Next Man Up: IDPs
Anyone who has played fantasy football for some time is familiar with the concept of handcuffing your players. In this series, I’m going to take a look at some of the more overlooked backups who could become league winners if the players ahead of them fall victim to injury during the season.
READ: Next Man Up: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
This year, more than any, with a limited off-season and a global pandemic, it sure seems like we may see more backups see significant snaps than we have seen in recent memory. Omitting the obvious targets, I wanted to look at some of the more overlooked reserves who could be league winners if they are forced into action.
The previous installments looked at each of the offensive skill positions, as that is more of my comfort zone from a writing standpoint. I play in many IDP leagues, but very rarely dip my toe in the IDP-writing waters, so bear with me as a look at a few players at each level of the defense and give you some overlooked sleepers and backup names to keep on your radar as the year progresses. I hope this is more fun for you than it will be for me, but I think you’ll get some value plays out of this.
Defensive Line
Dawuane Smoot, DE JAC
There is still lots of confusion regarding what will happen with Yannick Ngakoue. Thus far, he has refused to sign his franchise tag and has claimed he will not sign a long-term deal with Jacksonville while requesting a trade. As of this writing, he has yet to report to Jaguars’ camp and claims to have no plans to do so.
Last year, on only 38% of the team’s defensive snaps, Smoot recorded six sacks, good for fourth-most on the team. Ahead of him a year ago, Calais Campbell has moved on, and it looks like Ngakoue is next, leaving only Josh Allen as a threat on the defensive line. The team drafted K’Lavon Chaisson to help the pass rush, but there’s a chance we see Smoot take on a significant workload through attrition alone.
Image from Ourlads.
Chad Thomas, DE CLE
Thomas started the final eight games of 2019 and performed well, tallying 26 tackles and four sacks over the course of the season. He’ll never cut into Myles Garrett‘s playing time, but playing opposite Garrett might work out for him at some point. Olivier Vernon hasn’t played 16 games since 2016 and only remains in a Browns’ uniform because he restructured his deal over the off-season. A second-round pick out of Miami in 2018, Thomas is poised to be the next man up.
PJ Hall, DT HOU
Another 2018 second-round pick, Hall, had spent the last two seasons with the Raiders, where he accumulated 18 starts in 30 games played. The Raiders tried to trade him during the off-season, but he failed his physical and was subsequently waived instead. Houston stepped in and signed Hall to a one-year deal after he was waived.
The Texans lost last year’s starting defensive tackle DJ Reader to free agency and drafted Ross Blacklock to fill the void. If Blacklock struggles and the team needs to turn to the veteran Hall, Reader was a top-20 fantasy player at the position a year ago in this system.
Honorable DL Mentions: Jerry Tillery, DT LAC and Neville Gallimore, DT DAL
Linebacker
Davion Taylor, LB PHI
Take a look at the Eagles’ depth chart at the linebacker position. Nathan Gerry, TJ Edwards, and Duke Ridley are the top-three at the position. That is, uh, not good. Not good at all. The Eagles know this, and drafted two linebackers and signed another UDFA at the position.
Among the new faces, third-round pick Davion Taylor out of Colorado is the one to watch. He’s a little undersized but showed good athletic measurables with a 4.49 40-yard dash and a 6.93 three-cone drill. He’s raw and has lots of upside, but the talent ahead of him shouldn’t be a roadblock to meaningful work.
Micah Kiser, LB LAR
The Rams had Kiser pegged as a starter last season, but a preseason pectoral injury ended the year before it began. The departure of Cory Littelton all but locks in Kiser as the man in the middle for the Rams this year.
Currently ranked as DLF’s LB79, he has nothing but upside at that number. The last two years saw Littleton finish as a top-five fantasy option at the position, and three years ago, Alec Ogletree was 24th. The Ram’s top middle linebacker has been a fantasy producer, and this year it looks like it’s Kiser’s job to lose.
Cody Barton, LB SEA
Unlike Kiser, a slept on starter, Seattle’s Barton is a bench player who could blow up if he gets an opportunity. Prior to the NFL draft, ESPN’s Mike Clay had Barton in a reserve role finishing the year as LB48. Once they drafted Jordyn Brooks and traded for Jamal Adams, Clay bumped Barton down to LB94.
If Bobby Wagner or KJ Wright miss any time, I don’t see the team turning to the rookie Brooks to fill that void. Early in camp, Brooks has been part of the team’s base nickel package. If Brooks has a defined role with the team early, that benefits Barton as they’re less likely to move Brooks into another role, then backfill Brooks’ vacated role, when they can simply plug Barton in.
The Seahawks’ top-two ‘backers have averaged 142 and 106 tackles over the last five seasons. If Barton is thrust into the starting lineup, six or seven tackles per game aren’t out of the question and would make him a top-24 linebacker for fantasy.
Honorable LB Mentions: Joe Thomas, LB DAL, Barkevious Mingo LB CHI, Oren Burks, LB GB
Defensive Backs
Siran Neal, S BUF
Buffalo has arguably one of the league’s top safety duos in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. They’re both on the field a ton, with Poyer and Hyde on the field for 94% and 93% of the team’s defensive snaps. A fifth-round pick in 2018, Siran Neal saw the third-most snaps at safety, with 17% of the defensive snaps played.
The Bills base defense is a five defensive back “Big Nickel” set up, and as of this writing, Neal looks to be locked into that fifth-DB role. However, should either starting safety miss time (but especially Poyer), Neal is likely the player most likely to see his snaps and opportunities increase dramatically.
Statistics from Football Outsiders.
Eric Murray, S HOU
One of the more surprising moves in free agency this year was Houston’s signing of safety Murray. He was given a three-year deal worth $18-million. I guess given the history of Houston’s front office, this shouldn’t be so surprising, but here we are.
Murray has played for three teams over his four-year career. He’s appeared in the 54 games, but only 15 starts and has never been a consistent NFL starter. Murray was brought in to fill the void left with the departure of Tashaun Gipson.
Unlike everyone else on this list, Murray looks to be a starter, but he is off the radar for many. Given his shaky history, I look for opposing offensive coordinators to target Murray’s part of the field early, which could be useful for fantasy.
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S NO
Coming out of Florida last year, I was very high on Gardner-Johnson. He can play strong safety and nickel corner and saw his snap count slowly tick upwards as his rookie campaign went on. He saw 51% of defensive snaps on the year, but that number was over 70% in five of the team’s last seven games.
Should Marcus Williams or the 32-year old Malcolm Jenkins miss any time at safety, Gardner-Johnson can plug right in. If PJ Williams (who I think is one of the worst defenders in the NFL) misses time or regresses at the nickel corner, Gardner-Johnson can plug right in. He played well when given the opportunity, and is in-line to take the next step forward.
Honorable DB Mentions: Will Harris, S DET, Damon Arnette, CB LVR
With defensive rotations, many back-ups end up seeing significant snaps even if they aren’t “starters” in name. The depth can help – and hurt – you in IDP leagues. Hopefully, several of these options above can return value as backups and be potential league winners if they see an uptick in snaps and counting stats.
This series has been fun to write. Hopefully, you can grab several of these players off of waivers to stash on your bench and plug into your lineups to help you win a few weekly matchups throughout what is sure to be a wacky, wild, and unpredictable 2020 season.
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