Breakout or Fakeout: Jonnu Smith

In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout‘ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets? Or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…

The Tennessee Titans are one of the more intriguing offenses in the league heading into the 2020 season. While there was consistent mediocrity and disappointment with Marcus Mariota at the helm, Ryan Tannehill taking over led to one of the most efficient offenses in the league on the way to a playoff run. Of course, the team rekindled memories of the Mularkey “exotic smashmouth” with a rejuvenated, efficient smashmouth on the shoulders of workhorse Derrick Henry.

With AJ Brown propelling his way into the WR1 chair by way of chunk play after chunk play, this may open up more balance among pass catches as defensive attention is taken away from former fifth overall selection Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries working as a reliable slot target. The ultimate ascendency of the offense may rest on the continued progression of young tight end Jonnu Smith.

(As a note: Smith was covered by fellow DLF writer Jeff Smith’s Late Round Bargain Bin Hunting: Tight End Edition article earlier this month. While some athleticism and initial production metrics will be repeated here, this article entails an even deeper dive into Smith specifically.)

After being drafted by the Titans in the third round of the 2017 draft, Smith has yet to have an opportunity at the starting tight end role entering a season. Despite tolling his fourth NFL season, he has yet to turn 25 years old. His annual limited role behind mainstay ironman, Delanie Walker suggest that we should still consider Smith’s prospect profile first.

A dominant college producer coming out of Florida International University (FIU), Smith broke out as a true freshman at an astonishing 18.0 years old, which tops out at the 100th percentile among college tight ends. He amassed 178 catches for 2,001 yards and 18 touchdowns across his four years at FIU. During his sophomore year in particular, Smith dominated with 61 receptions, 710 yards, and eight touchdowns.

Data from sports-reference.com.

His 33.0% college dominator rating (92nd percentile) provides another indication of his success amongst tight end peers. Further, he ranked second in the PFF College-era (since 2014) in career missed tackles forced per reception (0.31), per PFF College.

Utilizing the DLF College Market Share app, you can see how strongly Smith profiles versus the baseline for receiving tight ends in college. Additionally, compared to many of the tight ends frequently ranked and drafted above him, he outproduced names like Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, TJ Hockenson, especially at an early age.

At the NFL Scouting Combine, Smith showed elite athleticism. Measuring six-foot-three and weighing 248 pounds, Smith is a tad undersized. However, he makes up for this with his speed and burst. He ran a 4.62-second 40-yard dash (83rd percentile), which at his size accounted for a 106.9 (84th percentile) speed score. He displayed excellent burst with a 94th percentile burst score (combination of vertical and broad jumps). The only metric that was below average was his 11.61 (46th percentile) agility score. This workout profile resulted in a 127.0 (93rd percentile) SPARQ-x score indicating he more than makes up for his slightly shorter stature.

So, what has Smith done thus far in the NFL? Well, not much in terms of overall counting statistics. He has succeeded more as a DFS option for brief stretches in weeks where Walker has been injured. He has seen an increase in receptions, receiving yards, yards per reception, yards per target, first downs, and catch percentage in each of his first three years in the league. In 2019 specifically, Smith collected 35 receptions (26th among tight ends) on 45 targets (31st) for 439 yards (19th) and three touchdowns (t-19th).

Data from Pro Football Reference.

It has been well documented that the learning curve for tight ends is difficult, as they have to learn blocking and route running technique. This transition may be especially impeding for one leveling up in competition from Florida International University to the NFL.

Will he finally break out or are the expectations destined to merely be a fakeout?

The case for a Breakout

While the yearly totals may suggest such a development period, Smith has shined in every afforded opportunity without veteran-presence Walker. Let’s look beyond production to efficiency metrics. Oh boy, does this tell a story that we’ve heard before. Remember Smith ranking second in the PFF College era in missed tackles forced per reception? Well, since entering the NFL, Smith ranks first (0.28), ahead of George Kittle, Travis Kelce etc.

Let’s take a deep dive into Smith’s 2019 season. Despite being afforded just 45 targets in 2019 (31st among tight ends), Smith ranked third in missed tackles forced with 14, behind only Kittle, (20) and Kelce (15), per PFF. This is an even more astounding feat when accounting for the limited receptions Smith received (35) compared with Kittle (85) and Kelce (97).

