Breakout or Fakeout: Ian Thomas
In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout‘ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets? Or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…
Of all of the players to finish as a PPR TE1 in 2019, eight of the twelve (67%) had an August 2019 DLF startup ADP over 100. Finding value at the position is more important than ever as a trend in the dynasty community grows: the tight end premium league. In this format, owners are given an extra half (or sometimes more) point per reception, or are forced to start two players at the position, and sometimes both. The walls are closing in on those dynasty owners who still choose to punt on tight end.
This article series will give savvy dynasty participants a leg up in identifying both undervalued players you should buy right now and overrated players you should sell at their maximum value. All of the trade examples are courtesy of the DLF Trade Finder, but please remember these are just examples. The specific market value of any player will be determined by the competitiveness of your league and the intelligence of the opposing owner in your negotiations. The price to acquire Ian Thomas in the DLF Staff League will likely be much different (read: higher) than in your home league with a few inexperienced players.
Today, we’ll be looking at Thomas, the heir apparent to the Panthers starting tight end job after the release of Greg Olsen. Can Thomas step into Olsen’s role and become a reliable TE1, or will he remain a backbencher in the dynasty landscape?
Collegiate Career/Rookie Season
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
After producing subpar stats at Indiana, Thomas was taken 101st overall in the fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Carolina Panthers. While Thomas was buried on the depth chart behind Olsen, he had an opportunity to succeed sooner than most imagined.
When the veteran Pro Bowler was sidelined for three games early in the 2018 season, many (including this writer) expected the rookie to shine in his absence. Unfortunately, the IU product flopped, producing only 68 scoreless yards in those contests. When Olsen re-injured the same foot in week 12, Thomas took full advantage of his second chance.
The former Hoosier caught 25 of 32 targets for 246 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the final five games of the season. Most importantly, Thomas’ performances in weeks 14 and 16 (16.7, 14.8) helped some fantasy owners bring home their league’s trophy.Â
2019 Season
Despite a strong ending to the 2018 campaign, Thomas found himself on the back of a milk carton through the first 13 weeks of the 2019 season. The second-year tight end was only on the field for 11.9% of the team’s snaps while producing a meek five receptions on nine targets for 28 yards. Thomas got his shot to start in week 14 with Olsen unavailable and did not disappoint, hauling in five receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown on ten targets.
Thomas couldn’t sustain this fantasy momentum through the rest of the season as he only converted 11 targets into six receptions for 51 scoreless yards in spite of playing increased snaps.
 New Coaching Staff, New Opportunity
While Thomas was surprised by the Panthers releasing his mentor in the off-season, it opens up a huge opportunity for the third-year tight end. When the new coaching staff opted not to bring in any significant competition at the position in the draft or free agency, the dynasty hype train left the station.
When a new coaching staff takes over an NFL franchise, it’s pertinent to analyze a coach’s history of using players at a similar position at past stops:
Matt Rhule Tight End Usage History
| Year | Player | Team | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
| 2019 | Christoph Henle | Baylor | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| 2018 | Christoph Henle | Baylor | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| 2017 | Jordan Feuerbacher | Baylor | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| 2016 | Romond Deloatch | Temple | 18 | 242 | 1 |
| 2015 | Romond Deloatch | Temple | 20 | 155 | 3 |
| Average | 9 | 112 | 1 |
At first glance, it appears Thomas is going to be minimally involved in the Carolina offense given Rhule’s track record. Yet, there are a few reasons to not take these numbers at face value. First and foremost, the usage of a tight end in college is a completely different animal from the NFL. A college offense is able to have a narrowly-focused scheme to get the ball in the hands of their top playmakers which aren’t usually found at the tight end position. Finally, Rhule snagged Joe Brady to run the offense fresh off his national championship aerial attack at LSU.
Joe Brady Tight End Usage History
| Year | Player | Team | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Finish |
| 2019 | Thaddeus Moss | LSU | N/A | 47 | 570 | 4 | |
| 2018 | Ben Watson | New Orleans (NFL) | 46 | 35 | 400 | 2 | TE21 |
| 2017 | Coby Fleener | New Orleans (NFL) | 30 | 22 | 295 | 2 | TE34 |
| Average | 38 | 29 | 422 | 3 | TE28 |
Brady was simply an offensive assistant in his two years in New Orleans; therefore, Thaddeus Moss’s numbers last season are the most meaningful to our discussion. My DLF colleague Johnny Kinsley penned a great breakdown for the Riot Report of how the LSU passing game coordinator utilized Moss in 2019. The biggest boon for Thomas’ fantasy value seems to be his new offensive coordinator’s knack for lining up his collegiate tight end on the outside and as an H-back. Brady has said from day one on the job he wants to put his best players in the position to succeed. It will be up to Thomas this off-season to put in the work to demand offensive attention.
Playing to Teddy Bridgewater’s Strengths
The competition for targets in the Panther passing offense (Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson) is a serious concern for the Panther tight end’s dynasty value. While McCaffrey and Moore will be the top two in target share for Carolina, there’s a good chance Thomas will be the third option in the pecking order ahead of Samuel.
Last season in New Orleans, Bridgewater was the lowest-rated quarterback in air yards at 5.8 per attempt. However, this short-range passing offense translated into success as the former Saint averaged a 108.4 passer rating in his final three starts. This quick-fire passing game is where Joe Burrow thrived last season in Baton Rouge under Brady’s tutelage. Look for Carolina’s new offensive boss to successfully play to his new signal-caller’s strength which is great news for Thomas.
Dynasty/Trade Value
According to DLF June Startup ADP, Thomas is being selected as 154th overall player and 18th tight end off the board. Similarly, he’s ranked as the 18th among dynasty tight ends and 174th overall. The DLF Trade Finder shows the presumptive TE1 for the Panthers can be acquired on the pricing spectrum of a 2021 third and Darwin Thompson to Lions’ veteran wide receiver Marvin Jones.
If one of your dynasty league mates offers you Ian Thomas for a 2021 third and a still hibernating player with some name recognition like Thompson it’s a smash accept. While I’d be cautious giving up a future rookie selection if I’m rebuilding, you’d be more than pleased using that pick on a young, starting tight end with Thomas’ upside. The trade straight up for Jones is a little more complex.
A dynasty squad restocking the cupboard rostering Marvin Jones should look to sell the 30-year-old veteran for a young player with upside like Ian Thomas at a position of need ASAP. In this scenario, I’d take the deal straight up but also look to get a 2021 third or fourth out of the contending squad. Why is this? Well, in case there’s no 2020 season, you don’t want the rotting dynasty carcass of a veteran WR decaying on your roster.
Now, please don’t get me wrong, I like Jones and think he’s being criminally undervalued this season. Yet, even as a contender, I’m not sure I want him on my roster until I’m certain football is played this coming Fall.
Breakout or Fakeout?
Given the red carpet to the starting gig, a favorable offensive coordinator/quarterback combination, and a reasonable price to acquire… I’m projecting Ian Thomas to break out in the 2020 season. Now, let’s be clear regarding what it means for him to break out. I’m projecting him to finish as a TE1 with a TE8 ceiling and a TE12 floor. Given this would outperform his TE18 price tag, I’ll be looking to buy Thomas wherever available.
Verdict: Breakout
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