Tuesday Transactions: Week Two

Scott Connor

Football is back! The long-awaited debut of the NFL kicked off with a bang (and without many fans) and although everything we thought we knew for the last six months is likely being questioned, overreaction theatre is best avoided for a few more weeks. With that said, every week matters. Act now to get ahead of the curve.

Here are five dynasty transactions along with actionable advice involving each player.

Russell Gage, WR ATL – Sell

Gage is WR92 in the latest ADP. He saw 12 targets and converted that into 20.4 PPR points in week one. He played 70 percent of the offensive snaps and cemented himself as the clear option. What is his value in dynasty? Minimal. Remember names like Nelson Agholor and Zach Pascal? They also posted multiple WR1 weeks last season and are nowhere to be found on the ADP list this season.

With Gage tied to one of the pass-happiest offenses in 2020, dynasty owners will write a narrative that he is already involved and one Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley injury away from delivering huge value. Gage was a nothing prospect who is only a name in dynasty because of his current situation. Situations change; bet against this one.

The Move – look to sell Gage for a third-round pick in superflex leagues and ask for a wide receiver back in the deal. Given how many receivers are relevant, odds are this just ends up being a free draft pick.

Blake Jarwin, TE DAL – Buy

The season ended abruptly for Jarwin after tearing his ACL in the first half of the Cowboys week one loss. After battling Jason Witten for opportunity over the past few seasons, Jarwin climbed to TE15 in the latest September ADP and was tied to one of the most prolific offenses and a situation with a very narrow usage tree.

Jarwin owners are likely to overreact and write him off as irrelevant. Given his lack of pedigree and value seemingly only based on current situation, the Cowboys rewarded him with a multi-year extension prior to the season. A torn ACL is not a career death sentence any longer and given this injury took place too early in the season, Jarwin will be on track to play next summer.

The Move – Target the Jarwin owner with Greg Olsen, Logan Thomas, Jared Cook or Jack Doyle and target their draft pick compensation in-return and get Jarwin thrown into the trade. Be aggressive in leagues with heavy tight end premium or start two tight end leagues where the scarcity may increase the likelihood a team may have interest in making an early deal.

Gus Edwards, RB BAL – Add

This move seems to be completely out of left field. Why would Edwards be someone I should add when JK Dobbins relegated him to bench fodder? The situation. The fantastic situation. Edwards saw only four touches on Sunday and was firmly third in the pecking order behind Dobbins and Mark Ingram. With overreaction theatre on full display, expect him to be dropped in many superflex leagues with 27 or less roster spots.

From a general strategy perspective, any running back on a depth chart could be an injury or coaching decision away from value. The Ravens are the premier rushing offense in the league and any gameday active runner should be owned in most leagues.

The Move – Determine how many wide receivers can get in your lineup with up to a 50 percent attrition rate (WR starters + flex spots multiplied by 1.5) and who could see a value gain even if they do not ever crack a starting spot. Any receiver who does not fit either of these categories is a potential casualty for Edwards off the waiver wire.

Cam Akers, RB LAR – Buy

Akers finished the week as RB53 and on the surface, dynasty owners are likely writing him as a week one bust. Look again. Akers played 24 snaps and touched the ball on 24 of them. The numbers were underwhelming but the usage was not. Unlike JK Dobbins and Jonathan Taylor, who will rise in demand after their week one outputs, Akers is being forgotten.

Darrell Henderson was hardly involved. Malcolm Brown averages less than four yards per attempt for his career and has missed 26 career games out of a possible 81. Chances are Akers sees multiple weeks with ample opportunity to take the backfield and from a dynasty perspective, is better than any running back coming into the NFL until 2023. The window is closing fast.

The Move – Add a second-round draft pick to a week one darling like Chris Carson or David Johnson and watch it be one of the best moves you have ever made to acquire a future dynasty RB1. This move is especially beneficial to a team that is already a prime contender as you hit the reset button at the most important position in dynasty.

Michael Thomas, WR NO – Sell

There might not be a more obvious (but under-discussed) week one dynasty loser. Thomas saw only five targets, caught three of them and finished as WR84 (4.7 PPR points). More importantly, suffered a high-ankle sprain in the fourth quarter and was not involved after the injury. Early reports suggest he will play through the injury but a quick search on the injury impact does look promising when you are banking on a player who produces almost exclusively on volume.

Currently the number one wide receiver in ADP and a massive sell all off-season, the time to cash out on anything close to his current value is running out. It might already be too late. Even with close to expectations this season, the uncertainty at quarterback after 2020 makes me question his portfolio value already.

The Move – Trade Thomas for CeeDee Lamb, a first and second-round pick in a superflex league with more ten or more starters. If you want to aim higher, deal Thomas for DeAndre Hopkins plus a second-round pick or any other top-15 wide receiver and a first-round pick. Add a late pick or equivalent player to Thomas to seal the deal.

CONCLUSION

Do not overreact or rush on making deals after one week. However, think deeper about what makes up dynasty value. Even if I did not touch on a specific player on your mind, think critically about why their value is where it is and act. Pinpoint other players in similar situations to those that I referenced and come up with a few trade ideas each week. Sometimes, you will not be able to get a deal made but the exercise will make you a much better dynasty player. Do not worry about being a contender or in a rebuild; you can do both.

scott connor