Among tight ends last season, Smith’s 12.5 yards per reception ranked eighth, his 9.8 yards per target ranked second, and his 77.8% catch rate ranked fourth. Also, for the separation enthusiasts, Smith’s 2.41 average yards of separation at the moment of target arrival ranked second among tight ends, despite Blake Hampton of FTN Fantasy using data to indicate the insignificance of separation on fantasy points scored. Finally, again among tight ends, Smith’s 277 yards after the catch were good enough for eighth and his 2.33 fantasy points per target ranked third.

To further solidify how efficient Smith was in 2019,  his 6.2 yards after catch per target and 7.9 yards after the catch per reception ranked first and second, respectively, among qualified tight ends. Is it hot in here or what?

With Walker now moving on from Tennessee, Smith will receive his awaited opportunity to enter the season atop of the depth chart. While the team is still adjusting (quite well) to Tannehill under center, some important continuity for Smith exists among the coaching staff. Particularly, former Tennessee tight ends coach, Arthur Smith, took over the offensive coordinator role at the start of the 2019 season following Matt LaFleur’s departure. OC Smith has been with the young tight end since he entered the league.

While Smith may not have been a reliable starter to this point, he is bursting with breakout potential on one of the league’s most efficient offenses. With Henry’s recent contract extension, the narrative of “running him into the ground” may now fizzle away. On the contrary, you can easily see how the team may want to protect such an asset and shift toward higher passing volume.

The case for a Fakeout

On the contrary to the discussion above, there are certainly factors working against Smith rising to be considering a top tight end.

Entrenched in a ground-game focused offensive attack, there is certainly a risk that an increased role in the offense will still not produce the necessary volume to truly breakout. Tennessee ranked 31st in pass attempts last season with just 448. Additionally, the sustainability of the offensive efficiency will most certainly decline, as Tannehill (201/286, 70.3% completion, 2,742 yards, 22 TDs in 12 games) produced an astounding, league-leading 9.7 yards per attempt. The pass-catchers were some of the most efficient in the league, collecting 3,582 yards (21st-ranked) despite the aforementioned 448 (31st-ranked) pass attempts.

Smith’s tremendous efficiency metrics presented in the table above contributed to this, which may (and likely will) decline to some degree with increased volume. With prior fantasy points being the single greatest predictor of future fantasy points, Smith’s totals his first three years may not make you optimistic by that linear model.

Additionally, it is fair to question where Smith lands on the Tennessee totem pole with competition from Brown, Davis, Humphries, and even out of the backfield Henry and rookie Darrynton Evans.

Also, while Smith has clearly assumed the top spot on the tight end depth chart, he may face some shared workload from other competition, including Anthony Firkser and MyCole Pruitt. These may not be terrifying options as they have shown to be role players. Nonetheless, any increased usage from these other minimal contributors could limit Smith’s overall production.

Conclusion

Still just 24 years old at the beginning of the 2020 season, Smith has flashed what any dynasty owner could ask for from a young tight end in limited opportunity. The expectation is that his time has arrived, as he is set up to assume a prominent role as a cog in the efficient Titans offense. At a DLF July ADP of 127.33, he is on the rise from his June ADP of 143.50. However, positionally, each of these placed him at TE16.

While this is the highest monthly ADP of Smith’s young career, he remains an affordable upside shot to take in drafts if you don’t get (or want to build your roster around) one the of top tier of tight ends. It would not be shocking for Smith to be widely viewed as a top-six dynasty tight end at the conclusion of the 2020 season, landing near the top of the group behind Kittle, Kelce, and Andrews. His age, athleticism, and efficiency scream for increased opportunity. He has produced in every one of his opportunities from college to Walker-less weeks in the NFL. Now is your chance to hop aboard the rocket ship before he blasts off.

Verdict: Breakout

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Jeremy Schwob

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Jeremy is a doctoral student in clinical psychology at Penn State. He is an avid fan of St. Louis sports and the Dayton Flyers. You can find him advocating for wide receivers and pushing that value is misused as fact on Twitter.

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