Sunday Six Pack: Week One
I’m just going to go ahead and say it. 2020 has been an un-funny kick to the groin for roughly 256 days. The highs have not been that high, but the lows are gut-wrenching. It is in this time of distress and uncertainty that we, as fans of the game and the game within the game, can unite and be excited about something. The return of football was speculation just months ago, yet we have made it. We are here.
Dust off and de-wrinkle those jerseys. Prepare the wings (bone-in or boneless, you do you) and nachos. Chill the beverages of choice and snuggle up with a pile of words dedicated to dynasty football.
As we open week one, there are still plenty of questions caused by the shortened training camps and complete lack of preseason. We are going to cover a few of those here.
What do we do with Washington’s backfield?
There is speculation, evaluation, argumentation, and some other -ations to go along with this question. Too many -ations to list here. So let’s assess what we know and attempt to decipher what we can from that.
As it stands, there are four running backs to discuss. Antonio Gibson, Bryce Love, JD McKissic, and yes… Peyton Barber.
We will start at the bottom here and work our (perceived) way up. McKissic is not a between-the-tackles back. Entering his fifth season, he has exactly one rushing touchdown to his name. Before you chuckle at that, that is one more rushing touchdown than either running back we will be discussing henceforth has in the NFL. McKissic has always profiled as a change-of-pace receiving option. He has two seasons where he caught 40-plus passes at 7.4 yards-per-reception. To start the season, McKissic may have limited fantasy value but should remain on managers’ radar.
Barber had some good games last season in Tampa Bay, working as the surprise factor every time someone felt semi-comfortable starting Ronald Jones. However, Barber has always looked and felt like “just a guy” in the backfield. It is difficult to envision him having a meaningful role outside of injury to one of the other three.
Bryce Love almost seemed forgotten in this backfield by all except those who happen to have him rostered on their dynasty squads. Recency bias is good for that. Now might be a good time to remind everyone of the kind of college production Love had. The Stanford standout averaged over seven yards-per-carry in three of his four seasons at the collegiate level. Including an impressive junior season where he finished with 2,118 rushing yards 19 scores on the ground. His 8.1 yards-per-carry average is impressive considering that average is based on a whopping 263 carries.
Love cooled off his senior season and suffered an injury that drove his draft stock down into the fourth round. However, a team willing to spend a fourth-round pick knowing they’re putting that rookie on ice for a season should speak loudly as far as capital goes.
This brings us to Gibson. Gibson is a fun prospect to watch but difficult to project in the NFL. He basically has one year of production to build a process from. In that season, he was a hybrid wide receiver who totaled 33 career collegiate carries. What he did with those carries is impressive. He averaged 11.2 yards per carry and rumbled for four scores on the ground. On 38 receptions he finished with 735 yards (19.3 Y/R) and eight more scores. The guy was legit dangerous with the ball in his hands.
The Washington team saw something special enough in this young man to grab him 66th overall when Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson were still on the roster and the assumed one-two punch.
So now what? We are now similarly acquainted with these players, who’s the guy to chase for dynasty squads?
Sadly, my crystal ball is broken, so I am going to have to shoot from the hip here. This has all the makings of a committee, hot-hand approach. To start the season all three backs are going to be involved until someone emerges. In all likelihood, Love could start as the first and second down pounder, while Gibson takes over third-down and passing-down work with McKissic sprinkled in for flavor.
Gibson’s ADP is on the steady rise while Love’s is just starting to come up. Savvy managers are paying attention to usage and snap counts starting week one to determine where to spend their capital. This is the opportunity to get Love at a reasonable cost if he were to take over as the main rusher and goal-line back. The apparent safer floor play is Love or McKissic, while the higher potential ceiling is Gibson. Gibson has the potential and the athletic skill-set to rapidly rise to the top of the depth chart and be the guy in this backfield.
Either way, there is plenty of volatility involved as both options have risks. It becomes a question of how much of a cost to play the upside game with an uncertain backfield on what appears to be an offense that will struggle throughout the season.
