth-round rookie pick now could have a third or even second-round pick value in a few months once free agency and the draft roll around.

In this mini-series, I’m going to highlight a few players at each position who might not be on waivers but could be pretty close to it at this point in time. While they are there for a reason, there are a few of them who give us some reason to hope that they could see a nice increase in their value by the time the 2021 season rolls around. Keep in mind that I’m not advocating paying a second-round pick for any of these guys. I’m simply saying it might be time to see what you can do with a middle or late-round pick because it might be worth it to take a chance on them!

I already took a look at the signal-callers. You can find my selections for that group here. Now let’s move on to the running back position. In order to be eligible for consideration, the player needs to be ranked lower than an RB3 in a 12-team league, so I’m looking at positions 37 or later in our DLF rankings.

Tony Pollard, RB DAL

We all know that more than any other positions, running backs are all about opportunity. You can have someone who is supremely talented but never gets a chance to show it. You can also have an average talent who gets to put on a show week in and week out because they are in the perfect situation. When it comes to a “take a chance on me” running back, I’m looking for a combination of talent and potential opportunity to showcase it! I think Pollard is a great mix of the two.

I know what all of you are thinking. Ezekiel Elliot is ‘the guy’ in Dallas, and I agree with you for the most part. However, we saw a few things this past year that make me wonder just enough that I might be willing to take a chance on Pollard. The first one is his productivity. Through 15 games this year, Pollard has just under 100 carries, which is a pretty solid sample size. With those carries, he is averaging 4.4 yards per attempt to go with five touchdowns, which is just over one touchdown every 20 carries, and definitely puts him at NFL starter level in terms of production.

Some might be quick to give the credit to Dallas’s hyped up (I think overhyped) offensive line. However, Elliott is only averaging 4.1 yards per attempt and has just four touchdowns on more than double the carries. I know he gets a lot more attention than Pollard from defenses, but it still makes me wonder just a bit.

The second item that makes me wonder a bit is opportunity. Elliott has for the most part been an extremely healthy player. However, he’s also been used a lot. In 2018 and 2019, he had over 350 touches each year. We started to see some nagging issues this year, which have resulted in Pollard being used a bit more often. I only expect this trend to continue as the Cowboys try to keep their $90 million running back fresh and healthy as his career progresses. Elliott is only 25, but he already has over 1,600 NFL touches to his name. Once the offense gets back into shape next year, I expect Pollard to push for 150 touches, which might be enough to get him into the flex play discussion with back end RB1 upside should Elliott ever miss a game.

The downside for Pollard is that he’s under contract until 2022 with the Cowboys, which means his upside could be limited unless there is an injury to Elliott or he gets traded, the latter of which is rather unlikely.

Gus Edwards, RB BAL

This is about as far from a sexy selection as you can get right now. I can almost hear what you are thinking but give me a few moments to explain my thinking on this one. Edwards is likely to be cheap, and he’s a free agent at the end of the season. The Ravens just invested a high draft pick in JK Dobbins to be their lead running back of the future and they still have Justice Hill under contract for the next few years as well. I think it is pretty likely that Edwards is wearing a different uniform in 2021 as a low-cost addition to a different roster.

The thing is, in the right situation, I think Edwards can thrive. When you look at his 2020 numbers, he is right there with Dobbins in most categories including carries, yards per carry, and touchdowns. It has been almost a perfect 50/50 split between the two this year. If you put Edwards in a situation where his 140-150 carries he will likely have this season turn into 250 carries, you could see someone with over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. I know not every team is built like the Ravens when it comes to running the ball, but I don’t think the average person realizes just how productive Edwards has been.

I think he’s going to be a very under the radar free agent signing for someone, but he has the body, the talent, and the history of production to be a very good flier given the price it is going to take to pick him up right now.

Jeff Wilson Jr, RB SF

Another free agent at the end of the 2020 season, though the restricted variety, Wilson just put on a show in week 16. This might make him a little tougher to pry away from his current owners, but it is still worth a shot! The thing is, this wasn’t the first time that Wilson has done this exact thing. He dominated the Patriots in week seven to the tune of 112 yards on 17 carries and three touchdowns before going down with an ankle injury and missing the next month or so before working his way back into playing time due to injuries to others. I think he might be here to stay though with his recent performance.

The 49ers currently have a four or five-headed monster at the position, but Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman are both free agents and unlikely to be re-signed by the team. This will leave Wilson with the oft-injured Raheem Mostert as his main competition for touches. I think Wilson has the talent to produce even in a shared backfield, and he just might win the job outright if his current flashes in week seven and week 16 can be trusted. There is a lot to like here for his future, and it is entirely possible that if he doesn’t get a featured role in red and gold in 2021, he could be moving elsewhere in 2022. I think he’s definitely worth inquiring about to see what the asking price might be given what he has done. Hopefully, he can get a little more opportunity, avoid the injury bug, and be more consistent.

Ito Smith, RB ATL

People might not realize this, but on a per touch basis, Smith has been the most productive running back in Atlanta this year. He is also the only one of the top three rushers to not be a free agent at the end of the season. Todd Gurley is likely to carry a price tag that exceeds the value he brings to the team and Brian Hill is little more than a warm body at the position. As the season has gone on, Smith’s snap count has increased at the expense of Hill, which bodes well for the future even if Hill were to be re-signed at a cheap price tag.

The Falcons also have a lot of other holes that are going to be developing sooner rather than later. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are both starting to move or may have already moved past their prime years and the team is going to need to work on a plan at those positions for the future. This means they are unlikely to invest much at the running back position, which could leave Smith in the driver’s seat heading into training camp, likely competing with a late-round draft pick at best.

While I think Smith’s talent could limit his ceiling, we have all seen many examples of merely average talents who have turned into solid fantasy assets for a year or two based purely on the situation and the opportunity. I think Smith has a shot to be one of those guys who could at the very least provide a very solid return on your investment if the cards land in just the right way.

That’s it for a few running backs I think you might be able to get at a discount right now in hopes of seeing their value grow as we head into the 2021 season. Just remember, I am not advocating spending a second-round rookie pick on any of these players, just saying to put a few feelers out there and see what it might cost. If it’s a late-round pick as people get rookie fever, then pounce.

Wide receivers are next on the list!

Take a Chance on Me: Running Backs