Dynasty Grenades: Wide Receivers
When thinking about handling a grenade one, thought comes immediately to mind: get rid of it before it goes off.
The concept of this article, and this series, is simple, but I am a simple man and I have simple thoughts. Who are the players you need to move on from prior to their dynasty value imploding? These are players you should trade away before their value goes boom.
I should note, this is strictly a value proposition, not a production one. The players I will advocate trading away could have multiple years of production left in their fantasy careers, but that doesn’t mean their trade value will remain at their current levels, let alone ever increase. The community is already too low on one on these players, while the other is one I can see having the bottom fall out on his production, which would cause their value to explode (in a bad way).
Robert Woods, WR LAR
Woods might in fact be the true love of my life. I roster him in a plurality of my dynasty leagues. Most times when I’m offered Woods in a trade, I can’t help but accept the offer. I love that he keeps producing as no worse than a WR2 but is drafted as a WR3 – well, except for 2019. Woods was drafted as a low-end WR2 (23.6) garnering some respect but still produced as WR1. And how has the fantasy community reacted to his WR1 finish in 2019? By drafting him as a…WR3 with a positional ADP of 28.6 in 2020.
It’s apparent that nothing Woods has done or will do is going to bolster his value in the dynasty communities’ eyes. So what might happen if Woods were to actually have a down season? His value would plummet like a rock in the ocean.
There’s the distinct possibility that the Rams will need to move on from Woods, no matter his performance in 2020. He carries a cap hit of a little over $10 million if he’s on the roster come 2021 but the dead cap hit is just $1.77 million if released, per Spotrac.
While his salary isn’t exorbitant, the Rams’ cap management, or lack thereof, has made his relatively modest salary seem so and leaving him vulnerable to being cut, based on the Rams 2021 cap figure. They have $918,135 in available cap space for the 2021 season and something is going to have to give if they want to sign any of their 2021 rookies, let alone any free agents.
Our Dynasty Trade Finder tool gives a couple of intriguing templates for trades you can make in your leagues.
Getting DeAndre Hopkins, a perennial top-six scoring wide receiver for Woods and Darren Waller is a move I’d make as is getting Davante Adams for Woods and James Conner. Woods has produced year over year, and the dynasty community doesn’t seem to care. Even if he produces at his usual level in 2020, his ADP and trade value will still decrease come the off-season if the past is any indication. His value could fall further if forced to find a new home in 2021 when he’ll play the season in his age-29 season.
Tyler Boyd, WR CIN
My issue with Boyd stems from his inefficiency. Last year Boyd ranked 65th at the wide receiver position in fantasy points per target, per Fantasydata.com. His 148 targets were seventh-most in the league but he could only muster a WR27 finish. That’s not great.
In 2018 he turned the 21st most targets into a WR20 finish, which is fine, but that’s all it is – just fine. His 2016 and 2017 seasons led most to label Boyd a bust prior to the 2018 season.
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
Boyd’s track record is two disappointing seasons, another where he produced at a level commensurate with his usage and another where he was an efficiency nightmare. That’s not a stellar track record.
If we could assume Boyd would continue to be targeted at a top-20 rate then perhaps my concerns would be overblown, but AJ Green will return after missing the entirety of the 2019 season with an ankle injury.
John Ross is seemingly healthy after playing just eight games last season, though he is currently away from the team while caring for his son and son’s mother who both have COVID-19. Ross has had a checkered first three seasons in the NFL, but you can’t ignore the type of weapon he is when heavily targeted as he was in weeks one and two last year. Over the first two weeks, Ross was targeted 20 times for 11 receptions 270 yards and three touchdowns.
Rookie Tee Higgins will surely also see some targets, further diminishing Boyd’s market share. Any decrease in targets to Boyd’s share will surely affect his fantasy scoring since he’s scoring is so closely tied to his targets (as opposed to more efficient receivers).
When thinking of offers you can formulate to offer Boyd to other owners in your league I again suggest using the Dynasty Trade Finder tool.
Above is a sampling of the trades including Boyd over the past month in leagues hosted by the My Fantasy League platform. I’m a fan of trade three and trade seven. Getting Preston Williams and a first, or Stefon Diggs back would both be excellent returns when trading away Boyd.
While these are two wide receivers I’d look to move on from before they explode in your hands, that’s not the end. Next time I’ll advise you which running backs are ready to see their value blow up too.
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