IDP Studs, Values and Sleepers: NFC East
Whether you are drafting in a dynasty startup, sending out trade feelers, or churning the bottom of your roster, it’s always a good idea to look over each team’s depth chart and identifying your studs, values, and sleepers. I’m particularly interested to hear who your sleeper picks are – chime in below in the comments section!
Dallas Cowboys
Stud – Jaylon Smith, LB
Leighton Vander Esch truthers, unite against me. I’m going with Smith. A devastating knee injury during Smith’s final collegiate game at Notre Dame is well-documented, but he made a complete recovery and has been one of the NFL’s top off-ball linebackers for two consecutive seasons (121 total tackles in 2018, and 140 in 2019). He’ll be moving in 2020 from the middle to the weak side, where the defense should funnel more tackles his way.
Though just 25-years-old, his new six-year contract is a bit worrisome – after 2021, his cap hit and dead cap numbers work in favor of a team out if Smith doesn’t keep producing at an elite level.
A stud in his own right, Vander Esch has a neck condition that has me worried enough to go with Smith here. Here’s hoping off-season neck surgery does the trick for Vander Esch, but color me concerned for his future.
Value – DeMarcus Lawrence, DE
Lawrence might have been listed in the above stud category one season ago. Coming off top-five fantasy defensive end seasons in 2017 (58 total tackles, 15 sacks) and 2018 (63 total tackles, 10.5 sacks), Lawrence slipped in the production department last season, logging just 29 quarterback pressures. So what happened? Did he coast after signing a new five-year deal prior to the season that included $65 million guaranteed? Was it a statistical aberration? Did lingering injuries after off-season shoulder surgery impact his play?
Whatever the reason, I’m still betting on this stud talent who is still in his prime at 28 years old. In a 14-team startup draft in June, I snagged him as the 11th defensive end off the board in the 13th round – four rounds after Maxx Crosby, Josh Allen, Sam Hubbard, and Frank Clark. “Tank” has just as much if not more upside than any of those, making him a value.
Sleeper – Bradlee Anae, DE
The Cowboys are desperate for anyone to step up on the other side of Lawrence, and fifth-round pick Anae may fit the bill. You have to love a guy who gives 100 percent on every snap and is good at what he does: getting to the quarterback. He did it successfully 30 times in his four seasons at Utah. He’s a short-armed and his combine numbers were not very good, so don’t expect a future Pro Bowler – just a late-round flier who has little between him and starting defensive end snaps.
New York Giants
Stud – Blake Martinez, LB
Coming over from Green Bay on what is essentially a two-year deal, Martinez brings three consecutive seasons of high LB1 fantasy production to a Giants team that needed a reliable signal-caller. There’s no reason to think he won’t keep racking up the tackles, both against the run and the pass, for Big Blue.
He was targeted a ton in zone coverage last season – Pro Football Reference lists him with surrendering 62 completions on 74 targets – but that just led to more tackles. I don’t think you’re going to see Martinez playing at a high level when he’s the age of Bobby Wagner and Demario Davis, but he’s great for now, so enjoy it while it lasts!
Value – Xavier McKinney, S
McKinney was such a good player at Alabama. Showing great versatility, the number 36 overall pick played both safety spots and in the slot. He’s not a top-notch athlete though and lacks great speed (4.63-second 40-yard dash at the combine), limiting him on the back end.
My guess is that he and Jabrill Peppers will be used interchangeably to disguise coverage, and he’ll play closer to the line a lot more than most people are anticipating. I think he’s quite a bit more valuable than where our DLF IDP rankers have him: the 26th dynasty defensive back. Both Peppers and Antoine Bethea produced at a DB1 level in 2019. Can it happen again?
Sleeper – Ryan Connelly, LB
Connelly had a promising start to his NFL career in 2019 but tore his right ACL in a week four game in which he put up five tackles, a sack and an interception. With good speed and athleticism, the fifth-rounder was an early-season surprise, tallying 84 percent of defensive tackles in week two and 92 percent in week three.
He walked on at Wisconsin as a quarterback and ended up starting three years as an inside linebacker – that says something to me about his work ethic and ability. Journeyman David Mayo had a nice season for the Giants in 2019 and is currently listed as the “other” inside linebacker starting next to Martinez, but I’m not buying his staying power.
Connelly is a bit forgotten due to the early-season injury. He should beat out Mayo once he’s back to full health and provide a valuable depth piece – and serve as a fantasy starter should Martinez miss time.
Philadelphia Eagles
Stud – Derek Barnett, DE
Although Philadelphia has a solid defense, the truth is that it’s pretty tough to pick a fantasy stud here. This is a bit of a projection pick, but I think this could be the year for the Derek Barnett breakout. He’s always shown that elite skill to bend the edge. Now entering his fourth year, I’m counting on some continued added strength with his push.
That, combined with the addition of Darius Slay at corner and Javon Hargrave providing an additional quality pass rusher from the inside, will hopefully provide Barnett with an extra beat to convert more of those quarterback knockdowns – he was seventh in the NFL last season with 15 hits that knocked the quarterback to the ground after the throw – into sacks in 2020.
