IDP Dynasty Waiver Wire: Week Two
Football is finally back. The fact that you are looking at this article to find the next IDP value instead of reading yet another depressing article in the world of COVID, politics, or natural disasters says everything we need. Just take a moment, breathe, and enjoy this for what it is.
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week one observations
- Eric Murray was all over the field in the kickoff game. Not only did he finish second on the team in total tackles with seven, but he also caused some noise in the backfield. This is a name worth monitoring in deeper leagues.
- Jamal Adams’ departure from New York has allowed both Marcus Maye and Bradley McDougald to become worthy IDP contributors. Boring, but effective
- LJ Collier, Seattle’s first-round pick last season, turned in yet another quiet performance along the defensive line even with Jadeveon Clowney out of the picture. I’d be looking to sell for anything I can at this point.
- Nick Vigil’s stock is soaring with the injury to Drue Tranquill. The Chargers LB is in line for an expanded role in a historically valuable IDP spot
- Sam Hubbard is a tackle machine. He should be a top ten dynasty defensive end for the foreseeable future.
- K’Lavon Chaisson nearly had an interception in his debut game but it got called back. He is showing great promise as an IDP asset along with his rookie teammate CJ Henderson.
- Malik Harrison is bound to see more playing time after a strong debut against the Browns. Despite playing only 36 snaps (21 on defense, 15 on special teams), Harrison turned in four tackles and is showing a solid understanding of Baltimore’s defense.
- Leonard Floyd played 94% of snaps for the Rams, while Kenny Young played 74% of the snaps. In leagues with specific OLB designations instead of EDGE, this is a player who looks like a rising value after three straight disappointing years in Chicago. Check with the manager who may be tired of rostering him and looking to dispose of Floyd for cheaper than they should.
- The New Orleans Saints surrendered 11(!) tackles for loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s yet to be seen whether or not this was due to Tampa Bay specifically, but since New Orleans was a top-five offensive line last year, this is a situation to monitor in week-to-week matchups.
- To those disappointed in Isaiah Simmons’ slow start – don’t panic! He only played 29% of the team’s snaps in their debut. This will get better, and soon.
- Josh Jones may have found the perfect destination in free agency after a rocky start to his career in Green Bay. This is a safety with a high tackle floor and had eight interceptions in his college career at NC State.
- Mike Daniels is a proven insurance policy for those who may have DJ Reader and are shaky after his week one injury.
- Joe Thomas is a must-grab linebacker for those who lost out on Leighton Vander Esch for the next few months, as Sean Lee is already on IR.
- Yannick Ngakoue played 56% of Minnesota’s snaps, while James Odenigbo played 77% of snaps. I’d scoop up Odenigbo AND Ngakoue and wait for one to emerge, because one will. They crush the Disruption Score.
- Jeremy Chinn is a legit safety for those looking for depth in that area of their IDP roster. He played a full 100% of Carolina’s snaps right away and looked like a seasoned veteran.
- Josh Bynes may be so bad on the field that he’s a very valuable dynasty linebacker. And when it comes to scoring points, that isn’t the worst thing ever…
- Zach Allen is a young player worth asking around for in your league.
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Aldon Smith, DE DAL (Disruption Score: 59.78)
11 tackles in your first game back after five years? Wow. First of all, props to Smith for turning his life around and finding his footing with a team that is perfect for his skill set. Dallas loves to rotate their defensive ends all game to keep them fresh, yet 30-year-old Smith led the group in playing time (Smith- 74%, Lawrence- 63%, Griffen- 58%, Crawford- 55%) and came up with a key sack when Dallas needed it most. Most leagues probably still have Smith on the waiver wire as people wanted to see Smith thrive before believing it, but this is a defensive end with a legitimate case to finish the season with ten-plus sacks and as a DE2 for the year.
William Gholston, DE TB (Disruption Score: 52.34)
Gholston had a fantastic week one in terms of Disruption Score. On a day where the Saints never quite seemed to find a comfortable rhythm on offense, Gholston was living in the backfield. Gholston has had flashes of IDP relevance over the years, and Shaquil Barrett leading the league in sacks last year shows that this defensive line is a valuable group to grab a piece of, if available. As mentioned earlier, this defensive line was able to accrue 11 tackles for loss versus one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They should eat again against the Panthers in week two.
