Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Devin Duvernay, WR BAL

Bruce Matson

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Devin Duvernay

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: Baltimore Ravens

College Team: Texas Longhorns

Draft Status: Round three, 92nd overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

  • Height: 5’10’’
  • Weight: 200 pounds
  • Hands: 9 1/2’’
  • 40-yard dash: 4.39 seconds
  • Bench press: N/A
  • Vertical jump: 35 1/2’’
  • Broad jump: 123’’
  • Three-Cone: 7.13 seconds
  • 20-yard shuttle: 4.2 seconds

STRENGTHS

  • Has the speed to stretch the defense
  • Turns into a running back after the catch and can become a yard-after-catch monster if given space after the catch
  • Aggressive at the catch point
  • Can catch the ball in traffic and has very reliable hands
  • He’s very assertive when it comes to getting in and out of his breaks

WEAKNESSES

  • Not the most nuanced route runner
  • Lacks the ball skills to climb the ladder to make tough contested catches downfield
  • Struggles to break out routes and has the tendency to drift at the top of the route
  • Late breakout age

OPPORTUNITIES

The Baltimore Ravens added a lot of speed to the offense when they drafted Marquise Brown in the first round of last year’s draft. The addition of Duvernay is another admission the team wants to keep defenses honest with speed. Baltimore will want to use Duvernay in three wide receiver sets where they use his explosiveness off the line of scrimmage and his after-the-catch abilities to make the offense even more lethal when Lamar Jackson is rolling out and he has the choice of taking off for a big gain or hitting one of his electric receiving threats deep downfield.

This offense is only going to improve going forward since all of the Ravens passing options are young and are in the developmental stages of their career. As the offense gets even more efficient, it should lend for some added opportunities for Duvernay and the other wide receivers to post numbers.

We should see him involved in the offense early in his career. There is some competition at the WR3 spot, but Duvernay is more than talented enough to win the job in the slot. From there, the world could be his oyster if the passing volume ever increases.

THREATS

Passing volume is a major threat to everyone in the passing game. Jackson is the most dangerous quarterback in the league when he decides to tuck the ball and run. He is also less likely to check it down to the short-intermediate parts of the field, because if he’s under duress with open field in front of him, then Jackson will always have the option to take off to gain the extra yardage. This means Duvernay will need to be exceptional after the catch and be consistent when it comes to creating separation on his routes in order for him to maximize his opportunities.

Mark Andrews is one of the best tight ends in the league. He saw a 23 percent target share and a 28 percent share of the team’s air yards last year. Andrews will continue to be a major focus in the team’s offensive game plan. With Brown also seeing around 20 percent of the targets, it’s going to be hard for another wide receiver to get enough volume to be a dependable fantasy asset. This is a major concern for Duvernay’s week-to-week output.

Baltimore also took James Proche in the sixth round of this year’s draft. I know we shouldn’t be worried about late-round picks. However, the depth of this draft at wide receiver makes things a little different. Proche is a very good slot receiver. If he plays well in camp and earns the opportunity for more playing time, then he could cut into Duvernay’s targets and possibly snaps.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

We should expect him to see the field in some fashion this year. His rapport with Jackson will depend on when the Ravens will be able to participate in training camp and other preseason activities. If there’s a delay or if the preseason is condensed, then it might be later in the year before we see him play a key role within the offense.

Our expectations should be limited during his first couple of seasons in the league. The passing volume will need to increase and he will need to earn some of the target share. We just need him to showcase his talent to some capacity this year and from there he should start earning a larger portion of the snap share going into years two and three.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

There’s a lot that would need to happen for him to develop into a high-end fantasy asset. First off, he would need to earn a large role within the offense which might be hard to do if Andrews and Brown are soaking up all the targets. Jackson will also need to start relying on his arm more than his legs in order for Duvernay to be a consistent weekly fantasy option.

We will also need him to be a monster after the catch. The targets might not be there for him to be a stable fantasy producer and therefore, he will need to maximize his opportunities by blowing by defenders after he catches the ball. If he can churn out a few home-run plays, then he will at least be a popular best ball option along with being a trendy DFS play in plus matchup situations.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

One of the reasons why I like watching Duvernay play is that he reminds me a lot of Golden Tate. They are both very aggressive at the catch point and after the catch. I like watching wide receivers with a “my ball” mentality and both players demonstrate that mindset from whistle to whistle. Ironically, both players are similar in size and speed. I’m not a big fan of using player comps for my evaluations, but I feel these two players correlate to each other very well.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, Duvernay is usually being drafted in the third round with a 31.70 average draft position. On average, he’s the 16th wide receiver off the board and the last wide receiver drafted who was selected in the top 100 in the actual NFL Draft.

He’s an excellent value considering he’s a third-round rookie draft pick who has the athleticism to develop into a game-changer. Given his speed and his ability to gain yards after the catch, he could develop into an interesting asset in best-ball leagues. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes a late bloomer given the nature of Baltimore’s offense.

bruce matson