Dynasty Post Draft Analysis: 32 Teams, 32 Questions – Part One

Editor Note: This is part one of a four-part series.

The 2020 NFL Draft came and went with a lot of energy, excitement and certainly a new look no one could have foreseen just a few months ago.

Despite the uncertainty imparted by the COVID-19 pandemic, it was the most interesting and engaging draft we’ve had yet. I can’t ever remember watching every round unfold with as much interest as the round before it, but that is exactly what happened. Being brought into the homes of the players, coaches and GM’s added a personal element to the broadcast that hasn’t been present before.  And as for the draft itself, what a great one it was!

The 2020 NFL Draft had all the elements of 2014 and in the end, at least in my estimation, surpassed it to become my favorite draft of all-time, not only for the new process but in the depth and talent of this year’s rookie class. There was talent, intrigue and mystery at every position and with every selection and, like any good novel, ample amounts of twists, turns and subtle plot lines to keep things interesting from beginning to end.

Now that the dust has settled and each rookie has a new home, we need to survey the landscape to determine what opportunities exist, what the future holds for the teams and what questions remain. All selections are not created equal and as this was a very deep draft class.  Dynasty players need to spend extra time getting these selections correct so as not to waste their precious draft capital.  So join me here as I spin you around the league through all 32 teams, in two parts, to look at what I believe to be the primary questions for the upcoming season and beyond. Following each player in parentheses, including rookies, will be his DLF positional ranking.  For specific rookie rankings, please consult our rookie rankings.

One note before we begin.  As is always the case, the opinions here are my own. I spend a lot of time watching tape, reading proven NFL expert analysis and forming my own conclusions about talent to predict potential at the next level for the rookies and veteran players. In my fantasy activities I focus on ignoring hype, bold calls and meaningless data and, instead, focus on trends, production and metrics I feel have the most impact without a level of subjectivity.  In everything I do, my objectivity is my calling card whether it’s in the court of popular opinion or if I’m by myself on an island.

Let’s get started with the NFC.

NFC Part One

Arizona

Will Kyler Murray take the next step?

You might say Arizona fired the shot heard around the world before the draft began. In a stunning move, they were able to acquire top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (WR4) in return for David Johnson (RB29) and additional pick compensation.  With Kenyan Drake (RB18) firmly entrenched as the RB1 and DeAndre Hopkins pairing with Christian Kirk (WR34) along with Larry Fitzgerald (WR86) in the slot, Kyler Murray (QB3) is the focal point in 2020.  I have not been on Murray’s bandwagon since the undersized signal caller came into the league in 2019 but the addition of Hopkins does move him up on my rankings to the QB8.  I cannot move him higher until I see him perform better than his QB10 2019 performance, however.  Arrows are pointing straight up for Murray and it would seem all the pieces are in place for him to take the next step.  If he doesn’t in 2020, he’s going to disappoint many.

Last year’s Twitter darling Andy Isabella (WR74) is on the dynasty respirator and can still be held, though his runway to success is much shorter than it was this time last year.  As for Larry Fitzgerald, his days in the dynasty sun are over but he’s still deserving of a roster spot and should see an uptick in production following the addition of Hopkins.

Atlanta

Can Todd Gurley resurrect his career?

That question may be too harsh as Todd Gurley (RB20) didn’t reproduce his epic 2018 season, but did finish as the RB13 (PPR) with limited touches. The Rams were near the bottom in offensive line performance per ProFootballFocus and their usage of all their backs was highly suspect. Was this due to Gurley’s gimpy knees or trying to maximize results given certain backs’ strengths? All talk has been about Gurley’s knees and the presence of an arthritic component. None of this has been confirmed but there does appear enough flame beneath the smoke to suggest something else is at work. The Rams wouldn’t walk into a huge cap hit and away from Gurley’s production if there was no issue.  How much of an issue is the real question and we’re going to find out shortly.

If the draft is any indication, the Falcons feel good about the situation in that the only offensive position they selected was at center. There’s little doubt the state of Gurley’s knees will be a massive variable in the equation of dynasty teams everywhere. There’s no greater risk-reward than that of Gurley in 2020. Even then, success this year means little as he’s on a one-year contract and will return to free agency in 2021, though expect the Falcons to move quickly should they have confidence he can be a long term solution. On the offensive side of the ball, there isn’t much to be concerned with and all eyes will remain intently focused upon Gurley.

