A View from the 1.12: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 11, 2020

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than two weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

1.12

The Pick: Tee Higgins, WR

The Clemson star has seen his draft stock, both in dynasty leagues and in the NFL, take a hit since the college season concluded. Higgins opted to sit out of the Combine workouts, opting instead to wait for his Pro Day. That decision didn’t exactly work out as both his 40 time and his vertical jump were a big disappointment. Because of that, he is in danger of falling out of Round One of the NFL Draft. The silver lining for Higgins could be that a late first-round spot likely means he lands in a favorable position with a good quarterback.

Possible Pivots

If you have some doubts about Higgins, or if he falls further than expected, this pick still looks primed to be a wide receiver. Other options in this tier include Laviska Shenault and Denzel Mims.

Trade Value

1.12, 3.04 for Brandin Cooks, 2.08
1.12, 2021 2nd for Courtland Sutton
1.12, Vance McDonald for Tyler Higbee

Super-Flex Options: Henry Ruggs, WR

With a minimum of three quarterbacks going in the first round of super-flex rookie drafts, the deep second tier of receivers will fall to the end of the round and players like Henry Ruggs will be there waiting.

2.12

The Pick: KJ Hamler, WR

There was some buzz building around Penn State slot man KJ Hamler until we learned his true measurements. Coming in at 5’9” and 178 pounds, there is now some real concern if a player that size can make an impact, putting him in the territory of Jamison Crowder and Cole Beasley. A perfect landing spot could boost Hamler’s stock, but otherwise he’ll be a player to avoid in the second round.

Possible Pivots

If you’re like me and have doubts about Hamler, you could instead target a pair of Antonios as both Antonio Gandy-Golden and Antonio Gibson are coming off the board in this range.

Trade Value

2.12 for Duke Johnson
2.12, Anthony Miller for Jack Doyle, Jamaal Williams
2.12, 2021 2nd, Ross Dwelley for David Johnson

Super-Flex Options: Michael Pittman, WR

All Michael Pittman did is produce at one of the nation’s traditional football powerhouses. The big-bodied wideout seems to be a player the NFL likes more than dynasty players – that will most likely result in Pittman being a post-Draft riser in rookie drafts.

3.12

The Pick: Darrynton Evans, RB

The explosive back from Appalachian State, Darrynton Evans can do it all, despite being a bit undersized. With Evans presumed role as a third-down back with upside and his special teams skills, Evans should be an early pick on the draft’s third day. If he comes off the board any earlier than that, he’ll be zooming up dynasty drafts.

Possible Pivots

Other players to consider with this pick include tight ends Albert Okwuegbunam or Hunter Bryant and quarterback Jordan Love.

Trade Value

3.12, Chris Godwin for 1.03, Royce Freeman
3.12 for Auden Tate
3.12, Jalen Hurd, 2021 3rd for Jack Doyle

Super-Flex Options: Chase Claypool, WR

Entering the February Combine, there were reports Claypool would potentially be moving from wide receiver to tight end. After he impressed in the speed and agility drills, joining Calvin Johnson as the only receivers in Combine history to run a sub-4.45 40 while weighing in at 235+ pounds.

4.12

The Pick: Gabriel Davis, WR

Under-the-radar receiver Gabriel Davis hasn’t received the attention of most dynasty players despite being routinely projected as a day two pick according to NFL mock drafts. Davis has a nice combination of size and deep-threat ability and is a lock to quickly climb up rookie rankings.

Possible Pivots

With Davis unlikely to actually fall this far post-Draft, you’ll need another plan. Other players falling to this late portion of the draft include Adam Trautman, Collin Johnson and Harrison Bryant.

Super-Flex Options: Lamical Perine, RB

The bulky cousin of Samaje, Lamical Perine doesn’t stand out in any one specific area but is a solid all-around back who may be destined for a backup role in the league.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.