Cornerstone Report: Week Two
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class. It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.
Last week’s column, featuring Miami (FL)’s Cam’Ron Harris, a trio of Texas Longhorns and JK Dobbins can be found here.
NCAA WEEK Three
Chuba Hubbard, RB Oklahoma State
Hubbard compiled a 27-93-1 rushing line with two receptions for -1 yard as the 11th ranked Cowboys struggled in their season opener against Tulsa. OSU managed just 279 yards of total offense (4.0 yards per play) in an ugly 17-6 win, but a poor opener is unsurprising following such an irregular off-season. Additionally, starting quarterback Spencer Sanders left the game due to an ankle injury after one series. His replacements managed just 115 passing yards on 18 attempts. Without having to respect the passing game, Tulsa was able to key on the run, which OSU emphasized to the tune of a 50:20 rush to pass ratio.
Sanders is not expected to miss significant time, and Hubbard should get on track. Recall he led the nation in rushing yards in 2019 before choosing to return to Stillwater instead of entering the NFL.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
He is a big-play threat with elite speed. His high school 100-meter dash time of 10.55 seconds was faster than that of this year’s 12th overall pick Henry Ruggs. Expect to see more games like this as the season progresses:
At 6’1” and 207 pounds, concerns about his size can be alleviated with five or ten more pounds.
The DLF Devy team is not concerned about last week’s performance. Hubbard comes in fifth overall in the DLF Devy Rankings, projecting as the 1.05 rookie in 1QB leagues. This places him as RB2 in the class (Travis Etienne as RB1) between Purdue wide receiver Rondale Moore and Alabama running back Najee Harris.
The DLF Cornerstone Rankings combine first and second-year NFL players with players eligible for next year’s rookie draft. He ranks 20th between wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Justin Jefferson. I rank him slightly lower than consensus, at 25th.
His DLF Devy ADP of 1.05 is in line with the DLF Rankings.
Tylan Wallace, WR Oklahoma State
We stay in Stillwater to discuss another exciting prospect. Despite OSU’s run-heavy approach and reliance on backup quarterbacks, Wallace produced a 4-94-0 receiving line, highlighted by this catch.
Tylan Wallace, still good
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 19, 2020
This clip encapsulates Wallace’s style. At 6’0” and 185 pounds, he is neither a jitterbug nor a physical specimen. But he plays tough for his size. Most importantly, Wallace looks healthy after tearing his ACL last October. The injury influenced his decision to return to school for the 2020 season despite being draft eligible.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
This play from 2019 shows a bit of nearly everything.
Tylan Wallace went beast mode on this run 😤 https://t.co/rKGZ5kbW6j
— Footballism (@FootbaIIism) January 28, 2020
Wallace is 16th among 2021 rookies in the latest DLF Devy ADP data, suggesting it will take an early second-round rookie pick to acquire him. Our devy rankings like him a bit more with a rank of 14th overall as the 13th prospect in 2021, between Penn State running back Journey Brown and Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Finally, Wallace is 58th in the Cornerstone Rankings between Steelers rookie wide receiver Chase Claypool and Clemson wide receiver Justyn Ross.
NFL WEEK Two
Joe Burrow, QB CIN
It has not taken long for the first overall pick to meet expectations. A week two prime time game in which he attempted 61 passes and threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns did the trick.
This comes after an NFL debut in which he reminded us he is more than a pocket passer.
Bengals take a 7-0 on Joe Burrow's 23-yard TD run!! pic.twitter.com/gdjztHtIaJ
— Grumpy Middle-aged Sports Fan (Josh Kirkendall) (@Josh_Kirkendall) September 13, 2020
Burrow is already a viable starter even in superflex and 2QB leagues. He is on track to attempt more passes in a single season than any quarterback in NFL history (post-merger).
Thru 12 games in ‘19, A Dalton was on pace for the eighth most pass att in a season post-merger (666).
J Burrow’s two game pace (776) won’t continue but a top-half finish wouldn’t surprise. pic.twitter.com/7fToKidLV7
— Frank Gruber (@threedownhack) September 18, 2020
To what extent is this unsustainable passing volume a cause for concern?
Very little. Advanced passing statistics suggest he is already performing near or above league averages. The following numbers are indexed to an average rating of 100. Above it is better than average; below it worse. He is already very good at limiting interceptions and sacks, and near average with completion percentage and overall efficiency.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
All just two starts into his NFL career.
In the DLF Dynasty QB Rankings, Burrow is ninth between Carson Wentz and Tua Tagovailoa. His overall dynasty rank of 101 puts him between Mark Ingram and Darrell Henderson in 1QB leagues, while in the DLF SF/2QB Rankings he is 26th overall between Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper.
September DLF Superflex ADP has Burrow at 29th overall and just outside the top 100 in 1QB startup ADP. These values have roughly remained steady since the NFL draft, as shown by our ADP Over Time tool.
The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer determines asset values using an algorithm combining ADP, rankings data and actual trades pulled from MyFantasyLeague (MFL). It values him in line with a late 2021 first or early 2021 second-round rookie pick in the 1QB format. In 2QB/Superflex leagues, it takes two future firsts plus a bit more to get him.
Finally, our Trade Finder gives visibility to trades across the MFL platform. Recent real-world trades involving Burrow include the following:
- 9-22-20: Joe Burrow for Year 2021 round one draft pick (1QB league)
- 9-22-20: Joe Burrow for RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Superflex)
- 9-16-20: Joe Burrow for QB Aaron Rodgers, GB and Year 2022 round one draft pick (Superflex)
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
