IDP Dynasty Waiver Wire: Week Four
I’m not going to lie, the week three edition of this article has perhaps been our most successful to date. From Mike Hilton to Kerry Hyder to Khari Willis, our select group was on it first While I also feel good about my recommendations for this week below, I also am not conceited enough to think my article has any impact whatsoever on IDP ownership percentages. If any names from my week three article are still available in your league, scoop them up!
Just because they are not featured again does not mean I do not think they are still viable IDP assets – I am just trying to dig deep and provide as many rising IDP values as I can possibly find for all of you kind enough to read my work. Thank you for your support.
The gist of this column is simple: finding guys that are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 2 Hits, 5 Average, 2 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 4 Hits, 2 Average, 2 Busts (Niemann pending MNF)
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week three Observations
- Krys Barnes did well coming in for Christian Kirksey last night. We’ve been aware of his potential as an IDP stud, but knew something would need to happen to drastically increase his snap share for that to be the case. This may very well be the chance he is looking for.
- Vernon Hargreaves III may be a valuable IDP asset for the same reason he held value during his stint with Tampa Bay – he simply gives up so many receptions. You don’t always have to be the most skilled player to be worth something in IDP, and Hargreaves may be the perfect example of that in 2020.
- When Jordan Fuller got injured against the Bills, Taylor Rapp seized the opportunity, bouncing back with seven total tackles. This situation certainly became a lot murkier, leaving John Johnson III as the only safety I’m comfortable starting on the Rams as of now.
- I am officially concerned about Clelin Ferrell’s long-term chances as a viable pass rusher. The Raiders pressure at a very low rate, and when they do, Maxx Crosby seems to always be the one that actually causes the disruption. It’s too early to sell Ferrell if you drafted him last year, but the stock is plummeting.
- Dion Jordan is a worthy add as a member of a productive 49ers’ pass rush unit, but Kerry Hyder is still the priority add along that front (shout-out YOU for reading my article last week!)
- Logan Wilson had a nice interception yesterday, but is not playing anywhere near enough snaps to be considered as a starter yet. Even worse, the complement of snaps given to Wilson and fellow rookie Davis-Gaither take away from Josh Bynes’ and Germaine Pratt’s overall ceilings, rendering all four of them outside of the top 20-25 linebacker options (great call on this last week, Tom Kislingbury).
- If Budda Baker is out one game to get a minor surgery, the safety you’d want in his absence is Deionte Thompson; however, I don’t think anyone could just come in and do exactly what Budda Baker does on a football field.
- I’m also out on Darian Thompson in Dallas. What was a promising season debut in week one has quickly gone sour, accruing only four tackles in a game which Russell Wilson threw the ball 40 times.
- Fifth-round pick Alton Robinson had a nice sack in his debut for the Seahawks, breathing life into a hapless Seattle pass-rushing unit. He’s an intriguing name to file away for the future, especially with the other veterans in Seattle not doing anything to deserve extra reps on the field in his place.
- If Taylor Lewan is out next week, I’m scared for Ryan Tannehill’s life against the Steelers next week. They have 39 quarterback hits through three weeks – an unbelievably dominant group.
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Ryan Kerrigan, DE WAS (Disruption Score: 33.18)
Saquon Barkley (2018), Nick Bosa (2019), and now Chase Young (2020)?? The curse of the number two draft pick has been way too real to start the season. While nothing is confirmed about the extent of Young’s groin injury, the loss of him and teammate Matt Ioannidis in the same game is a major hit to Washington’s defensive line, no matter how deep that position is for them.
Thankfully, this extra depth acquired by Jack Del Rio allowed Ryan Kerrigan and Montez Sweat to slide right in and not miss a beat. Kerrigan has the most to gain if Young or Ioannidis are to miss time after playing 22% of the snaps in week one and 30% of the snaps in week two. Kerrigan racked up two sacks against the Eagles in his limited role in week one, leaving Kerrigan as the number one priority add along the defensive line should Chase Young miss extended time against Baltimore next Sunday.
Romeo Okwara, DE DET (Disruption Score: 40.38)
While Trey Flowers is the stud who garners the most attention among Detroit’s “pass rushers” (if we are being EXTREMELY generous with that term…), but Okwara has outproduced him comfortably over the past two weeks. I’d still look to other players listed in my week three column first before investing in a Lions defensive lineman, but Okwara has posted six tackles and a sack with tough matchups against Green Bay and Arizona, with a bit softer matchup against New Orleans coming next week and is worthy of a stash if you have room.
Emmanuel Ogbah, DE MIA (Disruption Score: 29.69)
As of three years ago, Ogbah was being priced as a top 10-15 defensive end in dynasty IDP leagues. Now, there is a good chance he is on your league’s waiver wire. Ogbah has not produced any stellar game totals as of yet, but his Disruption Score suggests he is a candidate primed to break out soon. His teammates along the defensive line pose virtually no threat to steal sack opportunities away from him, and in case a league mate does still have Ogbah rostered, there is a great chance they will be pumped to get any sort of value out of him via a trade. Here is a chance to buy low on a guy with extreme potential, on an extremely cheap price tag.
