A View from the 1.01: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now just mere hours away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
1.01
The Pick: Jonathan Taylor, RB
Following an impressive Combine performance, including the fastest 40 time among all backs, Taylor claimed the top spot in rookie drafts as the near-consensus 1.01. Taylor has then numbers on his side as one of the most productive college rushers of all time, highlighted by three straight seasons with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Some nitpick with Taylor, criticizing his limited pass-catching output or his heavy college workload and most NFL mock drafts have Taylor being selected as the second or third back. If he is not the top pick, these could be some of the reasons.
Possible Pivots
Despite Taylor’s current stranglehold on the top spot, there are other very reasonable options, including D’Andre Swift and JK Dobbins. In most leagues, the identity of the 1.01 will likely come down to draft capital and landing spot.
Trade Value
1.01 for DeAndre Hopkins
1.01, Will Fuller, Kareem Hunt for Davante Adams, 2.04
1.01, Josh Rosen, Paul Richardson for Ezekiel Elliott, Kirk Cousins
Super-Flex Options: Joe Burrow, QB
We have known that Heisman Trophy winner Burrow would be the pick of the Cincinnati Bengals for months and as tempting as many of the running backs might be, Burrow looks to be just as safe atop superflex rookie drafts.
2.01
The Pick: Laviska Shenault, WR
After his breakout sophomore season in 2018, Shenault has been a top target in dynasty leagues, though his stock has fallen since then. The Colorado receiver dealt with nagging injuries throughout this past season and failed to even crack 800 receiving yards. Shenault has even endured a pair of injuries since the season ended, which required surgery that cost him the Combine. Despite the injury woes, Shenault has remained a popular pick late in the first round or early on day two in recent NFL mock drafts.
Possible Pivots
While this is obviously different for each dynasty player, I currently see a tier break after the top 13, so if Shenault moves back into the first round, another receiver like Tee Higgins or Denzel Mims would take his place and be an easy pick.
Trade Value
2.01, 2.02 for 2.16, 2021 1st
2.01, Ronald Jones for Aaron Jones
2.01, Marvin Jones for Nyheim Hines, 2.04
Super-Flex Options: Justin Jefferson, WR
After a breakout season, Jefferson has soared up draft boards, both in the NFL and for dynasty players. That ascension continued after a strong Combine performance and now Jefferson is seemingly guaranteed to be a first-round pick. In a normal year, Jefferson would not fall outside of the top twelve, but a strong quarterback class and the superflex format combine to push very talented players to the second round.
3.01
The Pick: Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR
There are many reasons to be excited about Gandy-Golden as an NFL prospect though some dynasty players can’t seem to overlook the receiver’s small school status. Gandy-Golden’s big frame and physical play remind me of Kenny Golladay and that makes him an easy investment in the third round.
Possible Pivots
Other players currently being drafted in the late-second/early-third round range include Antonio Gibson, KJ Hamler and Tyler Johnson. This is becoming a hot spot for high-upside, low-risk wideouts.
Trade Value
3.01, 2021 3rd for 2.10
3.01, 3.04, 3.05 for 2.11, 2021 3rd
3.01, 4.05, 4.11 for 2.06
Super-Flex Options: Antonio Gibson, WR
Despite limited college production, the versatile Gibson has been a fast riser in the dynasty community. It is still unclear if Gibson will be used as a receiver or a running back and it might not matter.
4.01
The Pick: Jordan Love, QB
Even after a disappointing final college season at Utah State, Love is routinely being projected as a first-round NFL Draft pick, dynasty players aren’t nearly as confident in his ability. Love has the big arm that excites many teams but seems to lack some fundamentals that might be necessary to last in the league.
Possible Pivots
Other players being selected in this range include Darrynton Evans and Hunter Bryant.
Super-Flex Options: Lynn Bowden, WR
The versatile Bowden played receiver and quarterback for Kentucky last year and somehow led the SEC in rushing. Don’t count on him actually being available in the fourth round once the draft takes place.
- Monday Mocks: Expert 2024 Rookie Mock Draft - April 22, 2024
- Monday Mocks: 2024 Landing Spots - April 15, 2024
- Five Landing Spots That Would Tank Rookie WR Value - April 13, 2024
