Late Round Bargain Hunting: Tight End Edition
This is the last of a four-part series highlighting players who may be superb values for you in the later rounds of your draft (ten or later). Do not panic if you missed out on Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Mark Andrews. There is still hope for you to build a contender.
READ: Late Round Bargain Hunting: Quarterback Edition | Late Round Bargain Hunting: Running Back Edition | Late Round Bargain Hunting: Wide Receiver Edition
Each part of the series will capture three or four players at their respective positions and detail the upside they possess to help you on your way to a title. Especially at the low, low cost of a tenth-round (or later) draft pick. Let us get started. Please note that that this data is pulled from the latest ADP startup mocks from DLF.
Hayden Hurst, TE ATL (ADP: 127.50, TE14)
After losing Austin Hooper to the Cleveland Browns, the Atlanta Falcons made a trade with the Baltimore Ravens to acquire Hurst. It is clear the Falcons like him as they gave up a second and fifth-round pick to acquire the 26-year-old tight end along with a 2020 fourth-round pick.
High-Powered Offense
The South Carolina grad is going from one of the most run-heavy offenses to the most pass-happy offenses in the league. The Ravens lead the league in percentage of rush attempts with 54.07% of their plays being run plays. The Falcons were dead last with 33.03%.
Data Courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
The inverse of this is that Atlanta led the league in pass attempts per game with 42.8 while Baltimore checked in 29th in the league with just 29.4 pass attempts per game. In total, there were 248 more attempts in Atlanta than there were in Baltimore.
Finally “The Guy”
The former Gamecock was buried on the depth chart during his brief two-year stint with the Ravens. With Mark Andrews in town, Hurst was never going to see an opportunity like he will with the Falcons. The tight ends on the official depth chart leave a lot to be desired, to say the least.
According to Ourlads, the tight ends consist of Khari Lee (seven career targets), Jaeden Graham (ten career targets), and Carson Meier (zero career targets). Also benefiting Matt Ryan’s new toy is offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s history with tight ends. Using the coaching history app from DLF, we see that a Koetter-led offense has produced a TE1 in five of the past eight seasons.
Two of the three years a TE1 was not produced, the lead tight end on the team was Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Levine Toilolo – not exactly a murderer’s row of tight ends. The third of the three seasons saw them rank just outside of the TE1 category. In 2017, Cameron Brate finished as the TE14.
Opportunity Knocks
Hurst did well in his limited opportunities in 2019. In total, he was able to haul in 30 of 39 targets for 349 yards and two touchdowns. This was all accomplished while playing just 466 snaps (41.4%) on the season. Look for the speedy tight end to improve on that number dramatically in 2020.
The 6’4” tight end made the most of his opportunities. We see using the receiving point per opportunity app from DLF that he is right up there with the big names. Falling in between George Kittle and Travis Kelce in any statistical category is worth noting.
The totals shake out as such: Kittle (2.06 PPO) Hurst (1.97 PPO), and Kelce (1.84 PPPO). The upside is there for the soon-to-be third-year tight end. Take a shot on him and do not look back. The high-powered offense and usage of the position in Atlanta make the floor low and the ceiling high.
Jonnu Smith, TE TEN (ADP: 143.50, TE16)
The likely departure of Delanie Walker could lead to the beginning of great things for Smith. Walker is a free agent and there are not any indications out there that the Tennessee Titans want to bring back the veteran tight end.
TE1 Potential
While the sample size is small looking at just 2019, you can see that Smith performed as a TE1 when Walker was not on the field. Using the player splits app at DLF, we should note that the Florida International grad was a TE12 in the nine games played without Davis.
The numbers do not look as good if we span the whole career. Keep in mind, the tight end position is one of the slowest to develop at the pro level. Still, the former FIU Panther checks in as the TE20 without his competition on the field.
Considering the youth and the competition, the numbers are still pretty solid. There is nowhere to go but up. The disappointment of Corey Davis and the lack of other receiving playmakers outside of AJ Brown makes the likelihood of usage increase even more.
College Production
Smith scored 18 touchdowns during his four-year stay in South Beach. Still only 24 when the NFL season kicks off, the future is bright for the athletic tight end. A look at the college market share app via DLF shows how good Smith was versus the baseline for receiving tight ends in college. He outproducing the likes of TJ Hockenson and Evan Engram in that category.
The signs all point to the soon-to-be fourth-year tight end producing in 2020.
Athleticism
The small school product tested well at the combine, beating out the likes of David Njoku, Evan Engram, and Gerald Everett in every category except the 40-yard dash. The 38” vertical is outstanding. A look below shows the combine numbers as well as the spider chart with the results.
Data Courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
The above spider chart is quite impressive. Smith also compares with the aforementioned Hockenson according to mockdraftable.com. The opportunity seems to be the only obstacle thus far and that outlook should change plenty for 2020.
The stars are aligned for a breakout season. Be sure not to miss the bus and grab him late in drafts. The cost is too cheap to ignore the potential. His rookie contract also expires after this season so there is a chance a new, more pass-friendly offensive home is found for next season.
Eric Ebron, TE PIT (ADP: 187.33, TE25)
It is easy to forget that Ebron was the TE4 as recently as 2018. Coincidently, that marked just the second time in his six-year career that he played all 16 games. 2019 saw the retirement of Andrew Luck and an injury-shortened 11-game season, leading to a paltry TE27 finish.
A Potential TE1 When Healthy
The former Detroit Lions tight end has actually been on the TE1 fringe most of his career, finishing as the TE13 in 2015 and 2017. Ebron also finished as the TE14 in 2016. The only one of those seasons he played all 16 games was 2017. In 2015 and 2016, he played just 13 and 14 games respectively. Had a full season been completed, TE1 numbers would have been achieved. Here is an overview using the yearly player data app.
Austin Hooper and OJ Howard, who are being drafted well before Ebron, have not fared as well sans 2019 when Hooper blew up and Ebron only played 11 games. Hooper and Howard have much more proven talent around them battling for targets. Take the discount here.
A Healthy Ben
Ben Roethlisberger has never been afraid to target his tight ends. In 149 games that he played with Heath Miller, Miller recorded an average of TE10. That is a substantial sample size and could be an indicator of how much the UNC grad will be used. Using the splits app again at DLF, you can see a better summary of how things may shake out.
It is safe to say everyone would take these types of numbers from the 25th tight end off the board in startups.
Tomlin Found His Man
The Pittsburgh Steelers had high hopes for Vance McDonald. Those plans have not panned out as anticipated. McDonald averaged a paltry five yards per target last season. That simply will not cut it at the position. Enter the more proven Ebron. Using the coaching history app, it proves that the Steelers head coach is no stranger to featuring a tight end when there is a capable one on the field.
With question marks surrounding who will be the alpha receiver (outside of JuJu Smith-Schuster), Ebron could be in line for some serious red-zone work. Smith-Schuster is the tallest of the three main wideouts at 6’1”. James Washington (5’11”) and Diontae Johnson (5’10”) do not pose as much of a jump-ball threat as the former Tar Heel does.
Wrapping it Up
Do not panic if you miss out on one of the few top tight ends available early on in your draft. Your team is not destined for failure. The chance is still there to draft a more-than-capable fantasy tight end in the later rounds.
These are all fairly young talents with upside, if you do well enough early on to build a contender, they will round out your squad nicely to make a run in 2020. These are just a few that I found that stood out to me. Be active on the wire and with trades and you will be well on your way to a championship.
Thank you for following along with this series. I hope you enjoyed reading. Feel free to comment and I will be glad to respond or hit me up on Twitter (@FFJeffSmith).
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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