DLF Writers Rookie Mock Draft, Round Two
A very long, odd summer in so many ways is finally behind us and now we get to head into what might be an equally long, odd fall. The good news is that at least for now, the NFL is back! Hopefully, they can have the same success that some of the other leagues have had and are able to keep everyone safe while still providing a little respite and entertainment for us at home.
The week before the season kicked off, I was joined by eleven of DLF’s finest to conduct one more rookie mock draft. We didn’t have the normal NFL summer programs to help us evaluate all of the rookies as well as helping them earn bigger roles to open the season. However, there have been a few significant occurrences recently so a value check is definitely in order.
The rules for the mock draft were pretty simple. We drafted as if the league was PPR scoring and only one quarterback in starting lineups. No trades were allowed and the draft order was randomly generated. Even though we drafted with one starting quarterback in mind, I’ll provide some of our thoughts on where the quarterbacks might be valued in a superflex league.
If you haven’t done so already, you should look back at round one.
Note: Remember that this mock was conducted before week 1 kicked off, and the first two rounds of the write-up were finished before then as well.
Top Third:
2.01 – Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB TB
2.02 – Tee Higgins, WR CIN
2.03 – Joe Burrow, QB CIN
2.04 – Van Jefferson, WR LAR
It wasn’t that long ago that Vaughn was a fixture in the late or even middle of the first round. Personally, I saw him go as high as the 1.06 selection in one of the leagues I play in. I kept having visions of Bishop Sankey and countless others who suddenly shot up draft boards based on draft position alone.
Vaughn was a third round selection in our pre-draft mock, and I feel like that is appropriate for him. A lot of people are fading on him right now, but not all. The one and only Ghost had this to say about his selection, “I believe Vaughn will fill almost exactly the role that Peyton Barber filled before leaving for Washington. He’s a more powerful runner than Jones who should be able to pick up the tough yardage when it’s needed. He isn’t just a battering ram, he has shown dependable hands as a receiver in college as well. Worst case he fills Barber’s role, best case he can shoulder the full load of Jones is hurt or falters.”
After Vaughn we have a pair of teammates who I am really excited about long term.
Higgins could be a middle first round rookie pick in some of the previous year draft classes. While I don’t think he will ever be elite, he can be the next best thing. Plus, he’s going to get a chance to grow with his new quarterback, the first one selected in this mock.
Burrow has what it takes to be a QB1 in the NFL for the next 12-15 years and is my top quarterback in this draft class. The only thing he is missing is the rocket arm, but we have seen some of the best quarterbacks of all time play for decades without having a cannon. Mike Havens drafted Burrow in this mock and definitely agrees with my assessment of his upside. In fact, Mike believes he is easily the 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts. I think it is a bit harder choice than Mike, but at the very least he is 1.03 in superflex.
Van Jefferson going at the 2.04 was a bit of a shock to me. At this point in the mock, there were at least four other receivers who I expected to go ahead of him. Currently in DLF’s rankings, he is WR12 and at the 2.10 in twelve team leagues. I just saw him go in the middle of the third round in a league I am in which was drafting around the same time this mock was happening. Some view him as the eventual Cooper Kupp replacement due to Jefferson’s strong hands and nice routes, but I don’t know if he has the same ceiling as Kupp even if he does get that role.
Middle of the Second Round:
2.05 – Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
2.06 – AJ Dillon, RB GB
2.07 – Denzel Mims, WR NYJ
2.08 – Laviska Shenault, WR JAC
Let’s start with Dillion, the lone running back in this grouping. While there hasn’t been nearly as much news this summer as most years thanks to the lack of OTAs, mini-camps, and other organized activities, we have had some news. In regards to Dillon, it has been a very healthy dose of praise and optimism which has been pushing him up boards. Between pictures of his massive legs to the Packers’ GM saying he could be an even better version of Eddie Lacy for the team. Keep in mind that Lacy was a rookie of the year and a RB1 stable for a few years in Green Bay. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Dillon go even earlier than this, but I think you will need to be a little patient because Aaron Jones is still the lead dog.
That brings us to the trio of receivers. The ironic part of this grouping for me is that the receiver who had the most injury concerns, not only in this group but perhaps out of the entire receiver draft class, is the only one who is healthy! Both Aiyuk and Mims have dropped a little bit in the last few weeks due to being hurt and unable to practice. They might even miss some time this season. While missing a few games shouldn’t tank a players dynasty stock, fantasy owners were hoping that both of them would take advantage of the relatively thin depth charts on their teams and produce right away. I think both of them are bargains at this point in the draft. Aiyuk has the higher floor but Mims has a little more ceiling in my opinion.
