Why You Should Invest in Rookie Running Backs
This article was going to be just a “Why I’m Investing in Clyde Edwards-Helaire” article, especially after the attention one of my recent tweets received. Some may view valuing Edwards-Helaire over Alvin Kamara in August 2020 a hot take, but really it is about playing the market and understanding how the community values player types, not individual players. So, instead of writing a straight Edwards-Helaire versus Kamara piece, I decided to expand this into a more theoretical article with actionable, evergreen content.
You often hear some variation of the phrase, “I play dynasty like it’s the stock market” from a lot of dynasty analysts, which can be a winning approach to the game; it is the essence of “selling high” and “buying low”. Using a stock market approach along with plenty of research and overall community knowledge, dynasty players usually look to sell running backs at or around age 26 in order to get “peak value”.
However, Shane Manila just recently published an article on DLF conveniently titled, “When Should You Sell Running Backs in Dynasty Leagues?”. Without spoiling the whole article, Shane’s research showed that 60% of top-12 PPR seasons from 2016-2019 come from running backs aged 24 and younger. Additionally, 64.6% of RB2 seasons come from running backs aged 25 and younger in the same timeframe. A lot of these seasons can be attributed to the massive influx of running back talent into the NFL from 2016 to today, specifically the historic 2017 class.
Nevertheless, we have still seen plenty of examples of backs hitting their dynasty shelf lives in recent years: Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, etc. Coincidentally, guess which rookie class is turning 25 years old in 2020? Yep, the aforementioned historic 2017 class, as well as other first-round assets like Ezekiel Elliott and Nick Chubb.
I made a quick chart that plots the startup ADPs of NFL first and second-round running backs since 2014. You can see that while the trend line is continually falling, the drop is not very steep from age 21 to 22, a little steeper from 22 to 23, a steeper fall off once you hit 24, then a drop after age 29.
Now, I am not sitting here saying that all or most of Elliott, Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, or Austin Ekeler are not going to be studs again in 2020. In fact, I could have just listed half of the top-12 running backs in fantasy scoring this season. What I am saying is the dynasty community values youth, maybe to a fault, but we love youth. Remember this line from the intro – understanding how the community values player types, not individual players?
Yes, all of the players above are studs, they’re great, they will carry your teams to the playoffs, but let’s fast forward next off-season to April 2021. Every player above is now 26 years old, or close to it. Ezekiel Elliott continues being a floor guy with a modest ceiling. Nick Chubb barely finished as an RB1 after an entire season with Kareem Hunt (did the Browns re-sign Hunt?). Alvin Kamara just lost Drew Brees. Dalvin Cook failed to record a 16 game season again. Aaron Jones did not get re-signed by the Packers or maybe he did but Matt LaFleur loves AJ Dillon too much. Austin Ekeler lost a lot of his valuable receiving work and is now dealing with a second-year quarterback. Oh, and once again, they are all 26 years old.
We love making excuses for players. We love vaulting young upside over known commodities (DK Metcalf is one receiver behind Allen Robinson), and the sad reality is, once those players begin to slip due to age, they’ll never gain value again no matter what they do on the field. Don’t believe me? Ask Julio Jones. Would it surprise you if you looked at 2021 ADP and saw Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and then four straight running backs from the 2019 and 2020 classes?
This leads me into the meat of this article: invest in rookie running backs. This could be expanded to second-year backs as well, especially those who produced in year one like Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs.
Using DLF ADP since 2015, I gathered 19 running backs who were drafted in the first or second round of the NFL Draft, all of whom had first-round rookie ADPs as well, and compared their startup ADPs from May of their rookie season with May of their second season. It may come at no surprise that 14 of the 19 backs (73.7%) all gained value heading into their second season in terms of startup price. This includes each class’s RB1, all being drafted in the first two rounds of dynasty startups in their rookie season.
