IDP Studs, Values and Sleepers: AFC East
Whether you are drafting in a dynasty startup, sending out trade feelers, or churning the bottom of your roster, it’s always a good idea to look over each team’s depth chart and identifying your studs, values, and sleepers.
Here, we cover the AFC East…
Buffalo Bills
The Bills were one of the best defenses in the NFL last year and arguably one of the top units of the last decade. If their offense was anywhere near as good, they’d be Super Bowl favorites.
Stud – Tremaine Edmunds, LB
He’s never quite proved it on the field but he’s not 23 until next May. He has some flaws he needs to clean up as an NFL player (he really is not a top coverage player) but as an IDP asset, he has everything he needs to be an elite producer. He was a top 12 LB as a rookie in 2018 and he can easily hit those heights again.
Value – Matt Milano, LB
Edmunds is the likely top LB on this team, but Milano is not far behind. He’s the better coverage player (which is better for IDP points) and a clear every-down player.
Milano could well end up being the better performer with a little luck and he’s way more affordable.
Sleeper – Jerry Hughes, DE
Hughes remains a very good pass rusher. Over the past two seasons, he has amassed 122 pressures, good for 14th most in the NFL. This puts him ahead of DeMarcus Lawrence, Cameron Heyward, Chandler Jones and Yannick Ngakoue.
Now admittedly he has just 12 sacks (58 payers have more) but he’s been written off in IDP value terms. He is well worth a gamble for what he costs now.
Fade – Ed Oliver, DT
Oliver came into the NFL with such hype he could never live up to it. His 29 pressures (39th among interior linemen) were perfectly acceptable.
But the hype still lingers as it tends to for players drafted so early. He’ll be selected as a top 12 interior lineman in any draft you may be in. And in dynasty, he’s likely owned by someone who overinvested in him a year ago – and is convinced he’s about to break out.
Either way, he’s not worth the investment.
Miami Dolphins
The 2019 Dolphins defense was one of the very worst of the last decade. We need to see significant improvement in every single facet of play just to be acceptably poor in 2020.
Stud – Christian Wilkins, DT
Stud is a stretch. But Wilkins played over 700 snaps as a rookie and finished 15th among interior linemen in solo tackles. Of course, the Dolphins getting run all over contributed to that. He does have a chance of finishing as a top 12 DT – but his pass rush prowess needs to increase to generate any sort of payback.
Value – Jerome Baker, LB
Baker was pretty rough in 2019, just like every other Dolphin. But he does have a solid hold of the single Dolphins LB role that can be expected to provide IDP production. Baker is a top 36 IDP LB and he can sneak into the top half of that with some luck.
Sleeper – Eric Rowe, S
The Dolphins are likely to use multiple safeties in 2020 – just like they did last season. They often used them as orthodox OLBs right up on the line of scrimmage.
Eric Rowe was a corner a year ago, but he did play better as a safety – and with Xavien Howard, Byron Jones and Noah Igbinoghene onboard he’s unlikely to play corner again. He’s a gamble for deep leagues only (13+ starters and 60+ rosters).
Fade – Kyle Van Noy, LB
Many will tell you Van Noy is a “hybrid” LB/edge player. That’s not true. He was pressed into duty playing inside in 2018 with injuries, but he spent the whole of 2019 in his natural position on the edge. He’s very likely to do the same in Miami. He has too much name recognition for his likely production.
Fade – Raekwon McMillan, LB
McMillan is not and is unlikely to ever be good enough in coverage to be a three-down linebacker. Let him be someone else’s mistake.
New England Patriots
Like the Bills, the 2019 Patriots were one of the best defenses of the past ten years. It was incredible to have such concentrated greatness in a single division. Or maybe the competition caused them to excel. The Patriots are also one of the more innovative defenses in the NFL so projecting them is hard.
Stud – Adrian Phillips, S
COVID-19 opt-outs have hit New England hard. And by default, Phillips is now the go-to box safety on the team. Moving safeties around is the hallmark of this defense so he’s likely to be used a lot close to the line of scrimmage – maybe even as a de facto linebacker.
At time of writing Phillips holds a safety designation on MFL and with no pre-season, this is unlikely to change. He is a potential cheat code this year.
Value – Ja’Whaun Bentley, LB
Similarly, Bentley is the default top LB on the Patriots – at least until Belichick surprises us. He needs to show a significant improvement in coverage ability to be a three-down player and given his popularity the value may well dissipate, but right now he looks like a good option.
Sleeper – Lawrence Guy, DT
Scoring is paramount here. Tackles like Guy who play “sides” (i.e. no dedicated nose tackle or undertackle – it varies depending on alignment) tend to be very good in leagues with high tackle scoring for interior players. But he will likely not return enough pass rush to make him valuable in other leagues.
Fade – Chase Winovich, DE
Winovich thrilled people with his rookie production but it comes with a red flag given his over-efficiency. He managed seven sacks from just 23 pressures.
Since 2009, 655 players have managed seven or more sacks in a season. Just 24 of those had 23 or fewer pressures. That’s 3.6%. Winovich was a major outlier.
It’s likely Winovich plays more in 2020, but he’s not guaranteed to play enough to make him reliably useful. John Simon is a good player and a direct competitor for playing time.
New York Jets
The Jets lacked talent defensively in 2019 but still managed to play relatively well. This seems to be attributable to the excellent coaching – hopefully at least. Because they lack talent again in 2020.
Stud – Avery Williamson, LB
Stud – Blake Cashman, LB
Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has a strong history of riding his two inside LBs hard. The starters will play every snap they can for him. With CJ Mosley sitting the season out, Williamson and Cashman are the top options and much better than the group of replacement-level options behind them. Either or both of these should be considered potential top-24 LBs.
Value – Bradley McDougald, S
Losing a player of the caliber of Jamal Adams is never a good thing. But McDougald has been a good NFL player for most of his career and could be considered the best player on this Jets defense (which is terrifying).
Sleeper – Henry Anderson, DE
There’s a lot of confusion about the Jets defense. Gregg Williams made some comments when he joined the team about retaining Todd Bowles’ 3-4 defense which seem to have stayed in people’s minds. But make no mistake – this defense is a base 4-3 defense. In it, Henry Anderson is an edge player.
In his five years as a pro, he’s only rushed the passer 300 or more times, and only reached 30 pressures in that season (2018) so he’s by no means a slam dunk. But he may still be the best edge player and the best pass rusher on this team.
Fade – Quinnen Williams, DT
Williams was vastly overrated in rookie drafts back in 2019 given his real-life draft stock. The fact that he played so poorly as a rookie compounded that, but it was always unlikely he’d pay back dynasty investment.
Hopefully he does show significant improvement for 2020. But his return of 19 pressures (with three sacks) from 349 pass-rush snaps was just nowhere near good enough and until he shows that improvement he’s an overhyped, low-impact player who is not worth the investment needed in him.
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