Linebacker
Mykal Walker, LB ATL (Disruption Score: 21.35)
Talk about breaking out on your debut as a starter! Takkarist McKinley and Foyesade Oluokun were both out due to injury, but fourth-round pick Walker proved he didn’t need a training camp to be ready to contribute on a professional level.
Walker posted eight total tackles (six solo) as well as a quarterback hit against the Mitchell Trubisky/Nick Foles combo, tying Keanu Neal for the team lead in total tackles. Walker even had a limited role in the first two weeks of the season despite Oluokun being healthy. This is a buzzworthy name to try to acquire as a long-term investment, as this position in Atlanta’s defense has historically been an IDP goldmine.
Defensive Back
Jalen Mills, SS PHI (Disruption Score: 23.10)
The days of starting Mills simply because he was getting torched as a cornerback ended last year, and I thought his IDP value may have also left with it. Thankfully, I couldn’t have been more wrong! For all of the things that are so wrong with the Eagles right now, Jim Schwartz’s transformation of Mills from a bottom-tier cornerback to a disruptive strong safety deserves a ton of praise.
Mills is on pace for the most tackles in a season in his career, while also accumulating 1.5 sacks and three quarterback hits in the process. His presence in the box has helped compensate for their injuries along the defensive line, and if he keeps this level of production up, Mills could be a weekly starter in the strong safety position.
Julian Love, FS NYG (Disruption Score: 10.22)
In leagues that start free safeties specifically, Love is now an automatic add. Love drew praise from the folks over at PFF last season, as they ranked him as the 13th-best rookie during the 2019-20 season. After a relatively slow start, Love exploded onto the scene against the 49ers with 11(!) total tackles, 10 of them solo tackles. This led the team in total tackles and was more than twice as many solo tackles as anyone else on either team. Logan Ryan was expected to be the only defensive back in New York with significant IDP value, but Love is an immediate stash (and probable starter) going forward.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Montez Sweat, DE WAS (Week Four, vs. Baltimore)
While Ryan Kerrigan is already mentioned as having the most to gain if Chase Young or Matt Ioannidis are to miss extended time, Sweat would also be in line for roughly 15-20 more snaps against a Ravens team that has surrendered six sacks through their first two games. Washington’s depleted line would still be among the most stout defensive lines Baltimore is yet to face, leaving the opportunity for Sweat to post a few tackles and even get back to Lamar Jackson once or twice over the course of the game.
Jordan Phillips, DE ARI (Week Four, @ Carolina)
Carolina is in the middle of a complete overhaul in just about every position imaginable, which is not a great combination when you have a quarterback with an injury history like Teddy Bridgewater’s. He has been sacked eight times through three games, and Phillips is coming off of a second straight game with a sack. I still prefer the likes of Zach Allen to Phillips on the Cardinals’ defensive line alone, but if your league-mate reads my work and already ensured that Allen is not available, Phillips isn’t a bad plug-and-play option if you’re desperate next week.
Linebacker
Eric Wilson or Todd Davis, LB MIN (Week Four, @ Houston)
I was hoping to see Davis make his debut for the Vikings yesterday against the Titans, but it was unlikely to see him in a full snap rotation on such short turnaround from his signing with the team. Wilson’s stats didn’t pop this week with only four total tackles and a majority of the opportunities, but that was primarily due to their opponent’s offensive game plan.
I expect Wilson to bounce back against a Texans team that was tackled by linebackers on 33% of their plays in week three, but if I’m adding him to my roster, I’m adding Davis as well. One of the two should return solid value, but it is yet to be determined who will stand out above the other. I listed the two in order of my personal preference should only one roster spot be available.
Kamu Grugier-Hill, LB MIA (Week Four, vs. Seattle)
*WARNING* I am aware Grugier-Hill played only 20 defensive snaps and 15 special teams snaps, and am not saying he needs to be a starter in week four against the Seahawks. What I am saying, however, is that his ability to post eight tackles in his extremely limited role is quite impressive, and he certainly looked like a professional linebacker in the 20 snaps he was afforded against the Jaguars last week.
I am undecided on whether or not this would be a position actually worth investing in long-term, but what Grugier-Hill did last week certainly has me paying attention, and if he posts similar numbers this upcoming week, I will be looking to make moves to acquire him as a stash. For now, the volume simply isn’t there for him to be worth a roster spot.
Defensive Backs
Brian Poole, CB NYJ (Week Four, vs. Denver)
Denver has given up a whopping 29(!!) quarterback hits in their last two matchups with Jeff Driskel leading the way. Granted, these pressures came courtesy of arguably the two most aggressive pass-rushing teams in the league, but this still shows a very exploitable weakness for the Jets to try to take advantage of heading into a short week.
Poole has a comfortably high tackle floor already, as well as the ability to rack up a sack among the Jets’ defensive backs (not to mention the interception potential against a back-up quarterback thrown into a terrible situation without his top receiving threat). This combination of factors as well as the tendency for Thursday night games to be especially sloppy, Poole is one of my favorite starts of the week among defensive backs, regardless of whether or not you play in IDP leagues that play cornerbacks specifically.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