It might be even more interesting to look at the five running backs who lost value after their rookie seasons:
This is an intriguing list because you can argue that Ameer Abdullah and Derrius Guice “lost” value based on dropping in ADP, only dropped half a round. We know Guice’s story and while Abdullah had a less-than-stellar rookie season, he was slated to enter the 2016 season as the Lions RB1, so both feel neutral more than value losers. Melvin Gordon is another weird one, who had zero touchdowns his rookie season, then vaulted to a perennial top-15 dynasty asset from 2017 to 2019. He is still a good example of a rookie running back losing value, however, given that he fell drastically below expectations in 2015.
The final two, Ronald Jones and Rashaad Penny, just straight up did nothing their rookie years, which goes to show it’s probably better for a rookie to miss a whole season due to injury than be unsuccessful. I get it, this is a small sample size of only nineteen backs over the back five years, but this should confirm a couple of things: the NFL gives opportunities to their highly drafted players, especially running backs, and the dynasty community values those same players highly.
Returning to the present day, this 2020 class has the potential to be as good, if not better, than the 2017 class, and the community knows this. Of those same 19 running backs in the sample above, only five were initially valued as top-30 dynasty assets in May startup drafts in their rookie seasons. In this class alone there are five running backs valued as top-30 startup assets from May 2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, and Cam Akers.
The premium prices on this year’s class of running backs are also most likely inflated by the overall shift in dynasty team building, where fantasy owners are enamored with collecting top running back talent and filling out their receivers with a very deep of players. You can see this pretty well from a recent tweet of mine below, depicting the change in the number of running backs and wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds of startups from DLF ADP.
Having some fun with some @DLFootball ADP…
Here is a plot of the total number of players drafted in the first two rounds of dynasty startups by position since 2014.
We've come a long way since 2016…👀 pic.twitter.com/0Tibebw99F
— Addison Hayes (@amazehayes_) August 1, 2020
Despite the inflated prices of running backs today, especially the rookies, it is still very likely that most, if not all of these rookie backs, gain value heading into 2021. I have already shown how it is possible that most of the veteran backs we know and love today (Kamara, Elliott, Chubb, Ekeler, etc) will all lose value next year, so it only makes sense they will be replaced by an even younger crop of running backs. Additionally, as talented as this 2020 class is, most of these backs went to backfields with an already established incumbent starter.
Imagine the hype surrounding each of these players when they get the backfield to themselves? We all know the upside of JK Dobbins without Mark Ingram on the team, but how much will his value rise when Ingram actually leaves? We are seeing it happen right now with Edwards-Helaire after Damien Williams opted out of 2020. The same will happen with Jonathan Taylor when Marlon Mack is gone, Swift without Kerryon Johnson, and when there is clarity in the Rams backfield with Akers as the primary workhorse.
In an age where the NFL is getting smarter, more analytical, and understanding positional value more, the dynasty community is also adapting. The NFL is showing us they are starting to devalue the running back position by not extending contracts of top running backs, not giving in to player holdouts, and not prioritizing rookie backs in the NFL draft. Running backs are still king in fantasy football and dynasty, but their shelf lives are still short and those value cliffs come fast.
The Godfather, Ryan McDowell, frequently talks about “buying years” in dynasty, a strategy he has used perennially to great success. Returning to the reason for this article in valuing Edwards-Helaire over Alvin Kamara in dynasty, the strategy of buying years is at the forefront of the argument. We know how productive the Chiefs offense is and how valuable an Andy Reid workhorse is. Even if you don’t believe me, believe Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire *should* have been a top-20 pick before Damien Williams opted out. Top-10 lock now.
Over the last two years, Damien Williams has averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game in 16 starts (50% or more of snaps). That would have made him 2019's No. 2 RB behind CMC.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 29, 2020
So ask yourself, if we are projecting Edwards-Helaire to be a top-ten running back in 2020 and Kamara to finish in the same range, why would you not want the younger player in dynasty? Sometimes, fantasy football isn’t that hard.
Footnote: Relevant to this article, AJ Dillon is a screaming asset to gain value in 2021. He is actually the only first or second-round running back from this 2020 class that is not drafted inside the top-30 overall picks. In fact, he’s not even in the top 100. Both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are unrestricted free agents in 2021, and it’s unlikely both are re-signed. Play the dynasty stock market and acquire some Dillon shares.
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