Which second-year receivers should we be paying attention to?
There really is no need to talk about the likes of AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin here. They should already be in starting lineups for most teams. But who are some of the ones that can take that second season leap?
Diontae Johnson, WR PIT
Johnson is the forerunner here. He already had some production, even with less than stellar quarterback play. He finished his 2019 campaign with 680 yards and five scores on 92 targets. With Ben Roethlisberger back under center, the quality of targets should improve. The fact that he has a year in the system should also factor into his understanding of the playbook and therefore his success.
Parris Campbell, WR IND
Campbell is another who we should monitor, especially early on in the season. A faster version of TY Hilton, Campbell is poised for a breakout. Philip Rivers adores targets over the middle of the field, and Campbell is expected to fill that slot role. With consistent targets and breakaway speed, there is plenty of reason to be watching Campbell early on.
N’Keal Harry, WR NE
Bill Belichick dropped the largest amount of draft capital on a receiver of his entire tenure as the Patriots head coach on Harry in 2019. Harry then spent a good chunk of the season battling injury. He finished the season with 105 yards and two scores on 24 total targets. He is not known for creating separation, but he excels at contested catches and bruising his way for extra yards after the catch. With Cam Newton’s lack of fear of throwing into tight windows, this could bode well for Harry as a second-year receiver.
Which veterans can help a win-now kind of team?
Keenan Allen, WR LAC
At 28 years old, if Allen has lost a step, it hasn’t been visible. While never a heavy touchdown scorer, he is a PPR target. The dip in cost of acquisition this season is primarily due to Tyrod Taylor being anointed as the day-one starter. That all makes sense, but Allen is coming off of three straight 1,000-plus yard seasons and just signed an extension. He remains a focal point of this passing attack and one of the premier route runners in the league. The dip in cost is worth acquiring him for squads that are poised to make playoff runs.
Julian Edelman, WR NE
Yes, Edelman is 34 years-old. Yes, he cannot be trusted for 16 games every season. Yes, there is a new quarterback in town. But, in seasons where he plays ten or more games, he has finished with 100-plus targets. Edelman is a brawler and wants all the targets he can handle. He does not shy away from contact and can be counted on to fight for extra yards. With a lack of proven talent around him, Edelman may again be the centerpiece of this passing attack heading into the 2020 season.
The value Edelman offers versus his ADP is tremendous. If you need a weekly flex, Edelman is acquirable. If you need safe floor kind of production with some scoring potential, he is your guy. As un-sexy as it is to draft or trade for a 34-year-old wide receiver now sans his quarterback older brother, he remains a high value versus cost option.
Latavius Murray, RB NO
Typically regarded as a “handcuff” to Alvin Kamara, Murray is certainly more than that. At 30 years old, which is roughly 49 in running back years, Murray showed that when called upon, he can handle the workload. Murray had two games of 20-plus carries during the 2019 season and put up over 100 rushing yards and at least a touchdown in both of them. He also finished the season with 43 targets.
Murray maintains some flex-type standalone value despite playing behind Kamara. He is not a handcuff, but a pertinent piece of this offense that happens to perform very well in fantasy scoring when called upon.
Who is James Robinson and should we care?
I would be remiss to mention that constant readers here at DLF should already be somewhat acquainted with Robinson. He has been mentioned by our staff on multiple occasions and even listed as a deep sleeper long prior to gaining buzz from Jacksonville after Leonard Fournette was cut.
The rise of undrafted running backs continues. Austin Ekeler and Phillip Lindsay have recently reminded us that undrafted is in no way synonymous with unable.
Speaking after the cut of Fournette, general manager Dave Caldwell had this to say concerning Robinson. “James has really just been a pleasant surprise. We liked him at the East-West Game, and we were fortunate to kind of luck into him at the end of the draft.”
Robinson, though coming from a smaller school, is no stranger to production. During his four-year collegiate career, he amassed over 4,400 rushing yards and 44 touchdowns, while displaying comfortable ease as a pass-catcher.
