IDP Studs, Values and Sleepers: AFC South

Jason King

Whether you are drafting in a dynasty startup, sending out trade feelers, or churning the bottom of your roster, it’s always a good idea to look over each team’s depth chart and identifying your studs, values, and sleepers. I’m particularly interested to hear who your sleeper picks are – chime in below in the comments section!

Houston Texans

Stud – Zach Cunningham, LB

As odd as it seems to not have JJ Watt in this spot, Cunningham truly broke out in the second half of 2019. The fourth-year linebacker was credited by MFL with 143 tackles – 100 solo – for the season, and in tackle-heavy scoring formats was likely your league’s top-scoring IDP from weeks 11-16. He rarely came off the field during that stretch, playing at least 98 percent of the Texans’ defensive snaps in five of those weeks.

While he’s not the defensive play-caller  – that’s the job of the slower Bernardrick McKinney – 25-year-old Cunningham brings speed, elite ball pursuit skills, and a hard-hitting mentality. He’s also a former second-round draft pick and due a big payday soon as he’s entering the final year of his rookie deal.

Watt still produces at an elite level when healthy, however his health has been a thorn in the side of his IDP owners in three of the past four seasons. Even at 31 years old with major injury concerns, Watt’s upside is so high that I am still willing to pay a decent price on contending teams, but as I’ve heard former NFL offensive lineman Ross Tucker say many times on his various podcasts, you never hear anyone say they “used” to have back problems. It’s enough for me to give the younger Cunningham the nod as the Texans’ top defensive stud in dynasty formats.

Value – Justin Reid, S

Keep your expectations in check with this value – which is slight – as Reid lacks a high ceiling due to a Texans scheme that values versatility in its safeties. Like Cunningham, Reid is a hard-hitter and reliable tackler who rarely leaves the field, and the opportunity for production combined with talent provides a path to high-DB2 upside in 12-team leagues. The Stanford product is coming off a sophomore campaign that saw his total tackles drop from 87 in 2018 to 75, however he played last season with a torn shoulder labrum. Expect a bounce-back season from a 23-year-old likely being valued as a low-end DB2.

I also considered rookie defensive tackle Ross Blacklock here for those who play in defensive tackle-premium formats, but I think he’s being snapped up appropriately in those leagues. There may be value in the near future with Blacklock if he doesn’t see the field early and often in 2020, but I think he’ll flash enough to keep most of his owners appropriately excited.

Sleeper – Charles Omenihu, DE

Defensive end Charles Omenihu is not worth a roster spot even in deep leagues right now, so this former Texas standout is just a name to keep on your radar for 2020. A fifth-round pick in the 2019 draft, Omenihu lasted later than I expected him to. His college profile showed a combination of production and versatility, along with good speed and bend, all packaged in a 6-foot-5, 280-pound frame.

He gained experience as a rookie, logging more than 500 defensive snaps, but his production – 13 total tackles, three sacks – doesn’t jump off the page. The good news is that he has reportedly spent his off-season working to add strength to better compete against the run. If he can continue to develop that aspect of his game, he’ll have future opportunity to show off those pass-rushing chops that helped him to Big XII Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2018.

Indianapolis Colts

Stud – Darius Leonard, LB

There’s not a lot anyone needs to say about Darius Leonard. In tackle-heavy scoring systems, the third-year linebacker is the number one IDP asset. In big-play formats, Leonard is likely still being valued as a top-five IDP asset. If there is a concern about his value, it revolves around the concussion he suffered in week two on a big hit against Derrick Henry. After missing three games, Leonard admitted that a three-week headache had him pondering his NFL future. He played and continued to produce at a prolific level in the final 11 games of the season, so consider the 25-year-old good to go for 2020 and beyond.

Value – Khari Willis, S

After watching some of Willis’ college highlights, I didn’t see much to convince me he was more than an NFL backup and special teams contributor. Splitting work with the oft-injured and currently unemployed Clayton Geathers, Willis shined in the tackle department when given the opportunity in 2019.

Now, the strong safety job is seemingly his for the near future as he looks to build off a rookie season that saw him finish with 71 total tackles while playing just 60.2 percent of defensive snaps. He doesn’t have a high tackle ceiling playing behind Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker and Bobby Okereke, but you don’t have to pay much for the production.

Sleeper – Bobby Okereke, LB

He’s really not much of a sleeper for people who watch the defensive side of the action, but I had to list Okereke here somewhere. The late third-round pick played less than 46 percent of defensive snaps as a rookie but flashed in a major way.

Fast and relentless, Okereke may have a shot to slide from his 2019 role as strong-side linebacker to the middle. There, he’ll have a much better shot at full-time snaps, tackle opportunities and LB2 potential. It’s probably not going to happen, as Anthony Walker is a solid MIKE who put up low-end LB2 (in 12-team leagues) numbers last season. Okereke has better play speed and much greater upside, and Walker is in the final year of his rookie contract. If it doesn’t happen this season, the MIKE job could be his in 2021. Go get him now!

