Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Albert Okwuegbunam, TE DEN
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: Albert Okwuegbunam
Position: Tight end
Pro Team: Denver Broncos
College Team: Missouri
Draft Status: Round four, 108th overall selection
Video Highlights
Combine Review
- Height: 6’5”
- Weight: 258 lbs
- Arms: 34.125″
- Hand: 10.25″
- 40-yard dash: 4.49 seconds
- Bench press: N/A
- Three-cone drill: N/A
- Vertical jump: N/A
- Broad jump: N/A
Strengths
- Speed. He posted a 99th percentile 40-yard dash. Very few tight ends in the history of the game can run like the former Tiger.
- Other measurables. He is in the top 30th percentile historically with his hand size, arm length, height and weight.
- Early production. He posted 29 catches, 415 yards and 11 touchdowns as a true Freshman at Missouri and did so at less than 20 years old.
- Quarterback. ‘Albert O’ joins his former college teammate Drew Lock in the Mile-High City.
Weaknesses
- Draft capital. Despite all the metrics and an insane combine performance, five tight ends were still selected over him in the NFL Draft.
- Overall college production. His junior season at Missouri sported a season-low total of 26 catches and only 306 yards. This was his least productive season.
- Landing spot. Being reunited with Lock is fantastic, but the Broncos drafted Noah Fant in the first round just one year earlier. The path to an immediate role is very suspect.
Opportunities
Fant is the clear-cut starter in Denver and should follow-up his 66-target rookie campaign with even more volume in 2020. After Fant, the depth chart is wide open. Nick Vannett (391 snaps and 17 targets in 2019) and Jeff Heuerman (397 snaps and 20 targets in 2019) are classic blocking tight ends and should be easy to beat out as an offensive weapon. Jake Butt struggled to recover from his third torn ACL in the 2018 season but is seemingly healthy for the start of camp. He will battle for a roster spot and despite his pedigree has played only three games in three seasons. The path to quickly get on the field as an athletic playmaker is noticeably clear for Albert O.
Threats
The tight end depth chart does not appear daunting, but the overall market share opportunity is the opposite. The Broncos used their first-round pick on Jerry Jeudy and followed that up with their second-round pick on KJ Hamler. Both figure to be ahead of Okwuegbunam in the pecking order as does Fant and third-year wide receiver Courtland Sutton. The additional of Melvin Gordon (59 targets per year for his career) also figures to take some early opportunity away.
The Broncos ranked 29th in the league in total plays and 27th in pass attempts last season. Even if the volume ticks upward for sophomore Drew Lock, the numerous skill players slated for a prominent role will be fighting for a modest-sized offensive pie. Okwuegbunam would need one or even multiple injuries to find his way to a big role in 2020 and given most of the other weapons in the passing game are also on rookie deals, the path to any appreciable volume in the first two or three seasons is not looking clear.
Short-Term Expectations
I do not expect a fantasy-relevant role in 2020. Given the current depth weapons in the offense and potential low-volume attack, I am looking for Okwuegbunam to be active on gameday and showing flashes in limited opportunity. Even with a Fant injury, the other veterans on the roster would likely fill-in most of the snaps. Seeing enough to gain some value steam in dynasty is a successful rookie campaign.
Long-Term Expectations
The Broncos rookie just turned 22 in April and possesses an elite profile that should keep dynasty owners intrigued for multiple seasons. I expect his value to continue to hold steady as he continues to move closer to the end of his rookie contract and at this rate, his contract is set to expire after 2023, the same time Fant is set to be a free agent. He has a lot of ground to make up on Fant but the situation may blur the eyes of impatient owners who sell short or give up too soon.
I am excited to add as many shares of this player as possible and given the current circumstances, the window to buy at a modest cost should remain open for at least one more year. Expect a potential fantasy impact as early as the end of the 2021 season and some serious hype going into 2022. The prospect of moving onto another team as a starter will be there if owners who get in early are patient.
NFL Player Comparison
This is one of the tougher players to find a comparison. Athletes of Okwuegbunam caliber are typically picked higher in the NFL Draft and it is especially concerning given the perceived weakness of this tight end class.
Since 2003, only three other tight ends have run a 40-yard dash faster than Albert O. Those three? Evan Engram, Darren Waller and Vernon Davis. That alone is encouraging for him being a productive NFL player and based on the maturation time and draft capital, I would best compare him to Waller. The only drawback is that Waller struggled with off-the-field issues during his first four seasons and is a converted wide receiver.
Projected Rookie Draft Range
According to the June DLF superflex ADP, Okwuegbunam is going at pick 43 or the 4.07. Instead of using a draft pick on him, it is very possible that he drops to waivers in a three-round draft and the acquisition cost of getting him in the fourth round is extremely low.
He might be a player you can buy cheaper over the next few seasons given his lack of immediate opportunity. If you miss out on Adam Trautman (4.03), feel confident to select Albert O and be prepared to stash him for a few years without any expectations.
Conclusion
Ultimately, the profile does not match the price on Obwuegbunam. This is a product of an extremely deep draft class and based on the profile alone, I do not want to leave my draft season without a couple of shares. Expect an extended buy window over the next few seasons as opportunities with likely be limited in Denver.
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