Grover Stewart, DT IND (Disruption Score: 22.14)
While DeForest Buckner is the clear blue-chip dynasty asset along a strong Indianapolis defensive line, Stewart is showing the opposition not to overlook him in their game plan. This is purely a focus for those in DT-featured leagues, but his standalone value is already showing itself in week one, and his handcuff value for a stud like Buckner has value in itself as well.
Linebacker
Nate Gerry, LB PHI (Disruption Score: 18.40)
I was a bit skeptical of Gerry as a quality linebacker for IDP leagues after hearing about Nigel Bradham’s release, but I couldn’t have been more wrong in my doubts after seeing him against Washington week one. Gerry racked up ten total tackles, helping limit Washington’s rushing attack to just 80 total yards on 36 carries (2.2/rush). Gerry had two interceptions last season with the Eagles, and it’s nice to see Gerry be the one whose tackle floor shot up with Bradham out of the picture. He is a serviceable LB3 going forward, with upside to be an LB2.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Chase Winovich, DE NE (Week two, vs. Seattle)
This is a chance for me not only to shout out Winovich, but also LB Ja’Whaun Bentley as two massive bounce back Patriot defenders after bumpy rookie seasons. Although half of their defense seemed to opt out it and they were up against Ryan Fitzpatrick, this Patriots defense still had a level dominant production we saw from them last season, racking up three interceptions and seven tackles for loss. Winovich led the Patriots defensive ends in snaps played (68%), which was more than prior New England starters John Simon and Deatrich Wise. Winovich appears to have won over the New England coaching staff with a strong training camp, and he has the athleticism to turn into their next Trey Flowers. This is a rising prospect with a great matchup in week two.
Trey Hendrickson, DE NO (Week two, @ Las Vegas)
This one is purely a plug-and-play should Marcus Davenport miss extended time with his shoulder injury. Every time Davenport misses time, Hendrickson fills the stat sheet with a sack and/or at least three tackles. The Raiders lost not only starting right tackle Trent Brown but also their backup right tackle, leaving either Davenport or Hendrickson left to feast on that side all day long.
Linebacker
Alec Ogletree, LB NYJ (Week two, vs. San Francisco)
Talk about foresight from the Jets’ front office. After losing yet another linebacker to injury in week one, CJ Mosley, Avery Williamson, Patrick Onwuasor, and Blake Cashman are all currently out of commission. Ogletree tested the free agency market all summer and was unable to find a proper suitor, so the Jets signed him to their practice squad at the beginning of the season just in case. Now, Ogletree has his moment. Ogletree has accrued at least ninety total tackles in five of his seven years in the NFL, and should slot in directly to a prominent role in their lackluster defense. Scoop him up if the previous manager gave up on him and enjoy against a run-heavy San Francisco team.
Krys Barnes, LB GB (Week two, vs. Detroit)
Christian Kirksey may wear the dot in Green Bay, but don’t think he’s the only Packers linebacker with IDP value. Barnes showed up with the second-most tackles on the team (behind Kirksey) and a pair of tackles for loss on only 23 total snaps (29% of defensive snaps)! That sort of production out of the rookie should beg Green Bay to give him some more playing time over the likes of Preston Smith and Rashan Gary at some point, and is a fine deep stash behind Kirksey, who has struggled mightily at staying healthy over the past two seasons.
Defensive Backs
Brandon Jones, SS MIA (Week two, vs. Buffalo)
Speaking of dynamic rookie debuts, Jones couldn’t be stopped against the Patriots on Sunday. The third-round pick slated in for long time contributor Reshad Jones without missing a beat, and dynasty players should keep tabs on him as a safety worth rostering. Jones looks to continue his momentum against a Buffalo team that allowed two Jets safeties to score 12+ IDP points the week prior. Jones is a player to acquire now, and simply drop in a worst-case scenario if he needs more time to develop. If he is ready for the big stage, however, he could be a comfortable starting safety for years to come.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
