A View from the 1.03: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 22, 2020

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than 30 hours away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

1.03

The Pick: CeeDee Lamb, WR

The top receiver drafted in our latest rookie ADP data is Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, who enjoyed a monster final season for the Sooners. While Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy is knocked for his relatively limited production on a stacked team, Lamb has produced huge numbers playing alongside Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, among others. Tall and lanky, Lamb can line up anywhere on the field and is a very smooth receiver.

Possible Pivots

You don’t need me to tell you that the 1.03 is netting a very exciting prospect this year. If it’s not Lamb, it will be D’Andre Swift, JK Dobbins or Jerry Jeudy.

Trade Value

1.03, 2.10 for 1.02
1.03, 2.09 for Tyreek Hill
1.03, Miles Boykin for Juju Smith-Schuster

Super-Flex Options: Jonathan Taylor, RB

The statistical output for Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor is just silly. He averaged over 2,000 yards from scrimmage in his three collegiate years along with 50 rushing touchdowns. There are no real concerns with Taylor as a runner, though some might be worried about his lack of involvement in the passing game or his overall heavy workload before entering the NFL. It feels like we are really stretching for reasons not to like an elite prospect. Taylor is a gift at the 1.03 pick, even in the super-flex format.

2.03

The Pick: Joe Burrow, QB

We already know LSU quarterback Joe Burrow will be the top overall pick of the Cincinnati Bengals and awaiting him is a solid group of offensive weapons, including Joe Mixon, AJ Green and Tyler Boyd. With veteran Andy Dalton likely gone via trade, Burrow should have the job from day one. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Burrow and the entire LSU offense enjoyed one of the best seasons in college football history. Burrow can immediately be valued as a top-12 dynasty option at his position.

Possible Pivots

Even after Kyler Murray’s success last season, there are still some dynasty players who may be hesitant to even spend an early second round rookie pick on the quarterback position. If that is you, instead consider AJ Dillon, Zack Moss, Bryan Edwards or Brandon Aiyuk.

Trade Value

2.03, 2.04 for TY Hilton
2.03 for Rashaad Penny, Ian Thomas, 3.12
2.03, Jonnu Smith, Tyrell Williams for 1.12

Super-Flex Options: Denzel Mims, WR

Baylor’s Denzel Mims has had a triumphant rise up the ranks since the college season ended. Mims was the star of the Senior Bowl and then kept up the hype by dominating the Combine, showing off his 4.38 speed – that put him in contention to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts. In the super-flex format, he falls outside of that range, to the benefit of dynasty players.

3.03

The Pick: Eno Benjamin, RB

After a huge 2018 season, Arizona State’s Eno Benjamin struggled through an injury-riddled 2019 season, decimating his fantasy value. Benjamin is best suited as a pass-catching back and his size is a bit of a concern after weighing in at under 200 pounds oat the Senior Bowl. He did bulk up by the Combine and was up to 207 pounds, but that was clearly not his playing weight. Benjamin is an elusive and sometimes even a wild runner with the ball in his hands.

Possible Pivots

If you don’t believe in Benjamin, other options at this point of the third round include Tyler Johnson, Chase Claypool, Antonio Gandy-Golden and KJ Hamler.

Trade Value

3.03 for Teddy Bridgewater, 4.03
3.03, Leonard Fournette for Robert Woods, Parris Campbell, 3.03
3.03 for Drew Brees

Super-Flex Options: Jacob Eason, QB

At one point early in the pre-draft process, Washington quarterback Jacob Eason was getting some first-round buzz. That has since died down but Eason is still a presumed day two pick and could be viewed as a future starter. All of that makes him an easy player to gamble on at this point of a super-flex format.

4.03

The Pick: Devin Duvernay, WR

After a rough start to his college career, which included transferring away from a troubled Baylor program, Devin Duvernay ended on a high note, with a big senior season. Duvernay is a speedster and a deep threat and will play from the slot, showing off his strong hands. He has occasionally showed up in the third round of NFL mock drafts. If that played out, he likely wouldn’t last until the fourth round of rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots

Other fourth-round targets include Hunter Bryant, DeeJay Dallas, Darrynton Evans and Albert Okwuegbunam.

Super-Flex Options: Albert Okweugbunam, TE

My current TE1, Okwuegbunam shows up as a fourth-round option in super-flex formats and would be an absolute steal. After a stellar career at Missouri, Okwuegbunam showed out at the Combine, running a surprising 4.49 40 even with a 6’5”, 258-pound frame. Likely a third-round pick in the NFL, if Albert O. lands in a friendly spot, he will be a fast riser.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.