Twitter Observations: Training Camp Approaches

Michael Moore

We are six weeks away (we think) from the 2020 season opener and our dynasty rosters are just about finalized. Most rookie drafts have taken place, but this year will be different without the typical training camp and preseason buzz leading up to week one. This means a player’s dynasty value, barring a roster transaction, will likely stay where it is right now. So instead of waiting for more information, you might look at trading a veteran away now or looking to acquire one before it’s too late.

Below are a handful of top-tier (or former top-tier) receivers to target along with the mirage of an RB1.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Packer of Production

The video above has been making the rounds on fantasy Twitter this week, reminding football-starved viewers just how good Davante Adams is at football. He’s certainly come a long way since his first two seasons when he failed to top 500 yards in either campaign and scored just four times total. Since then, however, he’s turned in three top-12 fantasy seasons in four years and has established himself as Aaron Rodgers‘ top (only?) target in the Green Bay passing game.

This off-season didn’t change any of that as the only pass-catchers the Packers brought in was veteran Devin Funchess via free agency and Josiah Deguara through the draft – not exactly tough competition for Adams to continue to dominate targets.

Dynasty Impact: For a top-three dynasty receiver, you would think Adams would have more top-three fantasy seasons. Yet, through his first six seasons in the league, Adams has had just one such season. Granted, he’s had those couple of WR1 fantasy seasons but just one top-three finish and never as fantasy’s top receiver. So, I’m still a tad surprised Adams is being taken as a top-three dynasty receiver despite the obvious skills he displays in the tweet above.

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I may be in the minority, but I’d look at moving on from Adams while he’s at his peak value. He’ll never top the two receivers ahead of him – Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill – as both are slightly younger and have finished as fantasy’s top receivers in a season before. Both are also entrenched in pass-first offenses.

Meanwhile, the Packers appear to be focusing more on the run since head coach Matt LaFleur came along, jumping from dead-last in rush attempts in 2018 to 13th last year while dropping from third in pass attempts in 2018 to 16th last year. Adams is still very good, but I would look to acquire a few players that could help your dynasty team rather than rely on just this one.

Science Mixon

It’s not all Joe Mixon’s fault he can’t see any daylight when the defenses are stacked against him. It certainly happened a lot last year as he was the only offensive weapon of note for the Bengals after AJ Green’s injury. But Mixon made the best of it and had another 1,000-yard season (his second) while scoring eight times total and adding nearly 300 yards receiving. He’s been a consistent low-end RB1 these last two years and will be just 24 entering the 2020 season.

Dynasty Impact: While the additions the Bengals made in the off-season – Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, improving the offensive line – may boost Mixon’s value, I still see an above-average running back. The tweet above illuminates not only how special Derrick Henry is but how ordinary Joe Mixon was. And looking at his per-game averages, the 71 yards-per-game he had last year was also just ok.

Let’s also not forget that there are several backs entering free agency soon which could result in Mixon being lost in the shuffle:

Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Mixon would be worth a top rookie pick this season or one of many studs at back or receiver. I would move off Mixon now before he gets exposed as just another running back.

Green with Envy

There are worse places to be a receiver than Cincinnati right now and AJ Green is no exception. The perennial Pro Bowler is playing the role of the wise, old veteran for a young, inexperienced offense but for Green, Burrow may also represent the best quarterback he’ll ever play with. Andy Dalton was certainly helpful in making Green a top fantasy receiver, but Burrow is a top overall pick and could help keep Green’s fantasy value going well into his 30s.

Dynasty Impact: It’s to be expected but Green’s dynasty value has fallen off quite the cliff that last few seasons.

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But to be considered just a WR4/5 at this point seems like an insult. When he plays all 16 games, which he did just two seasons ago, Green has always been a WR1. It’s a lot to expect him to play all 16 at this point in his career but he’s averaged 80 yards per game over the course of his eight-year career and is still the de facto top receiver in the Bengals offense. I’m buying the last few productive years Green has left.

Commissioner (Josh) Gordon

We’ll wrap up this week’s observations with an old friend. Every time there’s the smallest scrap of news pertaining to Josh Gordon latching on to a team, fantasy Twitter is reminded of how good Gordon is/was. Seven (!) years ago, Gordon was fantasy’s top receiver when he torched the league for 1,600 yards and nine touchdowns. Of course, that was also when his off-field issues started and prevented him from ever doing anything like that again. He’s been in and out of the league the last seven years but, at long last, maybe Gordon can stay put.

Dynasty Impact: For the low price of a late third-round rookie pick, you can have this lottery ticket. I would absolutely do that, especially for that price. Even though Gordon enters the 2020 season at 29 years old, keep in mind that there were two entire seasons he didn’t play. He still averaged 15.8 yards per reception last season and 18 the year before that. He’s not worth missing out on the rookie receivers who will make up the first two rounds but is worth the risk for anything later. I am buying.

michael moore