Rookies Destined to be Underdrafted
The 2020 NFL Draft has come and gone. All the research, hype, and planning has been completed and rookie drafts have begun. After an early look at ADP, let us talk about four rookies destined to be underdrafted and why you should not let it happen in your upcoming rookie drafts.
Henry Ruggs, WR LV (Superflex ADP 2.02)
The argument has been beaten to death. For the last three months, you could not go a day without hearing the phrase “better for the NFL than for fantasy” when discussing Henry Ruggs. Despite being drafted in the top 12, Ruggs is currently the fifth wide receiver off the board in this class and checks in 14th overall in the current super ADP. Why is Ruggs undervalued? There are a couple of reasons.
First, Derek Carr ranked 14th in the NFL last season with 513 pass attempts. While this is not a high-volume attack, it certainly is not short of opportunity. Marquise Brown, the first wide receiver drafted last year and arguably an inferior prospect to Ruggs, garnered 71 targets in 14 games. Adjusted to a 16-game pace, Brown would have received 81 targets and when prorating this for the Raiders pace in the passing game (439 attempts by Ravens quarterbacks vs 523 attempts by Raiders quarterbacks), 95 targets would not be unreasonable for Ruggs. 51 receivers garnered more than 80 targets in 2019.
Second, assuming Ruggs gets a conservative 80 targets, only 22 wide receivers who played over ten games in 2019 finished as a WR3 (top 36) more than 60 percent of the time. In translation, many of these players hitting the target threshold being projected for Ruggs were not consistent. Far from it.
Back to the original question. Why is he undervalued? Consistency is overvalued. What I described above is the floor for Ruggs. The minimum. What if he is much better than this? The Raiders believe he may be based on the draft capital spent on him and even if he only produces a top-36 week half of the games he played, it is very likely that capturing that variability in your lineup will lead to a much better chance at a head-to-head victory.
In leagues that require three starting receivers and at least two flex spots, Ruggs should be taken ahead of Ke’Shawn Vaughn in superflex drafts. You have a good chance to get him at the 1.12 to secure him in drafts. For a look back at some data that supports this, check out Peter Howard’s pre-draft breakdown.
AJ Dillon, RB GB (Superflex ADP 2.10)
Dillon was selected as the sixth running back off the board by the Packers and both the landing spot and the draft capital surprised many. Aaron Jones touched the ball 285 times in 2019 and despite finishing as the RB2 overall in fantasy, the team still invested a top 60 pick in Dillon who shattered the combine, posting a vertical jump and broad jump in the top five percentile and an adjusted speed score that was third in the class behind Jonathan Taylor and Antonio Gibson.
Since the draft, we have seen the rise of Ke’Shawn Vaughn from 2.11 to 2.01 in the latest superflex ADP. Dillon, despite the draft capital, landing spot and profile, has fallen from 2.06 to 2.10. I simply cannot explain why this is the case. Even if we eliminate the reception potential for Dillon, who caught only 21 passes in three seasons at Boston College, his floor compares very favorably to Sony Michel and David Montgomery from the past two draft classes.
Michel was the 1.09 in superflex ADP in 2018 and Montgomery was the 1.05 in superflex ADP in 2019. While the 2020 class appears to be deeper, the scarcity at running back has pushed Vaughn up ten spots while Dillon has fallen. Check out this mock draft video at 17:45 for further justification on why Dillon is being undervalued and why his ADP will be higher by the end of the summer. At worst, he presents a great investment at his current value.
Lynn Bowden, RB LV (Superflex ADP 3.11)
Bowden was drafted with the 16th pick of the third round to the Raiders (one pick before they selected Bryan Edwards) and was announced during the draft as a running back. This position move was expected with Antonio Gibson but very few saw it coming with Bowden and it makes his current ADP a tremendous value.
The numbers are well-documented in my pre-draft article on Bowden and everything that has taken place since can do nothing but increase his stock. His ability to both run and catch the ball out of the backfield and his history as a receiver will allow the Raiders to use him in any role. He becomes the ultimate handcuff at numerous positions and combines that with the talent to out-shine the starter in almost any situation. He draws a very favorable comparison to Deebo Samuel and considering Samuel’s rookie draft cost (2.04 in single QB ADP) and current dynasty ADP (WR24), getting in now could be a nice way to turn a profit if you don’t believe in Bowden’s long-term production.
Make sure you consider him in the middle of the third round in your superflex draft as his 3.11 ADP reflects his value before his move to running back. That position tag will bring him into the mix of higher scarcity and will surely push his ADP up over the next few months. Reach now and rejoice later! If you do not have a pick, consider moving a future pick. Check out these recent trades using future picks to make this happen.
Adam Trautman, TE NO (Superflex ADP 4.03)
I will preface this by saying it is more applicable to leagues with a premium scoring for tight ends and even much more to those where you are required to start two at the position. Currently going off the board as the 39th overall player in superflex ADP, the Saints made a significant investment in Trautman taking him at the very end of the second day of the NFL Draft. An older prospect, the University of Dayton product is going to have a learning curve at the NFL level and I surmise that much of his value may be due to another similar prospect from Ohio, and one who has not lived up to his cost, Adam Shaheen.
Examining his profile closer, Trautman’s 96th-percentile three-cone drill and size (6 foot 5 and 255 pounds) makes the upside on this player extremely high. Combine that with a few years to grow into the position and an innovative play-caller in Sean Payton, if there is one tight-end I will take a chance on in this class, it is Trautman.
Jared Cook finished as a TE1 in 2019 but becomes an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season and even if the Saints look elsewhere for help at the position, the future at the position is secured for the 23-year old rookie and like most rookies, patience required is the reason for the major value. You will be glad you made this selection in two or three years.
For more on Trautman’s impact on dynasty in 2020, check out this NFC South Draft review article.
CONCLUSION
ADP is ever-changing. If you pick near the range where these players are going, shoot your shot. Be aggressive by using the DLF Trade Analyzer to find a deal if you do not have any picks. Each of these player selections highlights good values and looking at your overall roster and player portfolio like a stock will go a long way to helping you build a true dynasty!
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
