Smashbuckler: The Dynasty Impact of Rob Gronkowski in Tampa Bay

Ken Kelly

There have been rumors swirling about Rob Gronkowski‘s retirement not exactly being permanent, but things escalated really quickly today. The New England Patriots were informed by Gronkowski that he wanted to come back and play….but only with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. New England decided to get something instead of nothing for him and traded the rights to Gronkowski, along with a seventh round pick in this year’s draft in exchange for a fourth round pick in this Thursday’s NFL Draft. The move is a very interesting one in dynasty circles and impacts the values of many players. Let’s take a look at those players affected by the sudden un-retirement of a future Hall of Fame tight end.

Rob Gronkowski, TE TB

The last time we saw Gronkowski, he was really banged up physically and mentally as he posted just 47 catches for 682 receiving yards and three touchdowns in 2018, his ninth season in New England. A year off for him has obviously rejuvenated his spirits and the excitement of going to a new team with his old quarterback was obviously too much for him to pass on.

So, now what.

There’s no question Gronkowski is one of the greatest tight ends of all-time. Those who have played in dynasty leagues for some time obviously remember his epic 2011 season where he posted a 90/1,327/17 line in what has to be considered one of, if not THE greatest season in the history of the position. Over his nine seasons, Gronkowski has recorded an obscene 521 catches for 7,861 yards and a whopping 79 touchdowns. However, he’s also habitually banged up and has played all 16 games just twice and those were his first two seasons in 2010 and 2011.

In Tampa, Brady will get his ultimate security blanket back. However, it’s fair to wonder just what Gronkowksi has left in the tank and while things look great on paper, Bruce Arians hasn’t exactly used his tight ends the way fantasy owners have loved and the fact is, the 31-year old Gronkowski only played in 35 of a possible 48 games over his final three seasons. Still, defenses won’t be able to roll too much coverage his way as they risk leaving Mike Evans or Chris Godwin running free.  The fit seems to work, but expecting more than something like a 45/650/6 campaign from Gronkowski may be asking too much, even though he’s caught more passes from Tom Brady than anyone not named Wes Welker or Julian Edelman.

In short, Gronkowski is back on the radar as a back-end TE1 and a great target for a contender to go after if they’re one tight end piece away. However, expecting vintage Gronkowski to compete with the likes of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, George Kittle and others to be a top-tier tight end seems like a bit of wishful thinking. Expect his ADP to come off life support, but make sure you pay today’s prices for Gronkowski, not those from five years ago. It’s an exciting opportunity here, but not one to sell the farm to get a piece of.

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OJ Howard, TE TB

If OJ Howard is still on this roster after this weekend, color me shocked. At this point, Howard is in real need of a new change of scenery. If he doesn’t get it, I don’t exactly see some kind of Gronkowski/Hernandez-like dual TE1 renaissance under Arians. Howard’s ADP is in total flux until we see where he could land. If anything, he could be a buy low candidate for savvy owners who aggressive in the next 48 hours. If he stays in Tampa Bay, this is going to be a mess of a season for him.

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Cameron Brate, TE TB

The loser in this deal is very likely going to be Cameron Brate. He’s had his moments throughout this years, but he’s again going to be playing second or third fiddle. While Tom Brady is simply the best at finding whoever is open, Brate is looking like a touchdown dependent player with the likes of Evans, Gronkowski and Godwin all getting targets before him.

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Tom Brady, QB TB

Brady has been frustrated at his lack of weapons over the past few years. Those complaints won’t happen in Tampa. However, he may want to complain about his defense eventually. A move like this certainly can’t hurt Brady, but it’s still fair to wonder just what kind of numbers he’s going to put up. I wrote about this very subject when he signed.

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Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, WRs TB

I’ve been adamant all off-season that these two haven’t seen their value rise with the addition of Brady. After all, Jameis Winston threw for 5,000 yards and over 30 touchdowns last season, doing much of that by force-feeding these two. With Gronkowski in tow, a few more targets are likely going to be taken away from them. I just see their ADP and value is even. There could be some short-term fluctuation here, but these are two premier wide receivers and should be valued as such. Our own Johnny Kinsley wrote about these two and I think it’s a great read if you missed it.

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ken kelly