Twenty Facts to Know Before Your Rookie Drafts
Now that the 2020 NFL Draft is complete, it’s time for dynasty owners to re-evaluate this class and make adjustments for their upcoming rookie drafts. To assist in the re-evaluation process, here are 20 stats every owner should know about this class before your rookie drafts. Unless otherwise specified, all stats are since 2000.
Quarterbacks
FACT ONE
There have been seven quarterbacks drafted in the first round with 10,000+ passing yards and 95+ passing touchdowns in college. Only three of those seven quarterbacks had at least one top-12 season (Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, and Chad Pennington). Justin Herbert becomes the eighth quarterback to enter this list.
FACT TWO
First round QBs with 60 or fewer touchdowns on 1,000+ attempts in three collegiate seasons: Josh Freeman, Josh Rosen, Paxton Lynch, and Jordan Love.
FACT THREE
Top-5 first round quarterbacks in college career yards per attempt:
1. Tua Tagovailoa (10.88)
2. Kyler Murray (10.42)
3. Cam Newton (9.95)
4. Baker Mayfield (9.86)
5. Michael Vick (9.61)
FACT FOUR
Tua is also entering the NFL with the highest career TD/INT ratio of any quarterback in college (87/11). Joe Burrow is third (78/11).
FACT FIVE
Speaking of Joe Burrow, he is the fifth quarterback to enter the NFL with 8,500 or more passing yards and 800 or more rushing yards in fewer than 40 games. The other four? Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson.
Running Backs
FACT SIX
Running backs drafted in the second round with 5,000+ total yards (rushing and receiving) in under 45 games: LaMichael James, Dalvin Cook, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Jonathan Taylor, and J.K. Dobbins.
FACT SEVEN
Among running backs drafted in the second round, here are the top-5 backs in college career yards per carry (min. 600 carries):
1. Jonathan Taylor (6.67)
2. LaMichael James (6.59)
3. Dalvin Cook (6.50)
4. Nick Chubb (6.29)
5. J.K. Dobbins (6.15)
*Note: D’Andre Swift recorded a 6.56 career YPC on 440 rush attempts.
FACT EIGHT
Of the 10 running backs drafted in the first round outside the top-25, only four had a top-24 fantasy season their rookie year. Those who did received at least 170 carries and 40 targets in those years. The two most recent picks prior to Clyde Edwards-Helaire this year were Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel, both in 2018.
FACT NINE
AJ Dillon’s 24.14 attempts per game is sixth highest among all college running backs (min 100 carries). Dillon also posted the fifth fewest college career receptions with only 21 in 35 games (among running backs with at least 500 carries).
FACT TEN
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the highest drafted running back under an Andy Reid head coached team. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is also the highest drafted running back under a Bruce Arians’ head coached team.
Wide Receivers
FACT ELEVEN
280 wide receivers attended the NFL Combine after playing in college for four or more seasons and then were drafted in the NFL Draft. Of those 280 receivers, only 52 (18.5%) had one or more top-36 fantasy seasons in the NFL. There are currently six receivers in the top-26 of DLF rookie ADP who attended college for four or more seasons: Denzel Mims, Bryan Edwards, Michael Pittman, Brandon Aiyuk, Antonio Gandy-Golden, and Tyler Johnson.
FACT TWELVE
Of the 52 receivers with top-36 fantasy seasons from the stat above, 27 of those receivers were drafted in the first two rounds. 12 of those receivers were drafted on Day 3. This gives hope to Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, and Denzel Mims, but casts a dark shadow on Antonio Gandy-Golden and Tyler Johnson.
FACT THIRTEEN
Henry Ruggs and Brandon Aiyuk become the ninth and tenth wide receivers drafted in the first round with fewer than 100 receptions and 2000 receiving yards in their college career.
1. Kelvin Benjamin
2. Cordarrelle Patterson
3. Anthony Gonzalez
4. Troy Williamson
5. Andre Johnson
6. Donte’ Stallworth
7. Javon Walker
8. Travis Taylor
This group has a combined 43 WR4 or worse seasons and 12 top-24 seasons (Andre Johnson accounts for eight of those top-24 seasons).
FACT FOURTEEN
Brandon Aiyuk becomes the fifth wide receiver drafted in the first round to begin his college career at a JUCO. He joins Javon Walker, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kevin White, and Marquise Brown.
FACT FIFTEEN
First round wide receivers with a 28+ BMI:
1. Demaryius Thomas
2. Rod Gardner
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Kendall Wright
5. DeAndre Hopkins
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Michael Crabtree
8. Dwayne Bowe
9. Laquon Treadwell
10. Kelvin Benjamin
11. D.J. Moore
12. Jalen Reagor
13. Dez Bryant
14. N’Keal Harry
15. Andre Johnson
This group alone accounts for 54% of the total top-5 seasons and 43% of the total top-12 seasons among first round wide receivers.
FACT SIXTEEN
Justin Jefferson becomes the ninth Power-5 receiver drafted in the first round with a 100+ reception season in college:
1. Rashaun Woods
2. Justin Blackmon
3. Sammy Watkins
4. Michael Crabtree
5. Amari Cooper
6. Brandin Cooks
7. Jeremy Maclin
8. Nelson Agholor
All but Woods (injuries) and Blackmon (what could have been) have at least one top-24 season in the NFL.
Tight Ends
FACT SEVENTEEN
Out of 82 drafted tight ends who have entered the NFL with 60 or fewer college career receptions, only six (7.3%) have had at least one top-12 season: George Kittle, Richard Rodgers, Travis Kelce, Jordan Cameron, Jimmy Graham, and Visanthe Shiancoe. Cole Kmet and Thaddeus Moss enter the NFL with 60 and 53 receptions, respectively.
FACT EIGHTEEN
Of the 31 tight ends with multiple TE1 seasons, only four (13%) were drafted on Day 3.
FACT NINETEEN
Tight ends with a sub-4.6 40-yard dash and a 20+% college career touchdown percentage:
- Jimmy Graham
- Noah Fant
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- George Kittle
FACT TWENTY
Harrison Bryant is the ninth tight end to enter the NFL with over 2000 receiving yards in their college career. Bryant hit the milestone on the fewest games and the second fewest receptions.
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