Carolina

Is Teddy Bridgewater the answer?

The big move was in the team’s release of Superman Cam Newton (QB20), trading Kyle Allen (QB44) and securing Teddy Bridgewater (24) as the new starter.  Bridgewater is still only 27 years of age, looked great in limited action with Saints in 2019 and was deserving to be a starter again. Given Carolina’s young receivers and the presence of top dynasty player Christian McCaffrey (RB1), the Panthers have concluded a bit of a youth movement. The addition of Robby Anderson (WR58) gives them another field-stretcher who could pay dividends as safeties play much closer to the line of scrimmage to defend McCaffrey. The Panthers used all seven draft selections on the defensive side of the ball, which gives you some understanding as to their level of confidence in the offense.  And for good reason. Teddy Bridgewater may not be the mobile presence that was Newton, but Newton’s time out of the pocket led to regular injury and didn’t produce consistent results.  Bridgewater may just be the missing piece Carolina has been looking for.  As DLF’s QB24, he represents a fair value at that ranking.

Chicago

Does it matter who is under center?

Mitchell Trubisky (QB34) is entering his fourth year in the league after being selected second overall and the seat is hotter than ever.  Of course, the the Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes (QB1) tenth overall in the same draft, which doesn’t make it any easier for Chicago faithful.  With the Trubisky experiment one Nick Foles (QB37) away from failure, it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel in 2020. It’s fully possible the Bears are selecting their new face of the franchise in 2021.  Let the “Tank for Trevor” chant begin.

The Bears are quickly becoming a graveyard for fantasy potential.  Running back David Montgomery (RB22) is entering his second year following a somewhat disappointing rookie campaign which ended with a RB24 (PPR) ranking.  Receiver Anthony Miller (WR56) is entering his third year but has yet to breakout in the NFL, though there were signs in the second half of 2019. Allen Robinson (WR21) remains the only consistent bright spot on offense, and he’s a free agent in 2021.  As it stands, the Bears have become a team to avoid in fantasy.

All signs point to a mediocre year, another quarterback change, a lost star player (Robinson) following the season and a lot of excitement for a defense that may keep them in games enough such that they lose out on a top quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft. On the bright side, the Bears did select top tight end Cole Kmet (TE27) with eleventh selection in the second round, addressing a need which won’t be filled by the aging Jimmy Graham (TE47), acquired in the off-season. But as tight ends have a very slow integration period into the NFL, and the Bears haven’t had much luck with tight ends in the recent past, fade Kmet in rookie drafts until late in the third round at the earliest.

In short, no, it doesn’t matter who is under center – yet.  Expect inconsistent fantasy production from the entire offense.

Dallas

Too many mouths to feed?

The Cowboys made a surprise move when they selected the dynamic receiver CeeDee Lamb (WR17) with the 17th overall selection in the NFL Draft.  The big winner is without a doubt was Dak Prescott, who will now have a dream offense around him and in what is essentially, again, a contract year.  He’s poised for big numbers in 2021.  The talk now centers on the sheer number of quality targets available to Prescott and who to downgrade as a result.  Lamb should see quality targets out of the slot and both Amari Cooper (WR5) and Michael Gallup (WR35) will likely be impacted.  The presence of these three receivers will keep the safeties off the line of scrimmage opening up running lanes for Ezekiel Elliott (RB4).  While Cooper may see a reduction in 2019’s 119 targets, my belief is the quality of his targets will increase, offsetting that drop.  My greatest concern is for Michael Gallup, his 113 targets and his 58% catch rate.  I’m looking for Dak to get the ball out of his hands more quickly in 2020 which should directly impact Gallup.  I’m bullish on Cooper and Lamb and fading Gallup.

This looks to have to all the trappings of wildly inconsistent fantasy performances week to week as Prescott rotates targets based on what defensive secondaries are taking away.  The Cowboys have weapons at every position when you consider the recently elevated Blake Jarwin (TE22) receiving quality targets and while the team looks well-positioned for stellar offensive production, dynasty coaches are going to need to be patient to see how the production is balanced.

