2020 NFL Projections: Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers
In this series, we will be covering each team’s projections for the upcoming 2020 season. We will look at each position and briefly break them down then dive deeper into one situation that’s a bit more interesting to look at. Follow along as we go through all 32 teams, two at a time.
READ: Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams | Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers | New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants | Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans
I hope you enjoy this series and find it helpful and informative. Here we go!
Baltimore Ravens
2019 was magical for the Baltimore Ravens until the very end. Their second-year quarterback was the league MVP, running backs were highly effective and efficient, and receiving options all benefited from their quarterbacks unsustainable TD rate (9.0%).
Lamar Jackson was a league-winner after being drafted very late in redraft, if at all depending on the format you played in. Jackson ran for 1,000 yards and passed for over 3,000 yards, becoming the first player to do so. He also led the league touchdown passes (36) and threw just six interceptions while improving his completion percentage by 7.9% from his rookie year.
Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards both averaged >=5.0 yards per attempt and combined for 1,729 yards rushing and 12 TDs. Add in Jackson’s 1,206 yards and seven TDs and this running game proved pretty unstoppable. It was mentioned above that the receiving options benefited from an unsustainable TD rate from Jackson. They had four receivers/tight ends finish in the top 20 (20 target minimum) in TD rate.
When we increase the threshold to >=70 targets, Baltimore has two of the top three in the league with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. They were efficient at every level of the offense but as we often find out, expecting the same magic twice will leave you wanting in the end. How does 2020 look?
Lamar Jackson’s rise over the past year was meteoric as we look at his DLF ADP.
Now the third-year quarterback is either the QB1 or QB2 for pretty much everyone and you will not get the same kind of value from him based on ADP even if he were to somehow outperform 2019. At the same time though, you know that you have one of the safest floors at the position to go along with one of the highest ceilings. Just remember that this year, you are giving up a very good RB/WR potentially. I have Jackson projected to repeat his accomplishment of 1,000 rushing and 3,000 passing yards but he should regress back to the mean somewhat.
Baltimore was very effective with their RBs as we talked briefly above but they still felt something was missing and drafted JK Dobbins in the back half of the second round. Dobbins did not run at the combine but as you probably have heard, he ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the Ohio State combine. It is hard to live up to the expectation of a school legend like Ezekiel Elliott but Dobbins was able to do just that. They graded very closely in my Running Back Prospect Comparison model and Dobbins joins two other big name 2020 draftees inside the top-12 since 2005.
Here is a Twitter thread on Dobbins using this model.
Ingram has been a steady RB2 type fantasy asset for years and he has that kind of potential again in 2020. I do have Dobbins projected for more rushing volume but it will likely take time. Neither projects for very much receiving volume because Jackson will tend to run rather than dump it down to a back. Running back is generally the easiest of the skill positions to transfer from the college game to the pro but Dobbins will have an advantage coming from a school that ran a lot of run-pass option (RPO) which is a big time part of what the Ravens do.
The passing game will almost certainly see an efficiency drop but an increase in volume potentially as well. It will be hard for anyone to duplicate what Jackson did but the threat of the run with this team could really do a good job at keeping defenders up in the box. Jackson led the league in yards per carry and both Ingram and Edwards were among the league leaders. Passing plays have been proven to have a higher EPA (Expected Point Added) which is a measure of the value/impact a certain play has on the score of a game.With the Ravens being so effective in 2019, they were happy to work down the field on the ground if a team allowed them to and when those openings came, open receivers often in one-on-one situations were able to have big impacts.
Jackson has a projected 6.6% TD rate based on the above sheet which is a significant drop, but, still very efficient. The receivers are going to be limited in volume but should be presented with opportunities to make plays again. Marquise Brown is projected to lead the wide receivers in targets again this season with an increase in receptions and yards but again, a decrease in efficiency. Brown caught a TD every 10.1 targets in 2019. The only wide receiver with a higher TD rate on their targets (>=70 targets) was Detroit’s Marvin Jones. Only Brown’s teammate, Andrews, was higher among the WRs and TEs.
Miles Boykin, Willie Snead, Devin Duvernay, Chris Moore, and James Proche will compete for the rest but for fantasy purposes, it is Brown and Andrews. Andrews is one of six tight ends since 1994 to put up a season with…
- >=80 targets
- >=60% catch rate
- >=10% TD rate
- >=50% of his targets finishing in a positive result (1D or TD)
- <50% of his targets finishing in a negative result (Fumble or Incomplete pass)
- By age 25 season
He is one of just three to do it by age 23. I do not have Andrews seeing a volume increase as my projections are accounting for players being healthy. We are not predicting injury. He will have a fantastic season though and is projected easily in the top five for 2020.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers were dealt a tough hand in 2019. They lost their franchise quarterback before the end of the second game against the Seattle Seahawks. None of the running backs on the team were able to stay active for the full season.
