Sunday Six Pack: Week 17
The 2020 season is going to go down as one of the craziest seasons in NFL history. We didn’t know if there would even be a season, and here we are talking about week 17 and looking forward to the playoffs. We are fortunate to have this wonderful distraction in life, as I’m sure it’s helped us all get through difficult times.
What does 2021 have in store for us? Who are some names to watch? Who should we buy low and sell high before the rest of the league catches on? Let’s discuss these items and more in the final Sunday Six Pack of 2020!
1. James Robinson is a stud
Robinson had one of the most impressive rookie seasons I’ve ever seen in my history as a football fan, a span that stretches well into the 1980s. We have an undrafted rookie running back who unseated a consummate pro in such a convincing fashion, that the team felt confident enough they could release Leonard Fournette before the season even started.
Robinson currently ranks third in rushing yards with 1,070 despite missing his week 16 contest, amassing over 250 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR leagues. He accomplished this feat on the worst team in football, one that was forced to rely on a trio of quarterbacks that never lived up to expectations. As a result, opposing defenses knew they had to focus on stopping Robinson and they still couldn’t do it.
Using quick decision-making to find cut-back lanes is a process that takes time for most rookies, and some never develop those skills at all. Robinson was NFL-ready on day one.
Below is a clip showing him slicing his way through the line with perfection on just his first NFL carry, then running around a linebacker on his way to an eight-yard pickup.
He can keep his hips low, make the smallest moves to make defenders miss, and he does it all while he keeps his hips pointed downfield.
https://imgur.com/LjqqkSn
He can catch out of the backfield and power his way out of tackles. He has excellent body control and a high motor to gain yards in open space.
https://imgur.com/oosbnhD
I am a huge Robinson fan, as I think he’ll improve with a competent quarterback leading the way next season. Feel confident that if you give up your mid-late first-round pick to acquire him, know that you will have a dependable player capable of putting up solid numbers every week. Robinson is a solid buy-low in every format.
2. Risk/Reward with AJ Dillon
I drafted Dillon in every league I could last year knowing full well that the investment probably wouldn’t pay off until the following season. Since we had a healthy Aaron Jones, we hardly got to see Dillon take the field all season long.
That is until last week versus the Tennessee Titans, where he rushed for 124 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps the comparison is easy because of his size and speed — and perhaps also because he was on the opposing sideline — but Dillon reminds me a lot of Derrick Henry.
Dillin is massive at nearly 250 pounds but runs a quick 4.5-second 40-yard dash. That’s unheard of for a player of his size. The game versus Tennessee provided proof of his tremendous power and breakaway speed, and I think most of America missed it, so he’s still a well-kept secret.
Consider that Jones is on the last year of his rookie deal, and that the Packers and perhaps the NFL in general hates spending money on running backs, and I think we’re collectively looking at the new starter in the Packers’ backfield in 2021.
If you own Dillon, then hang onto him with a firm grip and don’t be tempted to let go. If you do not own him, I think it would be wise to throw a second-round pick out there just to see who is impatient. The risk is that the Packers re-sign Jones to a long-term deal, but I think the signs point at something different. Make the move, you’ll be glad you did.
(Stat below using DLF’s ADP over time app.)
3. Buy Dak Prescott
In 2018, Prescott averaged 18 points per game. In 2019, he averaged 22 points per game. In 2020 through his first four starts, he was averaging over 30 points per game, which was leading the league before his unfortunate injury.
The Cowboys have done nothing to improve their defense, and instead chose to rely on elite offense to carry the team. Even Andy Dalton has been top 12 at his position over the last six weeks of the season, and we all know Dalton is nowhere near a starting-caliber NFL quarterback.
I think more of the same will be in store for 2021, and Dak will have had plenty of time to heal himself to prepare for the season. CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Shultz will have another year of experience, and both Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper should be returning as well. Given his value versus the competition, anyone who owns an upper-tier QB might be wise to give a look at a downgrade for Prescott.
(Chart below made using DLF’s Ranks-Over-Time App.)
4. Good value with Nyheim Hines
I think we all know that Philip Rivers doesn’t throw the ball downfield as effectively as other quarterbacks. As a result, he’s helped make several careers for smaller running backs, such as Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead, and Austin Ekeler.
Enter Nyheim Hines, who is the smaller backup to starting tailback Jonathan Taylor. Hines will never generate elite numbers, but his value versus his ADP is insanely good. He ranks as the 53rd running back taken in startups, yet has produced 23rd at his position in points per game.
Hines can be had for pennies on the dollar as the often forgotten backup with Indianapolis, but will come in very handy when covering injuries, bye weeks, and will be a prime starter on days that Taylor may miss.
I do not think his value will be tied to the career of Rivers, since all three running backs mentioned earlier went on to produce after their departure from him. I think the acquisition of Hines will be helpful for the next handful of seasons in which he is on your roster.
Below are some trades involving Hines using DLF’s Trade Finder, showing that he can be had for just pennies on the dollar.
5. Sell Deebo Samuel
This hurts me as a huge 49er fan, but I think selling Samuel would be a wise choice for all fantasy owners. He fits the mold as to what Kyle Shanahan is looking for — a big-bodied wide receiver capable of getting yards after the catch and running sweeps — but Samuel’s body does not have the ability to absorb the hits that are required for his position.
Samuel has been in the league for only two years and has already missed seven total games due to three separate injuries. That means he’s been useful only 78% of the time, and that’s likely to decrease as his body takes more abuse.
Let’s also not forget the emergence of Brandon Aiyuk who is taking the league by storm and is doing everything Samuel did, but better. He’s faster and more athletic, and is so far more reliable than any other pass-catcher on the team.
Samuel is currently worth a first-round pick, and I’d probably go ahead and make that trade if one was available. He has the skills, but trying to rely on an oft-injured wide receiver is not fun. If he gets one more injury next season, he will be viewed as injury-prone and his value will tank. Best to get out now while the getting is good.
6. Pay up for Travis Kelce
Part of this is Patrick Mahomes, but the other part is just how much more Kelce dominates the league than other tight ends. He’s missed zero games in his career so he’s reliable, and he’s consistently the leader among tight ends each and every season. The last time he didn’t lead his position in fantasy points was in 2015. How come nobody talks about that amazing statistic!?
Kelce will be 32 next season and owners might be afraid to lose value and unload now, but tight ends have a considerably longer career than most players. Consider the career of Tony Gonzalez, who was an elite player up until he retired at the age of 37.
I believe Kelce to be equal to or greater than the talent of Gonzalez, so acquiring Kelce now could give you a top-tier player for another five or six years, which is an entire career for most players in the NFL.
Which of the following players below can you rely on week after week, year after year? I’ve rather have Kelce than all of them, and that goes even more for PPR and TE premium leagues. Go ahead and pull the trigger, you’ll be glad you did.
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