Detroit

What will be the running back rotation?

The Lions selected rookie running back D’Andre Swift (RB12) in the second round, immediately throwing cold water on the value of 2018 second-round selection Kerryon Johnson (RB32). Johnson has only appeared in 18 games in his two seasons and it’s clear the the Lions are looking for more consistency at the position. Swift, arguably the most talented three-down back of this year’s class, is taking a back seat to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB9) and Jonathan Taylor (RB10) primarily due to drafted situation. All three backs offer something different for consideration and I can’t throw shade at any coach selecting one over the other.  For myself, Swift and CEH are very close in value, though I favor what I have consistently seen in Swift while at Georgia while factoring in the Chiefs’ deep stable at the position. As I’ve long said about Detroit, however, it’s where running backs go to die.  My tape review on Swift gives me confidence the Lions haven’t had a back as capable since Kevin Jones and Jones would have ranked lower in my rankings.  Taylor is an athletic phenom but isn’t a natural receiver and has struggled with both drops and fumbles. He’s easy to root for but I’m not falling into a speed trap with better options on the board.  I’ll allow another coach assume that risk if I can.

Expect a two-back rotation between Swift and Johnson though it’s fully expected Swift will receive the lion’s share (pun not intended) with Johnson factoring more on shorter down-and-distance work, when healthy. Should Johnson fall to injury again, Swift would see true bell-cow workload.

One note for rookie drafters. While I have Swift as my top rookie in this year’s draft class, over both CEH and Taylor, realize I am in the minority.  In live drafts I have seen Swift fall to as low as 1.07.  Should you value Swift similarly and hold the 1.01 or 1.02, there may be an opportunity to trade back to secure him while adding additional first round compensation, a potentially worthwhile move in this deep class.

Green Bay

What’s the real story behind the Jordan Love selection?

Wouldn’t we all love to know what went on behind the scenes? The Packers shocked everyone when they selected Jordan Love (QB33) at the bottom of the first round in the NFL Draft, as if to spurn public opinion of needing more talent at receiver for Aaron Rodgers (QB9).  Despite the spin from those responsible for making the selection, the intent would seem rather obvious. There’s been an under-current of frustration and tension from new head coach Matt LeFleur directed toward Rodgers and rumor has it Love isn’t expected to hold the clipboard for multiple years while Rodgers plays out the remaining term of his contract. Instead, things could get very interesting during the 2021 off-season.  While Rodgers has yet to publicly address the selection, he has a long history of passive-aggressive behavior such that it’s well understood what’s going on ‘inside.’ If Matt LefFleur wants ownership of the team, it’s going to be hard to accomplish with Rodgers in the equation.

The shot has been fired by the Packers organization and all signs point to the new face of the franchise holding a clipboard for a year while Rome burns in 2020, regardless of what the record will be in the end.  This may be the most entertaining story to follow this season.

Los Angeles Rams

Will Cam Akers be the RB1?

Cam Akers (RB18) was selected with the 20th selection in the second round, providing a gut-punch to Darrell Henderson (RB39) believers (myself included). Following Todd Gurley’s release, it was believed the team would use a two-back rotation between Henderson and veteran Malcolm Brown (RB61), the latter a savvy and under-appreciated role-player.  While I’m a strong believer in Henderson’s skill-set, being a nearly identical to match to former NFL (and Memphis) runner DeAngelo Williams, I believed it was Brown who would assume the primary-back role.  The selection of Akers reduces my confidence markedly. Akers is a do-it-all back who wowed at the NFL Combined but was mired on a poor Florida State team.  His decision to enter the Draft following his junior season was a good one.

I don’t believe anyone other than Head Coach Sean McVay knows what to expect from the backfield in 2020, at least in terms of a rotation.  What I am confident in forecasting is that all three backs will see time in certain situations which limits Akers’ value in the near-term. The best dynasty coaches can hope for is for Akers to work up to a lion’s share of touches, perhaps controlling up to two-thirds of the work while we wait for Brown to depart in free agency in 2021

Have thoughts or comments? Please share below and stay tuned for Part 2.

Follow me on Twitter:  @DLF_Jeff

jeff haverlack