2020 Summer Sleeper: Jacksonville Jaguars
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have one of the more unsettled offenses in the league heading into the 2020 season. While head coach Doug Marrone remains in place for now, Jay Gruden has come down south to command the offense.
After shipping off “prized” 2019 free-agent quarterback acquisition Nick Foles, dynasty owners are excited to see continued development from second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew. The coaching staff and front office “mustache” themselves whether Minshew can be their franchise quarterback moving forward with the looming possibility of securing one of the top signal-callers in the 2021 draft.
Coming off a breakout campaign, third-year wide receiver DJ Chark will again be a focal point of the passing game with fluidity amongst the rest of the wide receiver depth chart. Such depth includes Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, Keelan Cole, and exciting rookie Laviska Shenault. The tight end position has cheap, dart-throw options with Tyler Eifert reuniting with his previous Cincinnati OC (Gruden) ahead of the athletic Josh Oliver entering his second year.
That leaves the running back position, which is currently led by former fourth overall selection (yikes) Leonard Fournette. With Fournette’s unsettled relationship with the team, there may be some significant opportunity in the backfield sooner rather than later. That’s where we find the player we’ll discuss today, who could be a very inexpensive Fournette replacement.
James Robinson, RB
Category: Deep Sleeper
Production
Robinson was one of my favorite sleeper running backs headed into the 2020 NFL Draft. A dominant college producer, albeit at the FCS level, Robinson was a true workhorse, amassing 4,444 yards and 44 touchdowns across 719 total carries in his four years at Illinois State. Further examination of that production reveals three straight years of significant production, including a senior season (2019) hoarding 364 rushing attempts for 1,917 yards (5.3 yards per carry). He also showed activity in the passing game with 21 and 16 receptions in his final two years, respectively. His 48.7% college dominator lands in the upper echelon of running backs (98th percentile).
Following that impressive college production profile, Robinson displayed very strong athleticism at the NFL Scouting Combine. At 5-foot-9, 219 pounds (32.3 BMI; 88th percentile), he has ideal size for an early-down NFL role with some pass-catching upside (think Mark Ingram body-type). Robinson showed excellent burst with a 92nd-percentile burst score (combination of vertical and broad jumps), and his power with an 80th-percentile bench press. He also showed above-average agility (69th percentile). The only metric that was below average was his 40-yard dash time (43rd percentile), displaying some concerns about his long speed. This workout profile resulted in an 89th percentile SPARQ-x score indicated he definitely has the athleticism to play in the league.
Pairing his production and athleticism metrics, you can see why I was intrigued as he entered the draft. Adding in scouting reports from The Draft Network, Robinson has good vision, elusiveness and change of direction skills, obvious durability, strong balance due to his low center of gravity, and great explosiveness in short areas. With his fair amount of production in the passing game, he reportedly displayed comfort here, shows a tremendous attitude, and ideal frame for being successful as a pass blocker. Robinson’s best traits were labeled as his toughness and patience. His worst scouted trait was labeled as his long speed, which is not a surprise based on his NFL Combine workout.
View his profile at NFL Combine Results here.
Leading up to the NFL Draft, Robinson found himself on many “Day Three Impact Players” and “Late Risers” lists, referenced as one of the “Best Small School Sleepers” and even received the hyperbolic comps as “the next David Johnson.” Despite some praise, small school prospects were undoubtedly disadvantaged with the pandemic outbreak restricting travel, meetings, and pro days that could be incredibly important for such a player.
Unfortunately, as the fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds came and went without Robinson’s name called. He is no stranger to being overlooked, after a high school career placing him in the top 15 all-time (nationally) in rushing yards, only to earn a three-star recruiting ranking and an FCS offer at Illinois State. Now Robinson has been overlooked yet again despite his continued superb collegiate production and dominance, his workhorse size, and his impressive athletic testing.
There was a glimmer of hope in that Robinson would have an opportunity to choose an opportune landing spot. He was quickly scooped up by the Jacksonville Jaguars as a priority undrafted free agent (UDFA). Robinson settles into one of the best situations that a running back could have landed, as Jacksonville is a team implementing a youth movement and a very unsettled running back depth chart. Let’s examine further.
