DLF Writers Rookie Mock Draft, Round Three

Jacob Feldman

A very long, odd summer in so many ways is finally behind us and now we get to head into what might be an equally long, odd fall. The good news is that at least for now, the NFL is back! Hopefully, they can have the same success that some of the other leagues have had and are able to keep everyone safe while still providing a little respite and entertainment for us at home.

The week before the season kicked off, I was joined by eleven of DLF’s finest to conduct one more rookie mock draft. We didn’t have the normal NFL summer programs to help us evaluate all of the rookies as well as helping them earn bigger roles to open the season. However, there have been a few significant occurrences recently so a value check is definitely in order!

The rules for the mock draft were pretty simple. We drafted as if the league was PPR scoring and only one quarterback in starting lineups. No trades were allowed and the draft order was randomly generated. Even though we drafted with one starting quarterback in mind, I’ll provide some of our thoughts on where the quarterbacks might be valued in a superflex league.

If you haven’t done so already, you should look back at round one and round two.

Note: Remember that this mock was conducted before week one kicked off, and the first two rounds of the write-up were finished before then as well. The third round write-up was written after week one kicked off.

Top Third:

3.01 – Chase Claypool, WR PIT
3.02 – Darrynton Evans, RB TEN
3.03 – Joshua Kelley, RB LAC
3.04 – Devin Duvernay, WR BAL

Once you get 20 or more players into any draft, I typically tend to shift my focus. At this point, we know that the vast majority of running backs and wide receivers who are selected are going to bust. The success rate for those positions in the third round of rookie drafts is in the 10-20% range. In other words, one maybe two of the running backs and receivers drafted in this round will still be fantasy relevant in three years. With that said, I’m mostly looking for the big upside players.

When it comes to upside with the two running backs in this group, the player who stands out the most to me is Evans. He was an explosive three down skill set in college and the Titans made it clear that he is the primary backup to Derrick Henry. While he isn’t going to push Henry for carries, he does provide an element that they didn’t have last year. Should Henry get injured, I think Evans has the talent to instantly be a RB2. There are a few concerns, such as the fumbles in training camp as well as the soft tissue injuries, but the upside is there.

Second on my upside list would be Kelley. Kelley seems to have a very realistic role as the number two option behind Austin Ekeler. I think he also has a solid chance to be the red zone guy for the team as he profiles a little better for that role than the rest of the running backs on the team. However, the reason he’s behind Evans in terms of upside is that I don’t think he has anything that is special in terms of ability. I think he’s above average across the board but without a signature trait.

When it comes to Claypool and Duvernay, there are concerns for both of them but for different reasons. Duvernay is slightly undersized, and I have concerns about how he fits into the Baltimore offense given some of the other pieces they already have in place on the team. I think he would be extremely inconsistent and unreliably in a fantasy lineup.

With Claypool, the raw skills are definitely there. However, he definitely has a long ways to go before he can be counted on as a fantasy option. Plus, the Steelers are pretty flush with receivers right now and he’ll be at best fifth in the pecking order. If you draft Claypool, patience will be key.

Middle of the Third Round:

3.05 – Quintez Cephus, WR DET
3.06 – Anthony McFarland, RB PIT
3.07 – Lynn Bowden, RB MIA
3.08 – Cole Kmet, TE CHI

While I like most of the players in the first four picks of this round in terms of upside, I’m less optimistic on this group. The one who jumps out to me is Cephus. As someone who lives on the Minnesota-Wisconsin border, I saw a lot of him in college. I know he didn’t test very well in terms of raw numbers, but he plays much faster than he tests. He is explosive, has great technique, wins at the point of the catch, and knows how to play the position. That combination of skills mixed with the fact that virtually every receiver on the Lions’ roster is a free agent next year makes me very optimistic about his upside.

With McFarland and Bowden, I’m not overly optimistic that either of them has much of a chance to be more than an NFL backup or at best a committee player. Bowden was already traded for significantly less than the draft capital that was spent on him and McFarland is buried on the depth chart. I also have some concerns about their overall talent level and ability to be a consistent fantasy producer even if they did have the opportunity.

That brings us to our very first tight end of this mock draft, Kmet. There has been a lot of talk about how the tight ends in this year’s draft class aren’t even worth a roster spot. I asked Ryan Finley who drafted Kmet for his thoughts on where Kmet could be in three or four years. Here is what he said, “I wrote rookie profiles on five of this year’s tight ends for DLF, and Kmet was one of my favorite prospects at the position.

I think Kmet has the best combination of the right traits for an NFL tight end and a clear path to a starting job. If you ask me, he has top-10 upside long term.” If Ryan is right, that’s quite the deal at this point in a rookie draft. I’m a big fan of going after quarterbacks or tight ends in the third because they have a better rate of return than other positions. It is definitely worth a shot.

End of the Third Round:

3.09 – Albert Okwuegbunam, TE DEN
3.10 – Tyler Johnson, WR TB
3.11 – Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR WAS
3.12 – Justin Herbert, QB LAC

The second tight end of our mock comes immediately after the first. By all accounts, Okwuegbunam had a great camp. In fact, some were even saying he was the best player at Broncos camp this fall. The upside is definitely there.

However, I do have some concerns about the opportunity piece. Not only is he competing with Noah Fant for snaps a year after Fant was drafted in the first round, but there are a lot of other pass catchers on the team as well with an unproven quarterback. I also think there might have been a bit of hyperbole in the praise given how long it typically takes for rookie tight ends to adjust to the NFL. He’s a great stash, but expecting anything soon would be foolish.

When it comes to Johnson, I’ll admit that I struggle to be fully objective on him. I’m a former Gopher who still lives in Minnesota, so I’ve been a fan of his for years. Much like his fellow Big 10 alum Cephus, Johnson plays much stronger and faster than he tests. He is the type of player who won’t ever be the primary target on an NFL team, but he can be an extremely good complement who will make an offense better. In terms of fantasy upside, he probably has a ceiling as a high end WR3 or low end WR2. For the price, I like him.

Gandy-Golden has great size and a history of being productive, though it was at a smaller school. He’s great at the point of the catch with his body control and hands, but there is a big question about his athletic ability. Aside from the actual catching of the football, which is a pretty big deal for a receiver, he lacks a lot of the other characteristics that a receiver needs. I think this is going to severely limit his overall upside.

Mr. Irrelevant of this mock draft was our third quarterback of the mock, Justin Herbert. It is a great upside pick at this point in the mock draft. He is going to need some time to develop, and the Chargers are going to need to do a better job at surrounding him with talent. With that said, I think there is potential for him to become a top-10 quarterback in a few years if everything goes right.

Before I wrap up this mock, I feel the need to address the elephant in the room. We went through the entirety of this mock draft without James Robinson being selected. At the time of this mock, Leonard Fournette was still on the Jaguars by a few hours. With that said, I was still surprised Robinson made it through to the end as I considered him a third round player. If this mock were held today, I think Robinson would probably slide in around AJ Dillon and Zack Moss in the middle of the second round.

That’s it for our late August/early September mock draft. Enjoy the NFL season!

jacob feldman