The lone healthy receiver of this grouping, Shenault’s stock has been all over the place since the NFL draft. Even though he has stayed healthy, which for me was the largest concern about him coming out of the draft, he seems to be slipping a little bit. At one point he was a fringe first round rookie pick, but no one seemed excited about drafting him. I was even able to pick him up in the early third in one of my leagues! He has a ton of talent and I think people are wrong to let him slide like this. I love the value at this point in the draft and think he could easily have gone about half a round earlier.
End of the Second Round:
2.09 – Bryan Edwards, WR LV
2.10 – Zack Moss, RB BUF
2.11 – Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
2.12 – KJ Hamler, WR DEN
I feel like the second round ended with an odd mix of players. There are a few who I feel are trending up and will likely be middle or maybe even early second round picks a month from now, one who the hype is fading just a little bit for no good reason, and one who has been a bit of an afterthought through the whole process.
Edwards is one of the players who I feel is trending upwards right now, but I worry that it might be just hype. Edwards has been a hot name in the community since the NFL draft, largely due to his prototypical size, breakout age, and opportunity to see snaps early. Adam Wilde wrote this about his selection of Edwards, “I feel as though 2.09 is too late. If not for the injury before the draft, I believe he’d have been drafted in the early second of the NFL draft and now he has early opportunity. I put him in the same tier as Pittman, Mims, and Higgins.”
Here’s the thing with Edwards that some people aren’t going to like: he’s never been super productive to the point there he could be an Alpha on an NFL team. He had 48 starts in college. Of those 48 games, he had over 100 yards in only eight games and multiple touchdowns in only three games. I understand that some of it is the offense, but his former teammate Deebo Samuel had the same number of 100 yard and multiple touchdown games in almost half the number of starts in the same system. I like Edwards, but I feel like his ceiling is being vastly overstated. He’s a good late second round pick but not much higher in my book.
The other player who seems to be rising right now is Moss. There is a lot of hype coming out of Buffalo that it is a ‘when’ not an ‘if’ in regards to him taking over the lead running back role. If that is the case, this is definite too late in the draft for him to be going. My concerns with Moss are that while he is consistent and reliable, he isn’t overly explosive and lacks that special quality that the great rushers have. I also worry about the system due to Josh Allen’s ability to run the ball and sometimes his lack of ability to sustain drives.
I asked Adam Tzikas about his selection of Moss, “I would take him almost anywhere in the second. I think he can be a very steady back in the league, he has really good pad level, great vision, and a punishing style. I will say his over ceiling can be a bit capped due to lack of athleticism, but his style is always welcomed in the NFL.” I see a player who could slot into the RB2 mold, sometimes higher end, often times lower end depending on the game script.
One of the hottest names for the last several years, Tua’s stock seems to be slipping recently, even as all reports about his health seem to be positive. I talked with Addison Hayes about how it felt to get Tua. He said, “Grabbing Tua at 2.11 was a bit of a surprise to me, especially after Joe Burrow was taken at 2.03. I do not view the two being eight picks apart, even in a 1QB league, especially with some of the players taken between them in this mock. While I believe Burrow to be a rare talent at QB and potentially the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck, Tua was on that pace as well before his injury in 2019.
I am not at all concerned about Tua’s health moving forward.” For me, I am more concerned about Tua long term in regards to his health. He suffered multiple different injuries in college ranging from concussions to ankle surgery and of course the hip. From my experience, players with multiple injuries like that don’t suddenly become injury free. I expect him to have a very bright career but with frequent visits to the trainer’s table, much like Randall Cunningham when I was growing up. In superflex, I have Tua behind Burrow and the top two running backs for sure. He starts to enter the debate at 1.04 for me.
Our last pick of the second round is Hamler. Unlike the other three players in this grouping, he’s just been there all off season. He has been injured for the last few weeks, but it really hasn’t moved his stock much as he remains in the late second early third in most places I’ve looked. I’ve never been super excited about him and believe he has limited upside as what is likely to be the fourth target on an offense which hasn’t fully formed yet. Personally, I would prefer to look for a little more upside with this pick.
That wraps up round two! Our third and final round will be coming your way soon!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