Don’t go overboard trying to acquire Barnett, because I’m not going to be surprised if it doesn’t happen. He has to clean up the penalties – he was flagged ten times in 2019 – and we need to see the Eagles run less of a rotation on the edge. Barnett played 69.1 percent of defensive snaps in 2019; it would be nice to see that number climb to 75 percent.
The team recently re-signed depth rusher Vinny Curry, and have talked about running some three tackle fronts with Malik Jackson moving to the edge in a four-man front, so there’s not great news on that front. Still, low DE1 potential is there for Barnett, and he’s just 24 years old, so he’s worth trade feelers and snapping up as your DE2 or DE3 in startups.
Value – Nate Gerry, LB
The Eagles’ linebacker corps is not inspiring. I was able to rely upon Nigel Bradham for cheap LB3 production in deep leagues for several seasons, but the Eagles moved on from him in the off-season and left us with the likes of Nate Gerry, slow-as-molasses sophomore TJ Edwards, and a couple of rookies in Davion Taylor (more on him below) and Shaun Bradley. I can’t say I’m 100 percent with this pick, but Gerry looks like the odds-on favorite to lead this group in snaps.
In 2019, following Zach Brown’s post-week six release, Gerry – a converted Nebraska safety entering his fourth year – played nearly 100 percent of defensive snaps when Bradham was out. Opportunity leads to production (at least most of the time), and someone has to lead this team in tackles. Let’s see if the practically free Gerry can take advantage of his opportunity in 2020.
Sleeper – Davion Taylor, LB
Rookie linebacker Taylor definitely has an interesting backstory and non-traditional path to the NFL. I won’t rehash his story (just google Davion Taylor high school football), but it explains a lot of what you see from the player, even on his highlight reel from Colorado. There you’ll see a player that sometimes doesn’t seem to know what’s going on (particularly when playing on the line), but once he finds the ball, he’s a heat-seeking missile to it.
As expected, he’s raw due to lack of experience. And, as expected from watching him play, his combine numbers show an NFL-caliber athlete.
That he was selected in the third round of the NFL Draft speaks volumes about how the Eagles view his potential upside, and quite frankly in the long-term there’s just not much standing between him and a three-down linebacker role.
While Nate Gerry is the value pick for this article, I’m not sold on his staying power as an every-down player. Should Taylor be able to elevate his mental understanding of the game to match his athleticism, he’ll be a valuable dynasty asset. He’s a nice stash on a taxi squad for now – just don’t expect much in 2020.
Washington Football Team
Stud – Chase Young, DE
There are only two teams on which I’d tab a rookie as the IDP stud, and Washington is one (Baltimore is the other). Young, arguably the best overall player available in the NFL Draft, should be a force as a pass-rusher from day one. I expect the number two overall pick to rotate at 4-3 defensive end with forever underrated veteran Ryan Kerrigan and sophomore Montez Sweat, a first-round pick just a year ago.
Young is just too good not to be productive, and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will be able to get Young in plenty of one-on-one matchups. Enjoy many years of high DE1 numbers if you have shares of Young.
Landon Collins is a stud as well – I have him as my number three fantasy safety – but Young is the more valuable asset in almost all leagues due to his position and his All-Pro upside.
Value – Cole Holcomb, LB
It pains me to say it as an N.C. State alum and fan, but former North Carolina Tar Heel Holcomb is in a great spot to get a chance to stick next to Jon Bostic and Thomas Davis in this lineup. Holcomb is known in IDP circles, but the depth chart looks crowded with Reuben Foster and Shaun Dion Hamilton also vying for opportunity. That’s holding Holcomb back on linebacker lists – our own DLF IDP team has a composite ranking of 67 on him – and creating a value for you.
In 12-team, tackle-heavy formats he produced as a low-end LB3 in his rookie season playing the WILL and leading the linebackers in solo tackles. With Davis in the fold, Holcomb may slide over to the strong side while he gains experience and quickens up his reads, but he has the athleticism (see his Pro Day results) to move back to the weak side in 2021 if the 37-year-old Davis ever begins to show his age. Or, Holcomb may just stay at WILL with Bostic or Foster and Davis filling the MIKE and SAM roles.
If you haven’t stashed Holcomb yet, be patient. The ultimate dynasty value could come during the season if he does indeed play SAM and his tackles dip. Just in case he stays at the WILL, though, you should see if you can get him now for an LB5 price.
Sleeper – James Smith-Williams, DE
Sadly there’s not much in the way of dynasty sleepers here. Since I feel filthy about talking up Cole Holcomb, I’ll remind you that Smith-Williams, a seventh-round pick out of N.C. State, was listed at number three in Bruce Feldman’s college football “Freaks List” for 2019. He’s just a name to keep in the back of your mind if he sticks in the NFL and gets an opportunity somewhere down the line.
Although an injury-plagued senior season with the Wolfpack ruined what might have been a nice follow-up to a solid junior campaign, he has the build, strength, work ethic and smarts to surprise if he refines his game.
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