Tuesday Transactions: Week Three
Reality has set in. No preseason. Limited training camp. Week two of the NFL season was brutal for attrition and injuries. Dynasty owners are looking for answers and wondering what the future of their squads will look like after the dust settles. Here are five transactions to plant your flag on after week two.
Courtland Sutton, WR DEN – Sell
After adjusting to the news that Sutton (WR21) will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL, owners are looking for answers. If you are not a Sutton owner and not a true contender, asking a Sutton owner what the purchase price might be could be appealing. Either way, let us be realistic about what Courtland Sutton is.
First off, he is 24 years old and will turn 25 before the season ends and he will not score another point in 2020. Relative to his peers, Sutton is not a young buck. Secondly, the Broncos drafted Jerry Jeudy (WR25), who is three years his junior and will likely be more valuable by the end of the season. Finally, there is an extreme saturation at wide receiver and valuing one over another in this range is giving away free points.
The Move – Look to move Sutton for any receiver in the top 36 in dynasty ADP and target either the production bump (Tyler Lockett, Robert Woods or Stefon Diggs) or the age bump (Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Reagor or Henry Ruggs). Regardless, pivot off Sutton for anyone in the WR3 range and move on. You can acquire Sutton in a year before the 2021 season, assuming he makes a full recovery.
Nick Mullens, QB SF – Buy and Sell
It seems like ages ago when Mullens started eight games for San Francisco and posted a respectable 13 touchdown and 2,277-yard campaign. After all, Jimmy Garoppolo returned last season and led the team to the Super Bowl, while Mullens was relegated back to the bench. He received some buzz as a priority handcuff but with the starter going down, opportunity knocks for at least the next month.
Although he lacks pedigree (undrafted free agent in 2017), we have seen in the past (with Mullens and others) that any Kyle Shanahan quarterback can produce fantasy points. There are also rumbling that others in the NFL see the former Tulane gunslinger as a potential starter and this could be a prime audition for a 2021 gig.
The Move – The Garoppolo owner should be willing to pay a third-round pick plus a throw-in player in a 12-team superflex league. Paying a second is likely assuming too much risk for the same situation and likely best used elsewhere. A non-Jimmy G owner who was stashing Mullens should not sell for less than a second-round pick and should be aggressive in trying to sell to the Garoppolo owner.
Drew Sample, TE CIN – Buy
I know, this one seems to be a common narrative and I can understand why it is seen as a very reactionary move. To be fair, value moves due to attrition is very fair and, in this case, waiting to see it before buying is not a lost cause. Sample was targeted nine times and hauled in seven after CJ Uzomah left with a season-ending injury and with a barren depth chart, appears to be one of Joe Burrow’s favorite targets.
A second-round pick in 2019, many criticized Cincinnati’s selection of Sample and wrote him off as a blocker only. Logging only two games with ten targets last season did not help his cause and made him nearly free in even deeper tight end premium leagues. This is the classic moment where those stashing him will think they are making a profit, but expect Sample to continue to be targeted and most importantly, be on the field a significant amount of time for the rest of the season.
The Move – The comparison to Tyler Higbee has been thrown out there and although he had a more impressive collegiate receiving profile, neither entered the NFL with the pass-catching pedigree that most dynasty owners pursue. Buy him for a third-round pick in a tight end premium league and if you lost Blake Jarwin, try adding him to an offer to get Sample and hope to hit the reset button.
Chris Carson, RB SEA – Sell
This one is much easier said than done. With that said, the Seahawks have unleashed Russell Wilson and through two weeks have leveraged more than sixty percent of their offense being through the air. Although he has produced with his touches, Carson has only carried 23 times and hauled in nine targets. He ranks sixth in the league in PPR, but more than 40 percent of his production has come on touchdowns.
This ratio is not sustainable and is far higher than his career 11.1 percent of touches coming through the air. If the Seahawks continue to dominate teams through the air and find themselves in competitive games where the other teams keep pace, the overall workload for Carson will not be as expected.
The Move – This all comes down to your league economy. Carson has never been more valuable on the trade market than on your roster. However, with contending teams without Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey, and the Seahawks new-look offense, the last window to sell him is now. Accept any first-round pick in superflex or consider a package for a future second-round pick plus second-round equivalent player in a package deal.
Freddie Swain, WR SEA – Add
This one is going deep down into the trenches. With that said, we have already seen 27 wide receivers outside of the top 50 in the latest WR ADP post WR3 or better weeks in 2020 and Swain has logged 28 snaps through two games. Although no more than the fourth receiver option, Russell Wilson brings efficiency to anyone running routes.
A sixth-round draft pick this spring, he not only made the team but is already trusted to get on the field. These are very encouraging signs for a rookie and when tied to an offense like the Seahawks, any active skill player is worthy of a roster spot.
The Move – Consider adding Swain on waivers in superflex leagues with more than 32 roster spots and single-quarterback leagues with more than 28 roster spots. Like Demarcus Robinson in 2018 and Byron Pringle in 2019, do not be shocked if Swain breaks through for a few usable weeks this season.
CONCLUSION
The decimation is real, and the flurry of activity is about to commence in many leagues. Do not panic. There are no true contenders or pretenders yet but be honest with yourself and consider the direction of your team a bit more closely after this week. Leverage teams that have lost players and take the value wins where you can, even if it means sacrificing 2020 production. If this week is any indication of the rest of the year, we are just getting started.
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