2020 Summer Sleeper: New York Jets

Frank Gruber

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

Opportunity reigns for fantasy running backs. So while the 2019 New York Jets finished dead last in the NFL in total yards (gaining fewer than half as many as league-leading Dallas), 27-year old Le’Veon Bell was still able to put together a top 16 positional finish.

The subject of this article is the player expected to win the backup job behind Bell, an inexpensive rookie who – at first glance – seems average. But there is more below the surface…

Lamical Perine, RB

Category: Sleeper

THE PLAYER

The Jets used a fourth-round pick to add Lamical Perine to their backfield. He is a player who may not impress in any particular category or with a specific trait.

Listed at 5’11” and 216 pounds, his BMI is average among historical NFL running back prospects. His combine athletic testing, including a pedestrian 4.62-second 40-yard dash, is in the 60th historical percentile. He was never a workhorse in college. He only carried the ball 132 times as a senior.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

But Perine is a special asset as a receiver. His 72 career receptions, including 40 grabs as a senior, create a target share metric in the top 15 percent of NFL running back prospects.

In fact, only two SEC players in the last ten years have caught 40 or more passes with Perine’s rushing workload. You may have heard of the other. He is a hot commodity these days.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

Some of this versatility is shown on this play. The throw and catch are routine enough. What is special is Perine’s alignment. Florida splits him outside the numbers to take advantage of his receiving ability. He makes the catch, takes advantage of the cushion, easily sheds a tackle and scores.

As a runner, he shows enough speed to break off long plays despite his slow 40-yard dash time. Here he also exhibits balance and strength at initial contact.

He shows adequate speed here, as well.

Perine is a tough runner who does not go down easily or without a fight.

In other words, Perine is a PPR asset, and do not get caught up on his 40-yard time.

THE SITUATION

The Jets were a bad offensive team in 2019. No team gained fewer yards and only one (Miami) had fewer rushing yards. But savvy dynasty players know receptions are more valuable than carries. They produce roughly three times more points on a per-touch basis. So while Bell’s 789 rushing yards ranked 24th in the league, he finished as RB16 on the year despite playing in 15 games. How? He was targeted 78 times and produced a receiving line of 66-461-1. His 78 targets were the seventh-most among running backs.

The DLF Percentage Player Points App displays how fantasy points are earned for one or more players over a period of time. It is useful for visualizing how a player’s fantasy points are generated.

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This helps to visualize the role of receiving in Bell’s production.

Further, hardly any of his points came from touchdowns. This makes sense given the Jets’ poor offense and 7-9 record. And it is a good thing.

If the Jets improve, more touchdowns will be available for their players. This suggests a baseline level of sustainable production with upside should the team’s productivity increase. Additionally, the Jets do not use a goal-line vulture back, nor is Sam Darnold a serious threat with three rushing touchdowns in 26 career games. The team’s lead back should get most of its rushing production.

Perine should eventually earn the RB2 spot. The other backs on the roster are 37-year old Frank Gore, Kenneth Dixon, and Josh Adams.

THE COST

In July DLF Dynasty ADP, Perine has a value of 189. This puts him between David Njoku and Tom Brady in 1QB leagues as RB68, suggesting it takes roughly a 16th-round startup pick to land him. In superflex, he falls to 236 per July DLF Superflex ADP between quarterback Jacob Eason and Carlos Hyde.

DLF rookie ADP in 1QB leagues has Perine as the 39th player off the board, or an early fourth-round pick, between wide receivers Donovan Peoples-Jones and Quintez Cephus. In superflex, he is rookie number 41.

THE CONCLUSION

On paper, Perine does not appear special. His college production and combine numbers are average. His fourth-round NFL draft capital is solid, though not compared to the top backs of the class. Some dynasty players will overlook him after he landed on a bad Jets squad. But upon closer inspection, Perine possesses an intriguing combination of traits, situation and cost that make him one of my favorite sleepers this season.

In rookie drafts, he is being selected a full round after dart throws with similar draft capital such as Anthony McFarland and Joshua Kelley. Meanwhile, he possesses superior upside to players around him such as Quintez Cephus, Devin Asiasi and Josiah Deguara.

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