Depth Chart
Fournette sits at the top of the running back depth chart, as of late July. Another impressive high school and collegiate prospect, Fournette was afforded extremely high draft capital. While he has been fairly good, this draft capital is likely the only reason he is still a Jaguar. The front office and coaching staff have not been secretive about their desire to rid themselves of Fournette. As recently as NFL Draft weekend, the front office was seeking just about anything in return for the former number four overall selection to no avail.
With such a spoiled relationship with the team, it is very difficult to imagine Fournette being a Jaguar much longer. Whether that move comes via a pre- or early-season trade due to an injury elsewhere in the league, at the trade deadline, or at the season’s conclusion at the latest, it is a foregone conclusion that Fournette will be playing elsewhere in 2021. Such early season injuries may be more prevalent than normal with an accelerated rapid return to football with the pandemic restrictions, and catalyze a Fournette trade.
So, who else is on the depth chart? Chris Thompson was added as a free agent, who similarly to Eifert, is also reuniting with OC Gruden. The backfield also contains 2019 fifth-round selection Ryquell Armstead, who collected 32 carries and 24 targets in his first year. A group of other UDFAs also find themselves competing for a roster spot, including Devine Ozigbo (2019), Tavien Feaster (2020), and Nate Cottrell (2020).
With this collection of backs, it is clear that the Jaguars value size, athleticism, and college production, particularly in the case of Fournette, Armstead, Ozigbo, and Robinson. Outside of Fournette, Robinson is the only one of these backs to eclipse 1,100 yards on the ground in a collegiate season. Continuing to take shots on similarly profiled UDFA backs seems to indicate both a preferred body-type or role, as well as a stubborn overcorrection from the absurd draft capital used on Fournette.
Assuming the coaching staff of Marrone and Gruden last the entire year, we can expect multiple roles for running backs. While this may limit the ultimate upside in the short term of one back, it may allow for multiple players to share the burden of the massive role that could hypothetically be vacated by Fournette. With Thompson occupying the third-down role, others would be vying for a spot at early-down carries. This latter role would certainly fit where Robinson excelled throughout college.
Challenges
Challenges certainly exist for any undrafted player, as the hit rates for fantasy purposes are incredibly low. Though, the right combination of talent, opportunity, and timing can provide a glimmer of hope for NFL success. After discussing talent and potential opportunity above, the current timing presents numerous hurdles for Robinson. Cancelled minicamps have restricted any on-field opportunity for rookies at this point. There is still some hope of training camps to commence in the next month.
However, the decreased number of preseason games to two (or complete cancellation) will certainly limit opportunities for fringe roster players like Robinson to showcase their ability and carve out a role on the roster. Additionally, the depth chart contains a number of similar big bodies capable of handling a similar role if given the opportunity, which may prevent Robinson from immediately filling in any vacated carries. Of course, there is also the slight possibility that Fournette remains a Jaguar through the 2020 season or even beyond.
Conclusion
While there are numerous sleeper options on this young squad at a variety of positions, the running back position is the ideal place to take a shot. The unsettled situation at the top of the depth chart, and the fact Minshew was the team’s second-leading rusher last season, highlight the available opening for a young player. Major upside exists if (when) Fournette moves on in 2021 or before.
Robinson is a player whose measurable skill-set lines up with his on-the-field skillset and production. If the domino falls sending Fournette packing from Jacksonville, he may be able to seize a contributing role ahead of other unproven names on the depth chart. Despite some obstacles to overcome in the short-term, there is a chance he is a contributor by the end of this season. He has significant stash appeal in dynasty leagues as a deep sleeper who could emerge in one of the league’s youngest, most unproven offenses.
At a July DLF ADP of 237.00, Robinson is essentially free in drafts and is worth the upside flier on a team with no allegiances to anyone in the backfield. If he is able to crack the roster, it is likely that he readily awaits his opportunity to again demonstrate his ability to dominate touches and churn out production.
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