Vacated Situations in 2020

Peter Howard

While researching my “vacated targets” article, I ended up digging into specific situations facing the 2020 season. The article was already too long and heavy so I took them out of the final edit. However, I think it might help take the research out of the realm of generic “theory” and put some more actionable opinions behind my research.

So, here are a couple of those situations broken down through historical examples. These are my takes on what will “probably” be the result of changing depth charts for some interesting players in 2020.

What will happen to DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona?

Something that might have slipped your notice, because it slipped mine, is that Odell Beckham’s targets increased in 2019 after moving from the Giants to the Browns. His target percentage decreased while remaining in the top ten in the NFL last year, and his production was down. But his role and ability to create opportunity remained.

Since 2007, 44 wide receivers who were the team’s top-scoring players at the position have switched teams the next season. On average they have dropped to 20 fewer targets, barely 0.8 targets a game and less than three percent target share per game. The most notable change is in their percentage, or “share” of the offense, not their overall volume.

To be clear, however, these averages are for a list as diverse as Odell Beckham leaving the Giants in 2018 to Dorial Green-Beckham leaving Tennessee in 2015. On the other hand, when I adjusted for age, target share or PPR rank, I find these averages remarkably consistent.

We already feel those wide receivers who change teams typically “struggle” their first year in a new offense. But our expectation for their role on the team should not fall too far.

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We might be tempted to notice that the numbers improve if you remove Jeremy Kerley – no one’s idea of a true wide receiver one – Kenny Britt (coming off his one 1,000-yard season after seven straight years of disappointment) and Jordan Matthews (in an injury-ridden season where he was still the best wide receiver on a struggling team when he was able to play). But, at the same time, notice that doing so would have helped us miss the potential of Robert Woods in 2017. Sometimes it’s okay to just take the average and accept there is variance.

So, what should we expect for DeAndre Hopkins going to Arizona in 2020? Overall, he’ll likely see a drop in his overall numbers and efficiency. He had ten targets per game and a target share per game of 32% in 2019 so his most likely range falls between nine targets per game and somewhere between 24-28% target shares. (I know that’s a wide range, but remember target share is the most volatile.) For context, players above nine targets a game in 2020 (other than Hopkins) were Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and Julian Edelman (also, interestingly, Zach Ertz). This is a nice list to be on. Unfortunately, it also places his range of outcomes from top five to top 15 or so.

We should expect Hopkins to remain the leading receiver in volume on his new team. From there, our attention should shift to our understanding of how successful the team can be with a brand new WR1. Depending on his red-zone usage and success, he could still be a top-five wide receiver in 2020, but he does have a lower floor then if he’d stayed in Houston.

In dynasty, however, age unfortunately moves a lot of needles, and he’ll be 29 in 2021. If he experiences a slightly down year and gets anything like the Odell Beckham treatment in value, he’ll be a much better buy this time next year than right now, when he’s still being ranked as a top-six wide receiver and 19th pick off the board according to DLF ADP.

What will happen to Keke Coutee and Anthony Miller?

Of our 44 examples since 2007 (top-scoring wide receivers who switched teams and played eight games in both years), 31 of the WR2s remained on the same team the next year. They averaged -1.03 fewer targets, for 0.3% more target share. In other words, their roles remained similar to the year before, but their targets dropped significantly. They didn’t increase *on average*.

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Now a lot of this, it could be argued, is about “role.” For example, or course Willie Snead doesn’t “pick up” John Brown targets. But also notice Michael Gallup’s increase (in 2019) after the loss of Cole Beasley. I don’t think we can argue that if targets work this way (they don’t) that Gallup and his 13.05 career aDot was “picking up” Beasley’s 6.18 career aDot targets – anymore than Snead wasn’t “picking up” Brown’s targets.

In short, the further we break this down, the better idea we have of what’s happening (i.e “John Brown had x number of slot targets, Michael Gallup had x number of 6.1 aDot targets”) but the further away we get from anything that helps understand a completely different situation. So, the best I can say is that the average is fair, and the specifics of the players involved matter.

A player who remains on the team after a team’s leading wide receiver leaves should maintain their role, which may decrease slightly in raw stats based on a wider spread (or, potentially, the team being less effective having lost a good player). We can expect some players to increase in volume, but I think that increase is based on the player, not the loss of the number one who left.

I can’t find a reason to like a player in 2020 *just* because the WR1 left, unless they have shown something to indicate their ability to take over the depth chart, or command targets themselves.

To frame this in terms of player decisions for 2020, let’s consider Anthony Miller or Keke Coutee. Coutee now has the “vacuum” left behind by Hopkins around him (supposedly) and Miller, while not losing the team’s WR1, did see tight end Trey Burton leave and several depth wide receivers added like Ted Ginn and Trevor Davis.

But has either demonstrated an ability to earn a more relevant role in their offenses? To be clear, this is where we get back to my opinion, and you may just like either player more or less than me – this is not clear or “obvious.”

Of the two, it’s clear to me that while neither has benefited from strong draft capital, Miller is the one who has earned a significantly larger role in his offense. He has produced above ten percent target share both seasons, even as a rookie, which, is above the threshold where even first-round wide receiver becomes more likely to break out. He expanded this role in 2019 as a sophomore

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So, ultimately, I am more interested in a player who has Allen Robinson placed firmly ahead of him on the depth chart, than Coutee who just had a huge “vacuum” of targets emerge on his depth chart. Go figure.

But to be clear, this isn’t a fair value discussion. No one has to choose between these two players, it’s just an illustration of how our understanding of vacated targets can play into our interpretation of situations. It turns out, using DLF’s new ADP comparison tool, that dynasty value agrees Miller is more valuable than Coutee – or Kenny Stills on the same depth chart. If anything, Miller looks a little high to me. However Will Fuller, the addition of Brandin Cooks, and the presence of Kenny Stills likely affect the overall ADP picture.

(FYI, I think a healthy Fuller is the best upside bet on the board at the wide receiver position this year, while I’m talking Houston receivers.)

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Miller had off-season surgery, which is something we’ll have to pay attention to and ask some questions to people who know about doctor-type stuff about. However, outside the top 130 picks, I think he makes a potentially enticing player with upside, compared to a player who hasn’t shown an ability to earn a significant role, even if he does have a “vacuum” of targets based on player movement.

Thanks for checking this article out. You can ask, argue and debate me on it anytime on Twitter (@pahowdy) or in the comments section below.

peter howard
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