The five-foot-nine, 219-pound back can handle early-down work and has excellent vision and patience before attacking the hole. He has a shifty ability to create space for himself before contact.
The running back room is somewhat crowded even with Ryquell Armstead on the shelf in the Covid-19 protocol. Veteran pass-catching specialist Chris Thompson and recently signed Dare Ogunbowale round out the roster for the time being. Despite the crew around him, Robinson has shown enough in camp to be listed first on the Jaguars depth chart, and should get some game-time work early to see what he has.
Sure, the Jaguars are not the ideal team to be picking clean for fantasy fruits, but Robinson is budding and the time to bloom is nigh.
Robinson is a speculative acquisition at this point, but one worth taking the risk on. His skill set is reminiscent of a Phillip Lindsay that can be tough, shifty, and comfortable as a receiving or blocking option.
Is Anthony Miller someone to acquire?
In short, yes. Acquire him. We are going to go through this one Quentin Tarantino style and will start with the ending then backtrack to figure out how we got here. Yes, Miller should be on dynasty managers’ radar.
From week one through week ten last season, Miller had 30 targets for 218 yards and no touchdowns – not ideal. From week 11 through 17, he had 55 targets for 438 yards and two scores.
Taylor Gabriel being absent from the offense forced both Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky to look Miller’s way and good things happened. Gabriel is no longer on the roster, solidifying his role as the two. Through two seasons, Miller has compiled 1,079 yards and nine touchdowns on 139 targets.
The young Memphis standout has put together strings of games that make him appear like a key role player in this offense. Sadly those are often sandwiched in between single-digit disappointments.
So why should he be a target now? Trubisky has been named the starter (for now) and that does not instill confidence for any fantasy manager, dynasty or otherwise. However, he already has some rapport with Miller, which is a good thing for the third-year receiver’s seasonal outlook. All indications seem to point to the fact that despite being named the week-one starter, Trubisky is going to be on a short leash. Were Nick Foles to step in in a relief type of manner, he comes with a history of favoring his slot receiver. Either way, it looks like Miller is going to get a shot at stability in this offense.
With a startup ADP of WR55, the upside is there if he takes a step forward in his game and adds some consistency to his production.
Who Should Dynasty Managers Be Looking to Acquire Via Trade?
Daniel Jones, QB NYG
Here is the thing, I think Daniel has a bright future. Unfortunately, his season-opening schedule is brutal. In the first five weeks, he squares off against the Steelers, Bears, The 49ers, the Rams, and the Cowboys. That is a gauntlet of defenses to face for the second-year slinger. He showed some flashes last season but he also showed definite room for growth. If a manager has him, he may be enticed to trade him for less than value after four or five rough outings. This would be an excellent opportunity to acquire Jones on the cheap. With a startup ADP of QB12, start fishing in week four and see if the current manager is down on him.
Laviska Shenault Jr, WR JAC
Shenault should be aggressively pursued before he blows up in a very real way for fantasy. Jacksonville is one of the lowest projected teams in the NFL when it comes to seasonal wins. Their defense is a shell of its former self. Typically, I want to avoid investing in players for bad teams, but there is always an exception.
Shenault is a shifty, hybrid style of receiver who can be a multi-faceted weapon in space.
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Shenault is a bonafide playmaker. In his nine games as a sophomore, he cleared 1,000 receiving yards at 11.8 yards per reception and added 115 rushing yards to his 11 touchdown total. While the pace slowed in his 2019 season, he was not any less of a weapon.
With the recent departure of Leonard Fournette, there is suddenly a role to fill. We mentioned James Robinson earlier as someone to watch. Keep the other eye on how they deploy Shenault.
It is entirely possible that Shenault ends his rookie season as the WR2 and RB2 on this team. This is not just a suggested dynasty target to acquire, this applies to redraft as well. If Doug Marrone and company are crafting any plays with the intent of utilizing Shenault as a true weapon, he could be the hottest waiver pickup for seasonal leagues as early as next week.
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