Last-Minute Gifts: Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott

Eric Hardter Posted On January 4, 2021

With another season behind us, what’s a dynasty aficionado to do (besides looking forward to the symbolic hope of the year 2021, just like the rest of the world!)? Hopefully you’re able to bask in the warmth of a hard-won championship (or two…or three), but our work as owners is never done. At DLF our motto is “there is no off-season,” and as such I’m hopeful to lay out some potential next steps as we navigate into the long, cold fantasy football-less months.

In that spirit, and taking the holidays into account, this yearly continuation of my 2019 mini-series seeks to explore some players who were able to show signs of fantasy viability (whether newly proven or resurgent), but still appear to be discounted per the DLF ADP (as of December, 2020). In other words, these players have outperformed what would currently constitute their startup draft slot. So even though the fantasy championships are in the rearview, I want to provide my opinions on which players you can do a little last-minute shopping for!

Let’s get started with the quarterbacks!

Josh Allen, QB BUF

ADP = QB7 (9)

2020 Player Rank = QB2

Wait, what?

Believe it or not, Allen was the initial entry in this space last year, but surely after his 2020 explosion, he couldn’t be a “buy,” could he?

Indeed, despite lapping nearly the entirety of the field (well done, QB1 Kyler Murray), Allen has only increased his positional ADP two measly spots over the course of the past year, from QB9 to QB7. And while I’m not here to debate the merit of the players above him, consider the following:

His points per game were only 1.4 lower than the output of Lamar Jackson’s blowup last season;
Ditto Patrick Mahomes from 2018;
In three years in the league, Allen has accumulated 1,559 rushing yards and 25 rushing scores (including a 100-418-8 line this season);
During that same three-year period, only Jackson has accumulated more rushing yards at the QB position, with an aggregate 471-2,809-19 line;
All told Jackson averages only 1.9 PPG more from rushing than does Allen;
In successive years, Allen has seen the following jumps (note that 2020 totals are through 16 games):
- Attempts: 320 to 461 to 547
- Completion percentage: 52.8% to 58.8% to a nice 69.1%
- Yards: 2,074 to 3,089 to 4.320
- YPA: 6.5 to 6.7 to 7.9
- TDs: 10 to 20 to 34
Allen is still just 24 years old

While I won’t project my hypothesis onto the dynasty masses, the only thing that makes sense to me is that dynasty owners who didn’t think the jumps from 2018 to 2019 were large enough now think the jumps from 2019 to 2020 are unsustainable. While that could be possible, I’ll choose to gamble on a quarterback who has improved each and every year.

I won’t contest Mahomes as the dynasty QB1, but I believe Allen has an argument for being valued as high as the dynasty QB2.

Dak Prescott, QB DAL

ADP = QB9

2020 Player Rank = QB32 (QB1 in PPG)

While I do believe what I said above about Mahomes as the dynasty QB1, had Prescott remained healthy for a full season I believe he’d be firmly in the conversation.

As a testament to the torrid pace with which he began the 2020 season, Prescott is still amongst the top-32 highest scoring QBs, despite only playing in 4.5 games. Factoring out the week five contest where he was injured versus the Giants, Prescott’s per game average stood at a robust 422.5 yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns, with 86 more rushing yards and three rushing scores thrown in. I’m not going to pretend he was going to average 50 attempts per game for the entirety of the season, but Prescott was easily the best source of offense on the team.

The Dallas offensive line isn’t what it used to be, but the pass catchers are even better. With all three of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Ceedee Lamb expected back for 2021, along with tight end Blake Jarwin, Prescott should return to the best weapons he’s ever had. Still only 27, I could see selling high on the more highly-rated signal-callers (e.g. Murray, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert) if you believe you’ll be getting a healthy Prescott and change in return.

Derek Carr, QB LV

ADP = QB22

2020 Player Rank = QB14

I’m not going to try to sell you on Carr as your QB1, because I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him there outside of deeper leagues. But for a QB2 in a superflex or 2QB league, you could do a lot worse.

Somewhat unfairly maligned, Carr is now on his third straight year of playing quality football. During this time he has hovered around completing 68-69% of his passes at over 7.5 YPA, while improving his TD:INT ratio to a palatable 3:1. He has also just finished his third straight season with over 4,000 passing yards.

With additions of players like Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Nelson Agholor, along with the continued dominance of Darren Waller and a fine stable of pass-catching running backs, the Raiders have quietly improved at the skill positions over the years. Carr may not be the guy to best elevate those around him, but he’s been functional with his above-average supporting cast. Still only 29, he’s a sensible target during your league’s rookie draft.

Taysom Hill, QB NO

ADP = QB24

2020 Player Rank = QB33 (~QB12 in PPG when he actually started at QB)

Admittedly, Hill represents a tough valuation, and I won’t fault owners who don’t want to sink much capital given his current quagmire with the Saints. For him to return value, not only would veteran stalwart and Bayou staple Drew Brees have to retire, but the Saints would have to abstain from bringing in competition via either free agency or the draft. Given that Hill is already 30 years old, the bottom could fall out rather quickly should one (or both) of these events go sideways.

With that said, it’s notable that even after signing Jameis Winston, it was Hill who got the call as QB1 in Brees’ four-game absence. During this stretch, he was highly accurate (>70% completion) and showed an ability to push the ball downfield. Though he didn’t populate the stat sheet with passing scores and needed to take better care of the ball, this was likely a better-than-expected development. Adding in the previously known rushing prowess (50 YPG and four rushing scores), Hill was checking in with right around 23 PPG (depending on your league’s turnover penalties), even when throwing in the affair versus a quarterback-less Denver squad (sadly, Kendall Hinton will not make this year’s list).

Likely your potential acquisition will come down to your trade partner’s feelings, as I wouldn’t expect there to be many fence-sitters amongst Hill owners. Likely they are ready to cash out, or believe he’s a future QB1. I’d be happy to deal with the former so long as the price was reasonable (a second-round pick in a superflex league, perhaps), but would likely balk at the latter since that’s what you’re hoping he would turn into, not what you want to pay for.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27 (even though I don’t post anymore)

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.