Two Cheap Veteran Running Backs Who Could Be Starters in 2020
Just in case you haven’t noticed it, fantasy football seasons often don’t follow the maps we sketch out for them in the off-season. Either due to injury or poor performance, players who we were counting on to produce for our fantasy teams let us down and lose their jobs. Other times it’s just the natural progression of a player’s career that will lead to them moving into a starting role, a role earmarked for them since they were drafted into the NFL.
Regardless of circumstance, one edge we can gain over our league-mates is rostering players who could step into a starting role (or revert back into that role after another player flops), when they might not be the prohibitive favorite to do so. Below I’ll identify a couple of veteran players who could find themselves in a starting role before 2020 is over.
Adrian Peterson, RB WAS
As Peterson enters his 14th season in the NFL it’s easy to dismiss him as a fantasy asset. He’s a one dimensional running back who will play the 2020 season at the age of 35. The Washington backfield is a confusing mess right now with Derrius Guice, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic, Bryce Love, and Peyton Barber also on the roster at the RB position. These factors likely contribute to Peterson’s ADP cohorts consisting of (largely) of never-was and never-will-be-useful fantasy assets.
Despite Washington rostering absolutely every running back they could find, the path to fantasy relevance isn’t that difficult for Peterson. Guice has a well-documented history injury. Gibson is an intriguing player, but most of that intrigue centers around his pass-catching ability, and it can’t be ignored that he only had 77 career touches in two seasons at Memphis. Even a 35-year-old Peterson is can run circles around the trio of Love, McKissic, and Barber.
Even at his advanced age, Peterson still produces when given the ball. In six games when he had 15 or more rushing attempts he averaged 14.65 fantasy points per game (roughly the RB18 over a full season) compared to the 7.46 points per game he averaged in his other nine games. 
Yes, any player, especially a running back who sees increased volume should produce more fantasy points, but that’s simply not always the case. Peterson still has some juice left in his legs based on his efficiency stats from the 2019 season. Per FantasyData.com, Peterson ranked in the top 14 in both yards created per game and breakaway rate.
Peterson is not sexy, but if Guice can’t stay healthy (again), he is someone you can plug in your starting lineup when the game script should favor a run-heavy approach for Washington.
Tevin Coleman, RB SF
Sigmund Bloom often discusses how NFL teams show you what they think via their actions in free agency or the draft. The 49ers signed Tevin Coleman during the 2019 off-season to a two-year $8.5 million contract, and most of us in the fantasy world believed this showed their intent to give him the starting role. After a disappointing 2019 season, many of us thought the 49ers would move on from Coleman based on the modest dead cap hit associated with releasing him.
Instead of releasing Coleman, the 49ers held on to him and traded away the second-best running back on their roster (Matt Breida). Raheem Mostert had an excellent run to close out the 2019 season, and I hope he gets a new contract with more guaranteed money from San Francisco, but I’m not willing to bet on him for the 2020 season.
There’s a reason that Mostert has been on seven different NFL rosters while getting playing time for five of them during his five-year career. Call me a skeptic but I just can’t buy into a running back breakout at age 27. I also tend to fade players who are hyper-efficient (in small samples) and that’s exactly what Mostert was last season.
As noted by Mike Tagliere in his recent FantasyPros article, Mostert ranked in the top five in fantasy points above expectation both inside and outside of the red zone. If your name is Derrick Henry and you have both the draft pedigree and a documented history of being elite, I can buy that you are elite. When a player has been rostered by 22% of the NFL (in some cases multiple times), I’m not buying into it.
Though Coleman’s 2019 season did underwhelm, it’s important to note that he was injured in week one, ending up in a walking boot and missing the next several weeks. 
After returning from the ankle injury, Coleman immediately flashed the upside many of us envisioned for him when he joined the 49ers. Though far from consistent the rest of the year, he did show the ability to provide double-digit scoring in five of the final 13 contests of the year while just missing the threshold in week 11.
Breida’s departure should lead to additional targets out of the backfield for Coleman, assuming Kyle Shanahan wants to use the best receiving back on his roster in that role. There are also the 123 rushing attempts left behind by Breida that will be divided between Mostert and Coleman. Where Mostert is due some serious negative regression, Coleman is due for some positive regression. Discounting his rookie season, his rushing attempts, yards per carry, targets, receptions, and yards per reception all ranked as the worst or second-worst of his career in 2019.
With a dynasty startup ADP of 150 (54 selections after Mostert), Coleman is a cheap hedge against Mostert continuing his unsustainable production.
I’ve identified two players you can take a low-risk gamble on adding to your rosters who could easily outperform the cost it takes you to acquire. This list (obviously) isn’t exhaustive. If you’re looking for a template to follow to help identify other players who could slip into 2020 roles, I suggest you attack the running back position. The path to fantasy relevance is typically easier for backup running backs, and you can find cheap options if you look hard enough.
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