Jacksonville Jaguars

Stud – Joe Schobert, LB

Say what you will about whether or not Schobert is worth the five-year, $53.75 million contract the Jaguars gave him this off-season. The fact is, he’s going to be a tackle vacuum for this team at middle linebacker, just as he has been for Cleveland since 2017, and the contract is going to keep Schobert in Duval County for at least two seasons. With good health, expect something similar to his 2019 stat line, which included 135 total tackles.

Value – Ronnie Harrison, S

In case you couldn’t tell, I keep finding myself gravitating toward moderately priced safeties with defined roles, and Ronnie Harrison fits the bill. The Alabama product is entering his third season at the age of 23. He was a solid DB2 until injuries (a neck in week eight and a concussion in week 12) wrecked his 2019 season and was seen as an emerging star for the defense after logging 48 total tackles, two interceptions, four passes defended, and two sacks in weeks one-eight. There’s no threat behind him, so if he stays healthy he’s going to play the majority of snaps as the strong safety.

Sleeper – Quincy Williams, LB

Williams’ rookie season left a lot to be desired, but I don’t think we’ve heard the last of him. He was a fairly hot commodity in IDP circles following the 2019 draft after the Jaguars made him a surprise pick toward the end of the third round. Most draftniks expected him to go undrafted; NFL Network didn’t even have video to show after he was selected.

His Murray State college tape has some pretty crazy hits though, and he closes to the ball fast. You can’t deny his desire to lay the lumber on ball carriers. He also generated a good amount of buzz during training camp until a torn meniscus in his knee and corresponding arthroscopic surgery sidelined him all of August. His Pro Day numbers – 4.59-second 40-yard dash, 39.5-inch vertical jump, 10’4″ broad jump, 4.41-second 20-yard shuttle, 7.25-second three-cone – were pretty good, so he has the athleticism to stick. Despite the disappointing rookie year, he’s worth an end-of-the-roster stash in deep leagues in tackle-heavy formats.

Tennessee Titans

Stud – Jayon Brown, LB

The Titans boast one of the best young linebacker duos in the NFL with Brown and Rashaan Evans. While Brown, a 2017 fifth-round pick, does not have the first-round draft capital of Evans, he’s the defensive stud due to his better pass coverage skills – and we all know that in today’s NFL, linebackers need to be able to cover in order to stay on the field for three downs. In fact, Pro Football Focus graded him as elite in pass coverage in each of the past two seasons.

He’s good against the run too, combining quick-to-read vision and rangy speed. Despite battling injuries and missing two games in 2019, Brown still finished with 104 total tackles. I think he’ll land in the low-end LB1 range in 12-team leagues this year, provided he stays healthy. He’s entering the final year of his rookie deal. I expect the Titans to lock him up to a long-term contract soon, solidifying his dynasty value.

Value – Jeffery Simmons, DT

The case for second-year defensive tackle Simmons is simple. He’s a first-round pick from 2019 who would have been taken earlier than number 19 overall had he not suffered a torn ACL during a February workout. After recovering from the ACL injury and returning to the field in week seven, he burst onto the scene with a sack and two tackles for loss. He went on to have a very good rookie season in a part-time role.

This off-season, the Titans abruptly traded five-time Pro-Bowler Jurrell Casey to the Broncos to clear salary cap space. Simmons’ opportunity for a workhorse role was already not far off in the future, but it’s instead here, right now. His snaps are going to increase precipitously in 2020, and it’s not a stretch to say he has immediate Pro Bowl-potential.

In leagues with starting lineups requiring a defensive tackle, or in tackle premium formats, Simmons is a great get in startups a few rounds after the established stars – Aaron Donald, DeForest Buckner, Chris Jones and Grady Jarrett – go off the board and in established leagues, you can still get him in trades. In one 32-team, double-copy, tackle premium league, for example, I traded Jones for Simmons, Nyheim Hines and a third-round rookie pick. I think as soon as this year he’ll be producing like Buckner, Jones, and Jarrett. Oh, and he’s just 23 years old!

Sleeper – Amani Hooker, S

There’s not a lot to choose from here, so I’m going with second-year safety Hooker. A young sophomore who recently turned 22, Hooker showed well at the combine and has the look of a player who has the tools but just hasn’t put it all together mentally yet. Iowa used him in both safety roles and at strong-side linebacker, so it’s possible he needs more seasoning in a more focused role.

He played 30 percent of the defensive snaps as a rookie, but will need for something to happen to Kenny Vaccaro or Kevin Byard to have value this year. Byard is not going anywhere, but looking ahead there’s starting opportunity for Hooker if he shows growth. Barring a contract restructure, Vaccaro has the look of a cap casualty after this season.

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