Their leading receiver suffered the most and played in just 12 games himself. Two other receivers were able to show a little of what they were capable of with some shoddy quarterback play following Ben Roethlisberger going down which does give something positive to take away from the 2019 passing game.
Vance McDonald was supposed to provide some tight end production for our fantasy teams but the awe-inspiring trucking he applied to a defensive back in 2018 might have been the best we will see from the seven-year TE. His career yards-per-reception average was essentially halved in 2019. Needless to say, it was far from expectation.
How does it look heading into 2020 though? The starting QB is back, running backs should be healthy, and receiving corps is at full strength.
The last time we saw Roethlisberger in a full season, he was throwing it 675 times for over 5,100 yards and 34 touchdowns. The safe bet is not on that kind of volume again coming off a season in which he spent 14 games on injured reserve. I do have his volume coming down considerably but Big Ben will still drop back around 600 times. The floor is decently high based on the potential for volume but that is the only thing keeping it there. Roethlisberger is not going to run very much and even if he did, there would not be a lot of value coming from it. In a 1QB format, he will be a solid streaming option at the least, with upside in the range of a low-end QB1.
The running game is going to be all about James Conner as long as he can stay healthy. Conner has continually battled injury throughout his career in the pros so staying healthy is definitely not a given. The Steelers will likely spread the workload around to keep players fresh but this is not a situation in which we should expect a second back to have any value while Conner is available. Benny Snell looks to be the primary backup for the job and the only rumors surrounding Jaylen Samuels have been about whether or not he will even make the roster. Anthony McFarland has not really provided any buzz out of camp. That can either be good or bad so we will have to just wait and see.
What about the receivers?
Above we see the DLF ADPs for the three main receiving options. Most would agree that the clear number-one option on the team is JuJu Smith-Schuster. Some would disagree based on the fact that he was not the most targeted receiver last season -a season without the starting quarterback and also full of injury that cost Smith-Schuster four games. He finished third on the team in targets after finishing second in 2018 with 166 (behind only Antonio Brown’s 168). The team lead in 2019 was just 92. This is due in large to the QBs who were throwing the ball to these three.
Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges were never going to bring out the upside in this offense. Neither James Washington or Diontae Johnson are the level of receiver Antonio Brown was and in the first two weeks of 2019, JuJu saw eight targets in each game while no other receiver saw more than 11. Johnson and Washington saw nine targets apiece. Look for JuJu to slide comfortably back into the top role and post a very nice breakout season. This may be your last chance to get him at a discounted price.
Both Johnson and Washington were able to step up in 2019 though and both posted quality seasons for receivers of their age. I have them posting similar volume in 2020 to last year but Johnson as the more reliable fantasy asset. Chase Claypool could see some fantasy relevance but Pittsburgh receivers often take a year or two to really hit if they do. We have seen our share of Martavis Bryants come through this offense and the best you can hope for is some best-ball weeks. Smith-Schuster was able to have a big end to his rookie campaign but he exploded in year two. With there being three receivers who have all shown to be somewhat reliable and the tricky off-season on top of everything else, Claypool’s impact may be minimal for a while.
Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald will share the TE duties in 2020 but look for Ebron to be the far more relevant fantasy option. As mentioned above, we were excited about McDonald before the 2019 season. That clearly did not pan out. Now we have a new body in the room and one who is rarely if ever referred to based on his blocking skills. It is Ebron’s ability to score touchdowns that has kept him as a draftable TE option.
We may forget because of his down year in 2019, Ebron scored 13 TDs in 2018 with his starting QB. Naturally, a year like that will regress a bit but then add in the backup quarterback taking all the snaps as opposed to Andrew Luck… It is going to have an effect. Last season, Pittsburgh dealt with similar circumstances. Big Ben missed most of the year while Luck missed the entire year, but Roethlisberger is going to be back and has shown the ability to support low-end TE1 production in the past. Pittsburgh paid Ebron $12 million over two seasons to play knowing the injury history and the fact he finished 2019 on injured reserve. Maybe they have a bit more of a plan for him than we think.
Thank you for another one of my projection articles. Stay tuned for more and follow me on Twitter (@willson8tor).
