The Bruce Arians Effect
In the event that you’ve been living off the grid for the last few months, some big things have happened in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers brought in Tom Brady while letting Jameis Winston walk away and acquired Brady’s former Patriots teammate Rob Gronkowski via trade.
While most of the fantasy community is excited to see them join a team with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans led by offensive mastermind Bruce Arians, I’m not so sure. Bruce Arians has been an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level for 15 years. I looked back through his history and wanted to see if his results matched up with the hype of his “no risk it, no biscuit” philosophy.
His Teams
Arians broke into the NFL as an offensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns in 2001 and held the position for three seasons. He was then the Pittsburgh Steelers’ wide receivers coach starting in 2004 until he was hired as their offensive coordinator in 2007, where he began to build his reputation as a players’ coach and offensive guru. He was then named the OC of the Indianapolis Colts in 2012 and was subsequently named interim head coach while then-HC Chuck Pagano underwent cancer treatment. Following his successful stint with the Colts, Arians became the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals in 2013 and held the job through 2017 when he retired. He then came out of retirement to become the HC of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season.
How have Arians’ teams fared? Obviously, the NFL has changed dramatically since Arians broke into the league nearly 20 years ago, so doing my best to compare apples to apples, I looked at where his teams finished in yards per game and points per game. As an offensive coordinator, Arians’ teams have an average ranking of 18th in total yards, and 18th in points scored. As a head coach, he didn’t do significantly better, with his teams averaging 11th in yards and 18th in points. Together, over his entire time in the NFL, Arians’ teams have averaged a 14th-place finish in yards, and a 16th-place finish in points scored. Not bad, but not good either. It’s quite literally the definition of middle-of-the-pack.
Did Arians’ teams dabble in the extremes? A bit, but as was just mentioned above, his teams are staggeringly run of the mill. Arians had a team finish within the top ten in yardage in five of his 15 seasons. On the other hand, he also has had a team finish in the bottom ten five times as well. Points scored? Almost the exact same, with four years of top ten production and five years in the bottom ten too. For a man who is considered to be one of the best offensive-minded coaches in the league, those aren’t amazing numbers, but maybe he’s been able to generate fantasy production.
His Players
For fantasy football, the name of the game is fantasy points. We’ve looked at what Arians has done regarding NFL production, but as we see time and time again, real-life football performance doesn’t always directly correlate with fantasy production. Arians’ splits between his time as an offensive coordinator and head coach were very similar, so I’m not going to break it down by Arians’ time in each role. Every league uses different scoring and settings, and I’m using standard scoring for my numbers despite the growing popularity of PPR leagues so pass catchers don’t volume their way into relevancy. Be sure to check out DLF’s coaching history app if you want to compare more of Arians’ numbers against the rest of the league.
Quarterback
An Arians offense has finished the season with a fantasy QB1 (top-12) only five times. Interestingly enough, last year, Jameis Winston had the highest finish of any signal-caller under Arians’ watch, as he finished the season as QB3. On three occasions, Arians’ quarterback finished outside of the top-24, but, in fairness, those were primarily due to injuries.
History tells us that the Arians’ system is likely to produce a QB2 for fantasy purposes. Still, the odds are stacked against you if you’re expecting anything more than the average QB16 finish we’ve seen from all of Arians’ previous quarterbacks. It’ll be fun to watch Tom Brady in a new uniform, but it’s going to be hard to expect something better than a borderline QB1/QB2 season.
Running Back
These are some eye-opening numbers. Even though there are still many Ronald Jones truthers out there and the Ke’Shawn Vaughn fan club is growing, history tells us Arians has not consistently produced fantasy-relevant running backs. The average fantasy finish for Arians’ running backs is a surprising RB24 to end the season – and this includes an overall RB1 finish from David Johnson in 2016. Only three times over 15 seasons has Arians’ lead back ended the year as a top-12 back.
Conversely, over half of Arians’ lead backs finished as RB24 or worse – eight of his 15 running backs couldn’t crack the top 23. His aggressive “no risk it, no biscuit” mantra leads to a more air-oriented attack, and maybe the backs suffer as a result. Either way, temper your expectations for whoever ends up as the top RB in the backfield under Arians. His magical year with Johnson has tainted the memory of many a fantasy owner.
Wide Receiver
With his quarterbacks not doing much and his running backs being surprisingly unproductive, surely Arians’ wide receivers must have been productive to garner all the love that comes his way, right? Last year was the first time Arians’ boasted two top-12 receivers, with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans ending the season second and eighth, respectively.
Twice his system has generated one WR1 and one WR2, and twice we’ve seen two WR2s. That’s not too bad, but be aware that Arians’ top receiver has averaged a fantasy finish of WR15, while his number two has been WR34. The Godwin-Evans combo is arguably the most talented duo Arians has had at the position, however, the historical data likely means one of them will be taking a step back, and my money is on Evans.
Tight End
When it was announced that Tampa Bay had hired Arians out of retirement to take over their vacant role, many fantasy owners were initially excited for OJ Howard. However, people started digging into Arians’ history with tight ends and found that they are a dead-end in his system.
Rob Gronkowski is the greatest offensive weapon to play the tight end position in the history of football, and his chemistry with Tom Brady is undeniable. DLF’s Ken Kelly recently took a look at Gronkowski’s impact on the entire Buccaneers offense in 2019, but how will the Arians’ offense impact Gronk? The lack of tight end fantasy production in Arians’ system cannot be overstated.
As a head coach, his top tight end has averaged a TE29 finish. Yes, that’s 29th overall at the position. During his 15-year NFL career, six times we’ve seen Arians’ top tight end complete the year as the 32nd tight end or worse. Eleven times they’ve finished 23rd or worse – that is shockingly bad. With Arians at the helm, it’s going to be hard for Gronkowski to get into his familiar TE1 territory fantasy owners have come to expect. If he finishes higher than TE16, I would be shocked.
What to Expect in 2020 and Beyond
For real football, Bruce Arians is a fine head coach. He’s gone 65-42 with two playoff berths over the course of seven seasons as the boss. But for fantasy purposes, the jury is out, even after 15 years. It’s hard to get excited about the results we’ve seen. Five QB1s and three outside of the top 24, two TE1s and 11 outside of the top 22, six WR1 seasons and ten WR3s or worse, and three RB1s and eight outside of the top 23 isn’t going to get it done.
As the hype surrounding this team and it’s newly-acquired assets grows, it might be time for savvy dynasty owners to sell every piece of this offense as the prices will likely never be higher. The Arians system has never proven to be a consistent producer of fantasy points, and it’s hard to believe that the arrival of a 42-year old Tom Brady and oft-injured, recently retired Rob Gronkowski will change that over the next few seasons.
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